The Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, except for Big A? The reason behind it is tiring

Of course, Big A still works hard, struggles in the morning, and gives up completely in the afternoon, why is this?

You must know that the foreign capital that is in a panic today has come to buy the bottom early in the morning, and today's foreign capital is rarely in a state of net inflow.

There is no other reason, confidence collapses, why do you say that?

01

The efforts of the past five years have been completely negated.

The "conference" that has just been held has several signals of great scrutiny.

1. The statement of financial regulation mentioned in the press release of this year's meeting is as follows:

Financial chaos and corruption have persisted, and financial supervision and governance capabilities are weak.

This is basically a blanket denial, and the harsh wording is very rare.

The 2017 conference draft, which mentioned financial regulation at the time, was praised, saying:

Financial supervision has been improved, and the ability to maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks has been enhanced.

Just five years later, the authorities' attitude towards financial regulation has changed dramatically.

It is foreseeable that a storm that washes everything is about to begin.

Guys, let's put yourself in your shoes, what would you do if you were so denied as an insider?

Is it to let go of the fists and feet, open and close, or is it positive on the surface, lying flat on the inside, and following the same steps?

Anyway, if it were me, I would never do it again if I had a little bit of a risky attempt, and the reason was not complicated:

The more you do, the more you make mistakes, how to arrange the above, just take it all according to the order.

02.

In 2017, the three tasks of financial work were to serve the real economy, prevent and control financial risks, and deepen financial reform.

This time it was not lightly criticized.

To serve the real economy, this conference directly used the words "quality and efficiency are not high" to cover the coffin.

The prevention and control of financial risks is the weak capacity of financial supervision and governance.

Deepening financial reform has directly put forward new ideas: improving the management of state-owned financial capital and comprehensively strengthening financial supervision.

In fact, the manuscript of this conference was written in a rather rare and straightforward manner.

It can be summed up in one sentence:

Support large state-owned financial institutions to become bigger and stronger, as for those small and medium-sized institutions, they have been emphasizing the need to strengthen supervision and achieve 360-degree selfless supervision.

Who is for and who is against?

03

It is foreseeable that in the future, the vast majority of financial resources will be directed to state-owned enterprises again.

At this time, state-owned enterprises looked for loans from state-owned banks, and a small circle played eggs, so they borrowed the money well, arranged their business properly, and their GDP stabilized to a new high.

Whether it is a private enterprise or an individual, the capital turnover will face the anti-fraud process of "for your good".

To tell you the truth, I think it's anti-economic law, but I have to say, it's very characteristic again.

It stands to reason that finance is just a tool, it can be a catalyst, it is also a tool to improve efficiency, and it is to serve the real economy with a main business.

If there is no real economy, will financial instruments still be effective?

Reflecting the reality, the bank calls every day to recruit people for loans, but no one lends money, no matter how hard the bank tries, it is useless.

Therefore, the focus of financial work is how to make people willing to go into the bank to lend, and when everyone has this willingness, you can then consider how the bank can do better service.

And we have handed over the burden of how to spend money to state-owned enterprises... If you do it well, you will go to heaven, and if you don't do it well, you may also go to heaven.

04

In addition, we have been emphasizing how to make enterprises raise funds in the stock market, but we have never thought about where the financing money will come from without the active participation of shareholders.

Here's an example of how these two days have had a great impact on market sentiment:

Vanke.

Since September, Vanke's share price has accelerated its decline under a bunch of positive news, and now there are only more than 11 yuan left, almost falling out of a new low since 2016.

And its offshore dollar bond yields have also soared, becoming the most exaggerated in the current market.

Specifically, on October 25, the coupon yield was about 20%, and by October 30, the coupon yield soared to 54%.

Here's a little common sense, the higher the coupon yield of a bond, the greater the risk of repayment at maturity.

Do you have a sense of déjà vu, Evergrande and Country Garden also started with the double kill of stocks and bonds.

What's more interesting is that recently, international rating agencies adjusted Vanke's rating to:

Triple B, which is what we often call junk bonds.

On October 28, Vanke released its third-quarter report, and its revenue and net profit both declined by double digits, which was even more surprising.

Why did Vanke fall here?

The reason is not complicated, the policy is mistaken as a treasure, and if you are not careful, you will lose everything.

In December last year, with a stroke of the pen, the wind was released to "allow a number of real estate companies to carry out equity financing in A-shares".

Vanke began to aggressively acquire land, and in 2022, Vanke spent less than 50 billion yuan to acquire land.

In 2023, Vanke will spend 29 billion in the first half of the year.

Why does Vanke still want to take so much land even though it knows that real estate sales are not good this year?

Of course, I want to come to Big A for financing and paying off debts.

But who would have thought that the big A all the way down would let its 151 fixed increase plan collapse in the middle of the road and be forced to withdraw.

Of course, the deeper logic behind this is:

It's okay if you don't save it, the more you shout for help, the more everyone knows in their hearts that this is afraid that they are terminally ill and not saved.

This reflects a reality:

Everyone knows that the "good" about real estate now is either to draw a pie, or to raise it high and put it down gently, without reversing people's expectations of housing prices in the slightest.

05

Why is the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes, and all major capital markets are rejoicing, except for Big A?

The reason is already clear.

Everyone is stunned now, even Vanke is a family member, and Yu Liang, a top student at Peking University, is indignant.

At Vanke's media conference on October 20, when asked about the effect of the current government's real estate rescue policy, Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors, said euphemistically:

The current government policies are certainly effective, but they can also be used better.

Anyone with experience knows that the "but" is all about the scene.

In fact, in my opinion, Vanke's problem is actually very easy to solve.

Either the scale is reduced, as long as Vanke Ken comes down from the list of top real estate companies, then it is really not a big problem.

Of course, this means: layoffs, selling assets, taking less land, paying off debts...

Vanke's matter has come to this point, and it is already very clear:

If it is not his own son, then it is better to ask for others than for himself.

China's real estate companies can only save themselves, and there is only one way to save themselves.

epilogue

It should be noted that if the situation does not change, then not only real estate companies, but also the vast majority of our enterprises here need to actively save themselves.

When the entity is in recession, the financial market is naturally difficult to cook.

It is not surprising what happens in the market at this time.

Of course, what I hope most is that from the market to regulation, from the entity to the finance, can give me the courage to believe again, and embrace you beyond the lie.

Of course, in this world, not to mention that it is not easy for middle-aged people to fall in love, it is also difficult for young people to fall in love!

Congratulations, I am Xie Xiaobai, who hopes that your wealth is free.

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