Angola announced its withdrawal from OPEC;

Overview of the global market

U.S. GDP and inflation data reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts, with the Nasdaq up more than 1%, the S&P up 1%, and the Dow near record highs. The 10-year Treasury yield quickly turned downward, hitting a new five-month low, but turned higher intraday, and the dollar index accelerated its decline to a four-month low.

Divisions within OPEC have deepened, with Angola, Africa's second-largest oil producer, announcing that it will withdraw from OPEC. Crude oil fell for the first time this week, falling off its monthly high. Gold rebounded, approaching its high level in more than two weeks. London copper rebounded to a nearly three-week high.

Global news

1. U.S. GDP and PCE index unexpectedly revised down in the third quarter

The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the third quarter was 4.9%, less than the expected 5.20%. The final QoQ rate of real personal consumption expenditures in the United States for the third quarter came in at 3.1%, below expectations of 3.6%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for the third quarter was recorded at 2%, below expectations of 2.30%.

2. The focus of the OPEC+ meeting is that Angola will withdraw from the Organization of Oil Producing Countries, and oil prices are lower

Given the contradictions within OPEC in recent months, Angola's decision to leave is not entirely unexpected. While this may raise concerns about OPEC's cohesion, it will not affect the output outlook. Because Angola is already in full production. However, the market is watching to see if other OPEC members will follow in Angola's footsteps.

3. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt: In terms of reducing inflation, the Bank of England still needs to do more

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said that the Bank of England still needs to do more to reduce inflation, hopes that the financial services agreement with Switzerland will serve as a template for negotiations between the UK and others, that the UK is "eager" to attract corporate investment from around the world, and that the UK does not know whether it will be able to reduce tax rates "for some time".

4. Argentine President Milley signed a decree to further deregulate the economy

Argentine President Milley announced in a nationally televised speech on the evening of December 20 local time that he had signed an economic reform decree, announcing a series of measures to deregulate the Argentine economy, including the privatization of state-owned enterprises, the lifting of export restrictions and the end of price controls, and the repeal of a series of laws on rent, supply and freight. Milley listed the initial 30 policies, adding that the broader plan contained about 300 measures. He said Argentina's crisis stemmed from financial problems.

5. The United States announced that it would add 13 Chinese entities to the "unverified list" of export controls, and the Ministry of Commerce responded

On December 19, local time, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that it would add 13 Chinese entities to the "unverified list" of export controls. In this regard, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce said that China has taken note of the relevant situation. China firmly opposes the US practice of ignoring the facts of bilateral cooperation, undermining the foundation of bilateral cooperation, hindering enterprises from carrying out normal economic and trade activities, and undermining market rules and the international economic and trade order. China will resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

6. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Next year, the city will implement policies and one city policy to achieve a balance between real estate supply and demand

Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, stressed at the meeting that next year the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will implement policies according to the city and one city and one policy to achieve a balance between real estate supply and demand; further intensify the implementation of the policy of first and second housing units; implement territorial responsibilities for the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings, strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, and speed up the reform of the pre-sale system; and meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will work with the State Administration of Financial Supervision to guide real estate financing.

7. The People's Bank of China held an expert forum on the economic and financial situation

The central bank held an expert forum on the economic and financial situation to study the current economic and financial situation and listen to relevant opinions and suggestions. Pan Gongsheng, Secretary of the Party Committee and Governor of the Central Bank, said that the Central Bank will fully absorb the opinions and suggestions of experts, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, match the scale of social financing and money supply with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels, maintain reasonable credit growth, stable rhythm and structural optimization, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the sustained economic recovery.

8. The deposit interest rate was lowered for the third time this year: the interest rate on long-term deposits fell even more, and ICBC took the lead

After more than three months, the deposit interest rate of major state-owned banks has been "lowered" again, and ICBC took the lead in issuing a notice to reduce the listed deposit interest rate from December 22, 2023, mainly involving 3-month, 6-month, one-year, two-year, three-year, five-year time deposits and large-amount certificates of deposit.

According to the analysis, the net interest margin of banks continues to decline, and the reduction of deposit interest rates will help ease the pressure on the liability side.

Industry information

1. From January 1, 2024, the mainland will adjust the import and export tariffs of some commodities

The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that the import and export tariffs of some commodities will be adjusted from January 1, 2024, and the mainland will implement provisional import tariffs lower than the most-favored-nation tax rate for 1,010 goods. According to the development of domestic industries and changes in supply and demand, within the scope of the mainland's commitment to join the World Trade Organization, the import tariffs on some commodities such as ethylene, propylene, and liquid crystal glass substrates below 6 generations will be increased. In 2024, the treaty rate will be applied to some goods originating in 30 countries or regions under the 20 agreements. The China-Nicaragua Free Trade Agreement will come into force on January 1, 2024, with reduced tariffs. In 2024, the domestic sub-items will be appropriately adjusted, and tax items such as decorative base paper and high-end steel products will be added. After the adjustment, the total number of tariff items is 8,957.

2. Ministry of Transport: From January to November this year, the investment in fixed assets of transportation completed 3.6 trillion yuan

Li Yang, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Transport, said that in the past year, the comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network has become denser and denser. The main skeleton of the national comprehensive three-dimensional network we have developed is "6 axes, 7 corridors and 8 channels". At the same time, the fixed asset investment in transportation was 3.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months. This year, integrated transport services are even more convenient. Focusing on "people enjoy their travel", 336 cities have been promoted to realize the interconnection of transportation cards, and a total of 20,000 charging piles have been built in highway service areas across the country, mainly for the rapid development of electric vehicles. International cruise transportation within the territory has been fully resumed.

3. Silicon Industry Branch: Mono-Si wafer prices suffered an irrational decline this week

According to the data released by the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, prices suffered an irrational decline this week, with P-type M10 wafer inventories being sold off intensively, and N-type wafers being relatively supported. The average transaction price of M10 mono-Si wafers (182 mm/150μm) dropped to RMB 1.92/pc, down 7.69% week-on-week. The average transaction price of N-type mono-Si wafers (182 mm/130μm) dropped to RMB 2.18/piece, down 4.39% week-on-week. The average transaction price of G12 mono-Si wafers (210 mm/150μm) dropped to RMB 3.02/pc, down 7.36% week-on-week.

4. Renewable energy accounts for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation capacity

According to the National Energy Administration, in 2023, renewable energy in the mainland will become a new force to ensure power supply, with a total installed capacity of 1.45 billion kilowatts within the year, accounting for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation capacity, and a historic 3 trillion kilowatt-hours of installed thermal power generation, accounting for about 1/3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power has exceeded the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in the same period, accounting for more than 15% of the electricity consumption of the whole society.

5. Counterpoint: Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 5% year-on-year in 2023

According to a report released by analyst agency Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 5% year-on-year in 2023 to reach 1.2 billion units, the lowest level in nearly a decade. However, fourth-quarter shipments are expected to increase 3% year-over-year to 312 million units.

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