New energy vehicles lose another crutch, but some brands will fall

Lead

Introduction

Will you have to pay purchase tax for your new energy vehicle next year?

Author丨Fan Shuqi

Editor丨Shi Jie

Editor丨Jin Penghui

I still remember that back then, new energy vehicles were sold to subsidize one, but I didn't expect that even the purchase tax reduction and exemption policy would be reduced in the blink of an eye.

Next year, although users who buy new energy vehicles still do not have to pay vehicle purchase tax, the maximum tax exemption will not exceed 30,000 yuan, and users who buy new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027 will need to pay half of the vehicle purchase tax, and the tax reduction for each new energy passenger car will not exceed 15,000 yuan.

The upper limit of the purchase tax reduction and exemption amount means that the high-end new energy market of more than 300,000 yuan will also usher in a wave of shocks, and the involution of the mid-end new energy market will undoubtedly rise by an order of magnitude.

In addition, not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Technical Requirements for New Energy Vehicle Products for Reducing and Reducing Vehicle Purchase Tax", which clarified the technical requirements and transitional policies for new energy vehicles that meet the tax exemption standards after 2024.

Specifically, the "announcement" has made three adjustments to the technical requirements of new energy vehicles, the most important of which is to improve the existing technical indicators such as vehicle energy consumption, driving range, and energy density of power battery system: the maximum speed of pure electric vehicles in 30 minutes is not less than 100km/h, the mileage of pure electric vehicles is not less than 200km, and the energy density of battery packs is not less than 125Wh/kg.

At present, the pure electric passenger cars with a driving range of less than 200km in the market are mainly A00 class vehicles, accounting for 39% of A00 class electric vehicle sales in 2023, which means that most mini cars will have to adjust their cruising range next year, which is a big blow to the micro car market.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association, explained the impact of the new policy on the new energy vehicle market: "The biggest impact of this policy is A00 class passenger cars, and the most beneficial are high-priced and low-tech niche products. ”

In any case, the "crutch" in the new energy driver will gradually throw away one more, reflecting the further maturity and improvement of the industry.

"De-low-end" again?

In the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, there is a trend of "big at both ends and small in the middle", that is, low-cost scooters below 100,000 yuan and high-end new forces above 200,000 yuan take the lead in development, and the average price of passenger cars is the most mainstream range of 10~200,000 yuan, and the "action" of new energy vehicles is relatively limited.

Therefore, the new purchase tax policy just conforms to the process of industrial development and is conducive to promoting the growth of the mainstream price band in the middle.

Starting from the low-end of the "two-end big", for civilian new energy vehicles, due to the lack of the "super toy" attribute of high-end new energy vehicles, as well as the demand of consumers with high purchasing power, if they bear the low-end notoriety of "old man happy face" for a long time, it is not conducive to mainstream development.

Small-level new energy vehicles can still be refined, provided that the performance and workmanship are higher than before, which is obviously the direction of the purchase tax policy.

From the observation of the development process, low-end new energy vehicles cannot be easily abandoned in terms of scale.

In the second half of 2020, the "god car" Wuling Hongguang MINI was born, because of the advantages of low price and flexible control, it has killed all sides in the Chinese auto market, which has also driven the rapid growth of the A00 electric vehicle track in the past three years.

By this year, according to the statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the field of A00 class mini vehicles has reached 100%. The market share of new energy mini vehicles accounts for nearly 1/3 of the entire new energy market.

It can be said that from the perspective of promoting the penetration rate of new energy, the existence of A00 electric vehicles has a certain significance, but now, since the penetration rate has been established, the mission has been basically completed, and it is time for the state to take action to regulate consumer purchase preferences through policies.

Previously, the tax-free standard for new energy vehicles was that the pure electric range was not less than 100km, but now the threshold has been raised to 200km, and the battery cost of manufacturers has increased by more than a little bit. As a result, future mini cars may not be able to compete with A0 and A-class cars in terms of cost performance. Therefore, the issuance of the "Announcement" may be a means for the country to phase out the A00 class car and this kind of old man-like product.

Of course, this policy will definitely suffer a bunch of mini cars and the car companies behind them, especially the A00 electric vehicles account for a large proportion of the group's new energy sales, this new policy is estimated to make them very big.

Wuling and Chery are the most important players on the mini car track, Wuling accounts for nearly half of the market share, Chery accounts for nearly 20% of the market share, and the sales of new energy vehicles of these two companies mainly come from A00 class cars, so these two companies are most hurt by the new policy.

The Wuling Hongguang MINI EV currently sells models in the price range of 32,800-99,900 yuan, and its 2022 models have a range of 120km-170km, which obviously does not meet the conditions for purchase tax exemption. Wuling's other models, Binguo's 203km light and comfortable models, will not be able to enjoy purchase tax exemption because the battery mass energy density of 121Wh/kg is not up to standard.

