Argentina is the second largest country in South America and the newest member of the BRICS. However, the political situation in the country is full of uncertainty and uncertainty. In the upcoming presidential election, Millai, a far-right candidate who advocates "all-dollarization," was ahead of his opponents, but was overtaken by the current economy minister, Massa, in the first round of voting. This result has aroused widespread attention and discussion at home and abroad. Why did Milley suffer a reversal? What does his proposed "all-dollarization" policy mean? What impact does this have for Argentina's future?
Argentina is a country with a rich history and culture that was once one of the richest countries in the world. However, in the past few decades, Argentina has experienced many economic crises and political turmoil, which have led to the decline of its national strength and the hardship of its people's livelihood. At present, Argentina is facing serious inflation, fiscal deficit, external debt pressure, and the gap between the rich and the poor, which has caused many people to lose confidence and hope in the existing political and economic system.
Against this backdrop, some far-right forces have begun to rise, trying to attract popular support through radical rhetoric and policies. The most representative of these is the presidential candidate of the Free Forward Party, Millais. Milley is a former military officer who fought in the 1982 Falklands War. Politically, he advocated nationalism, conservatism, anti-communism, pro-Americanism and other positions, and opposed immigration, homosexuality, abortion and other social issues. He also put forward one of the most controversial policy proposals, which is to implement "total dollarization", that is, the complete abolition of Argentina's legal tender, the peso, and replace it with the dollar.
According to Millais, the peso is the source of Argentina's economic problems, as it leads to inflation, devaluation, credit crunch, etc. He believed that only through dollarization could exchange rates be stabilized, interest rates lowered, investment increased, trust increased and development promoted. He also claimed that dollarization could free Argentina from the control of the International Monetary Fund and restore sovereignty and dignity. He even proposed a specific plan, including closing the central bank, consolidating or eliminating multiple ministries, and cutting public subsidies.
Millais's "all-dollar policy," while seemingly radical and unrealistic, has won some supporters, especially young and middle-class. These people are disappointed and angry with the existing political and economic system and hope to get out of it with radical changes. They believe that dollarization can free Argentina from the peso, raise living standards and increase international influence. They also believe that Millais is a bold and capable leader who can bring new hope and opportunities to Argentina.
In the August primary, Millais unexpectedly led the other candidates, receiving 30.8% of the vote, while the current Minister of Economy, Massa, received only 25.5% of the vote. The result made Millais a favorite in the election and made Argentina's political situation more complicated and uncertain. Many predicted that Millais would maintain his lead in the first round of voting and might even be elected president outright.
However, in the first round of voting on October 22, Millais suffered a reversal. The vote count showed that Massa overtook Millais with 36.6% of the vote, and the latter received only 30% of the vote. Another candidate, Blievridge, received 23.8 percent of the vote. This means that Millais and Massa will advance to a second round of voting until one side has more than 45 percent or more of the vote and more than 10 percent of the other's vote.
This result has aroused widespread attention and discussion at home and abroad. For Millais, this is a huge blow and a cautionary tale. He may have underestimated Massa's competitiveness and support, or he may have overestimated the viability and popularity of his policy ideas. He needs to recalibrate his tactics and slogans before the second round of voting, otherwise he will have a hard time turning things around.
For Massa, it was an unexpected surprise and an opportunity. He may benefit from Fernandez's government's successful entry into the BRICS, which has regained confidence in the ruling party among some middle-class and under-class businessmen. He may also benefit from awareness of the risks and costs of a full-fledged dollarization policy. He needs to continue to consolidate his strengths and supporters in the second round of voting or face a counterattack from Millais.
For Argentina, this is an important historical moment and a difficult choice. Both Millais and Massa will have a profound impact on Argentina's future. If Millais is elected president and implements a policy of full dollarization, Argentina will face problems such as monetary policy failure, insufficient foreign exchange reserves, economic instability, and high social costs. If Massa is elected president and continues the policies of the current government, Argentina will face inflation, fiscal deficits, external debt pressure, and the gap between rich and poor.
Argentina should look for more robust and sustainable economic policies, rather than going to extremes. Full dollarization is not a silver bullet to solve Argentina's economic problems, but may bring more risks and costs. Argentina should insist on its monetary sovereignty and improve the credibility and value of the peso through reform and innovation. Argentina should strengthen cooperation with other BRICS countries and use multilateral platforms to increase its international discourse and influence.
It is hoped that Argentina will be able to get out of its economic difficulties and achieve social harmony and development. It is hoped that Argentine voters will participate rationally in the general election and choose the most suitable presidential candidate for Argentina. I believe that Argentina has a bright future, as long as it can stick to its own path, continuous progress and innovation.
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