According to the medical community, the peak of this wave of new crown infections may last until mid-to-late January 2024.
Written by | Yan Xiaoliu
A new wave of new crown infections has emerged in many parts of the world. Data from the United States for the past seven days ending December 2, 2023, showed an increase of 11.5% in positive COVID tests and 17.6% in hospitalizations, and a 25% increase in deaths. A large number of infants, young children and the elderly were admitted to the emergency department.
Positive values for the new coronavirus in wastewater surveillance in Austria, the Netherlands and other places have exceeded or approached historical peaks. The UK's Office for National Statistics restarts random testing.
The same situation is also happening in countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore that have or will soon be visa-free for Chinese tourists. On December 11, local time, Jakarta, Indonesia, reported two new crown deaths. Thailand reported three deaths a few days ago. Singapore's Ministry of Health is closely monitoring the infection trend to ensure that the healthcare system is able to respond.
Infectious disease doctors in Anhui, Shanghai and other places told the "medical community" that the number of new crown infections in the mainland is increasing. It may be that due to medical awareness, the number of tests, etc., the outpatient experience is not very obvious.
Many places predict that the peak of this wave of infections may last until mid-to-late January 2024. There are pediatric infection specialists who pray that the weather is not too cold. "If multiple pathogens are prevalent together, the combined severe disease and mortality will be high. ”
A staff member of a pharmacy in Singapore said that at present, the new crown antigen rapid self-test kit is very popular, and it can usually be sold out on the same day of purchase. Photo source/Lianhe Zaobao
Since the test agent is out of stock, many places in Asia may reach a peak before the Spring Festival
Combined with public data, this round of new crown infections has shown a short-term and rapid increase in many places.
In the seven days ending December 9, 2023, Malaysia has recorded 12,757 new confirmed cases, an increase of 711% from early November. The new crown self-test kits in many parts of the country are "urgent". A number of chain pharmacies in Kota Kinabalu said that the state of shortage and shortage of goods may last for half a month. "Some pharmacies have stock. The buying process is like a 'treasure hunt', it's all about luck. Malaysia's The Star reported.
Lianhe Zaobao visited a number of community chain pharmacies and supermarkets in Singapore and found that self-test kits will sell out quickly after being restocked. Commonly used antipyretics, cough syrup, etc. are very popular.
Singapore reported more than 32,000 new COVID-19 infections from November 26 to December 2, an increase of 45% from the previous week. The average number of daily hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions increased from 136 and 1 to 225 and 4 respectively.
During the same period, Thailand reported more than 500 new coronavirus infections. The country reported 545 COVID infections throughout November. Thailand's Center for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a notice urging the public to actively get vaccinated and wear masks when going out.
Taiwan, China, described the coronavirus outbreak as "imminent". In the seven days to Dec. 5, the region had 31 deaths and 260 severe cases, mainly among people over 65 with a history of chronic illness. The increase is the highest in nearly a month.
Singapore's infectious disease expert Leong Ho Nan told the media that the current round of new crown infections may peak in about one month. Taiwan's health authorities have made a similar statement, saying that the average number of daily infections around the Lunar New Year may reach 18,000-20,000. During the Spring Festival, the local government will launch a "special respiratory outpatient clinic" according to the situation, and adopt a triage mode for medical treatment.
Recently, on the streets of Singapore, many people wear masks to travel. Photo source/Bloomberg
The latest variant is coming
Surveillance data from many countries in Europe and the United States show that the current wave of new crown infections may be related to the epidemic of the Omicron variant JN.1. JN.1 is a descendant of the highly mutated BA.2.86 variant, first reported in the United States in September this year.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, BA.2.86 has more than 20 mutations, which may change antigenic properties and enhance immune evasion ability. On this basis, JN.1 has an important spike protein variant.
Sheena Margaret Cruickshank, a British immunologist and professor of biomedical sciences at the University of Manchester, said that in theory, the mutations make JN.1 better at binding to human cells. Coupled with its stronger immune evasion, the public is susceptible to infection.
More than 60% of infections in Singapore now originate from JN.1. According to the UK Health Security Agency, JN.1 is the fastest spreading variant in the last eight months. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of December 8, the detection rate of JN.1 soared from less than 0.1% at the end of October to 15%-29%.
There is no evidence in many countries to support that JN.1 infection is more likely to cause severe disease. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the immune escape ability of variants will vary depending on the prevalence of other variants, population immunity, vaccine coverage, etc. Singapore's Ministry of Health believes that the increase in COVID infections in the country may be due to declining herd immunity, more people traveling abroad, and increased community interaction due to the peak tourist season and festive season at the end of the year.
"The type and severity of symptoms of COVID infection depends more on an individual's immunity and overall health than on which variant they are infected with. "CDC data shows that from November 19 to November 25, the number of new coronavirus hospitalizations in the country increased by 19,444. Hospitalization rates are higher for people over 65 years of age and infants and young children under 4 years of age.
However, an exponential increase in infections could lead to an increase in the number of deaths. The rise in COVID deaths in Scandinavia, Finland and other places in Northern Europe coincided with an increase in JN.1 detection rates.
The CDC said it was unclear whether JN.1 would cause an uproar in the U.S. and cause a pandemic like in previous years, and would keep a close eye on the pandemic and JN.1. Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina, a scientific advisor, told the media that at the current rate of transmission, JN.1 could either become the dominant strain around Christmas, "or a real wave of infections around January 1, 2024."
Since November, there has been a significant increase in wastewater surveillance positive rates across the United States. Source/CDC
Many places "urged" vaccines
In late November, the World Health Organization (WHO) reclassified BA.2.86 and its subclade JN.1 as "variants of concern (VOI)". On December 1, local time, the WHO updated the recommendation manual, emphasizing that people in the northern hemisphere, especially the elderly, people with chronic diseases, and immunocompromised people, should be vaccinated against the new crown and influenza to avoid severe illness after infection.
Since then, the CDC has also pointed out that now is a good time to get the updated version of the new crown vaccine. The updated version of the vaccine is based on the Omicron variant XBB.1.5 and has good cross-reactivity against JN.1 and can produce the necessary protection.
In order to encourage vaccination, Taipei proposes that people over 50 years old who have completed the new crown and flu vaccines can receive practical life gifts on the spot. Those aged 65 and above who are vaccinated before December 31 can get an additional 500 yuan gift card and 10 new crown self-test kits on top of the above.
As of December 4, six new crown vaccines related to XBB antigen have been approved for marketing in China. Including 3 recombinant subunit vaccines (injection), 2 mRNA vaccines (injection), and 1 adenovirus type 5 recombinant vaccine (inhalation). The Xi'an Evening News reported that the updated version of the new crown vaccine has been distributed to various parts of Shaanxi Province. Xinhua news agency said that many community hospitals in Shanghai provide vaccination services. Shiyan, Hubei Province, said that people over the age of 18 can be vaccinated for free as long as they meet the conditions.