Another example is some models of Chery QQ ice cream, with a pure electric range of 120km and 170km respectively, and the battery mass energy density is less than 125Wh/kg, which obviously does not meet the technical standards.

For Wuling, the market for A00-class cars is already shrinking, and after the purchase tax is reduced, the sales of its A00-class cars will inevitably shrink further, and the same will be true for A0-class cars. At that time, if it wants to have a place in the twisted Chinese auto market, it can only accelerate the jump to the A-class car market. After coming to the A-class car market, how should it deal with BYD's squeeze? After the not too successful attempts of Baojun Yunduo and Wuling Starlight, how should Wuling's product leap go?

As for Chery, it is luckier than Wuling in that it has C-DM plug-in hybrid technology, in the future, if it can improve the chaotic product system and marketing strategy, the decline of micro new energy sales, it may not be too big a deal.

High-end new energy: squeeze out the water, fire to refine the real gold

Let's talk about the high-end new energy market that is also injured, in this part of the market, not all products will be affected by the new policy.

For 40-500,000 high-end models, the decline of the purchase tax is estimated to be limited to them, after all, the customer base of this part of the product positioning will most likely not care about the tens of thousands of purchase tax.

However, for models in the price range of 300,000-350,000 yuan, after the purchase tax is reduced, their target customers are likely to set their sights on models below 300,000 yuan, not to mention that the products available in the price range of 200,000 yuan are gradually enriched. But this possibility is not ruled out: in order to retain users, products priced at 30-350,000 such as ZEEKR 001 will be reduced to a certain extent next year.

It is also worth mentioning that the country's purchase tax policy is relatively friendly to NIO.

According to the "Announcement on Extending and Optimizing the Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption Policy for New Energy Vehicles" in June this year, "when selling 'battery swap mode' new energy vehicles, the sales of new energy vehicles without power batteries and power batteries shall be calculated separately and invoices shall be issued separately, and the tax-exclusive price stated in the corresponding uniform invoice for the sales of motor vehicles of new energy vehicles without power batteries shall be used as the taxable price of vehicle acquisition tax." ”

In short, if consumers buy a battery-swapped model, they can levy a purchase tax on the price of the vehicle after stripping off the power battery, so that the advantages of NIO's battery-swapping mode will be more obvious. It is no wonder that Changan, Geely and other car companies have recently announced cooperation with NIO and joined the battery swap army.

It can also be seen through the policy that the state encourages the energy supplement mode of battery swapping, and car companies may also increase R&D investment in battery swap mode models and removable batteries under the influence of the government.

Therefore, in the face of the new deal, high-end new energy will undergo a test of fire refining real gold, and the brand models that really have advantages in technology, service and brand power will be "he is strong and he is strong, and the breeze blows the mountain".

New energy is further embracing mainstreaming

While the new policy hits the 300-350,000 new energy market, it is also likely to bring volatility to the mainstream market of 10-300,000.

As mentioned above, since some users who originally budgeted at 30-350,000 yuan may choose 200,000-level models because of the purchase tax, then car companies are likely to increase the layout in the price range of 200,000 yuan;

In fact, since 2022, the market structure of China's new energy vehicles has gradually transitioned from a "dumbbell type" dominated by low-end cars to a "spindle-shaped" dominated by low-end cars. "It can be seen that the development of the new energy market is gradually becoming balanced.

This year, this trend is more obvious, Chang'an Qiyuan, Geely Galaxy, etc. have launched 10-200,000 products, and brands such as Xiaopeng, VOYAH, and Zeekrypton have made efforts in the 200,000 market. After the purchase tax policy is reduced, more players will squeeze into the low-end market, and then through full competition between them, they will bring better products to users.

When the perception of the advantages of new energy vehicles is more obvious, the penetration rate of domestic new energy is bound to further increase, so that independent brands will seize more market share from joint venture brands.

Since 2019, the state exempted new energy vehicles from purchase tax to last year, the country's tax exemption for new energy vehicles has exceeded 200 billion, and the government's investment at any cost has indeed been exchanged for domestic new energy vehicle sales, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that in 2014, China's new energy vehicle sales were only 75,000, and this year's mainland new energy sales are expected to reach 9 million.

Nowadays, the decline of the purchase tax marks that the development of the mainland's new energy industry has entered another stage, and the test of the market-oriented ability of enterprises will also rise to a new dimension. In the context of new energy vehicles becoming more mature, the impact on the main body will be relatively slight and temporary, even if there is a brand "seriously injured and falling", it is also a survival of the fittest mechanism in the turnip.

The new energy automobile industry, which is gradually throwing away the "crutches" such as subsidies and purchase tax reductions, will let the market and users witness its growth, expansion and perfection in this process, and bring the altitude of China's manufacturing industry to a new height.

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