On October 24, the State Council's resolution on the issuance of additional treasury bonds and the 2023 central budget adjustment plan was adopted. This means that the central government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of this year to manage as special treasury bonds.
At the same time, within the authorized period, the State Council will issue the new local government debt limit for the following year in advance within 60% of the new local government debt limit for the current year.
This year's new local government debt limit is 4.52 trillion yuan, and at 60%, local governments will receive 2.7 trillion yuan of local debt issued in advance, and it is expected to be issued in advance in 2023.
The economic situation in the fourth quarter of this year and even next year has stabilized.
one
I thought that the economy would rebound strongly after the epidemic, but it backfired, and the downward momentum of the economy plummeted.
Take the property market, the decline has become more and more significant after the epidemic, so the key word of this year's property market is "bailout".
Relevant departments have issued a series of "bailout" policies and "combination fists" in order to guide the property market to return to a healthy and rising development track.
Those policies that continue to be introduced are not insignificant, and the direction is very clear, that is, it is hoped that the "golden nine silver ten" - this traditional gold sales season, let the favorable policies drive a strong recovery of the property market.
In the short term, the policy seems to be very effective, directly stimulating a group of buyers to enter the market, coupled with the marketing efforts of housing companies, the property market in various places has gone through a wave of small climax.
However, the policy did everything in its own way, and it failed to retain this wave of enthusiasm, it came gently and quickly left.
In the golden September, the transaction volume of first-tier cities fell by more than 30% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of second- and third-tier cities fell by more than 20% year-on-year. During the Golden Week, according to data from the China Index Research Institute, the average daily transaction area of 35 representative cities fell by about 20% compared with last year's National Day.
You know, last year's National Day was still under the high pressure of masks, and people could not move freely, but this year was not as good as last year.
This feels like a farmer who has worked hard for a year, full of expectations, not only did not usher in the expected harvest, but also failed the harvest.
The rescue policy has been wave after wave, and even first-tier cities have all implemented the policy of "recognizing housing but not loans", and the market is filled with uncontrollable excitement. However, no matter what the policy, it can only be hi for a week or two at a time, and then it goes off again.
There are many reasons why the property market cannot be saved, such as low birth rate, lower income, and lack of confidence in expectations.
However, the core reason is that residents and businesses are lying flat, preferring to let money lie in the bank than let it circulate.
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The chill in the economy has been particularly strong this year.
September CPI was flat year-on-year, up 0.2% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase did not reach the expected 0.2%; The September PPI fell 2.5% year-on-year and rose 0.4% month-on-month.
Overall, CPI and PPI growth improved month-on-month, but year-on-year growth was lower than expected.
Moreover, there is an 8.2% scissor difference between the 2.1% year-on-year growth rate of M1 at the end of September and the 10.3% year-on-year growth rate of M2.
Compared with the broad currency, that is, M2, the growth rate of M1, which is mostly composed of enterprise demand deposits, is at a low level, which means that enterprises are cautious in their expectations of the economy, and they dare not spend money when they have money, and the money that flows to enterprise operations and expansion of reproduction has become "dead money", has become deposits, and has not entered the market circulation.
In terms of resident deposits, as of the end of 2022, the balance of mainland household deposits was 120 trillion yuan. In the first seven months of this year, the size of new deposits was 11.09 trillion. Taken together, as of the end of July this year, the balance of mainland household deposits reached 131.09 trillion yuan.
On September 1 this year, state-owned banks lowered the interest rates for one-year, two-year, three-year and five-year RMB time deposits to 1.55%, 1.85%, 2.2% and 2.25% respectively.
From September last year to September this year, the deposit rate was cut three times in one year.
Deposit rates have fallen repeatedly, but residents still choose to keep their money in the bank.
The growth rate of CPI and PPI, as well as the scissor difference between M1 and M2, point to the lack of consumer information and motivation, and the vitality of physical operations.
So, businesses and residents don't spend money, how can the economy recover?
three
The central bank keeps lowering deposit rates and loan costs in the hope of freeing up more money and promoting consumer investment, but the effect is not satisfactory.
Everyone tends to use money to save and pay off debts first, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to finance and expand operations is not high, and the desire of residents and enterprises to spend money cannot be stimulated.
It's kind of the same.
If residents do not consume, the demand of the whole society will shrink; Enterprises can not make money, there is no funds to expand reproduction, in order to open source and reduce costs, can only choose to cut salaries and lay offs, which to a certain extent aggravates the economic pressure of residents, residents dare not consume.
A closed loop of non-consumption is thus formed.
Therefore, the government had to make a move, and the government spent money to stimulate the economy.
Sky money fell down.
The government hopes to invest in basic projects such as flood control projects and soil erosion control projects through special government bonds, create employment opportunities, and let funds flow into the pockets of residents in the form of wages, thereby driving consumption and employment, enhancing the enthusiasm of enterprise operations, so that the income of both residents and enterprises has rebounded, enhancing their confidence in the economy, daring to consume, daring to expand reproduction, and re-entering a virtuous circle in the economy.
All the additional treasury bonds issued this time will be arranged to local governments through transfer payments, and it is planned to arrange the use of 500 billion yuan this year and 500 billion yuan to be carried forward next year.
This is equivalent to the central government directly issuing bonds and issuing money to local governments to engage in construction.
shop
The chill of the economy is largely due to the weakness of local governments' land finances due to the downturn in the real estate market, the continuous decline in land transfer revenues, the high debt ratio of local governments, and the corresponding slowdown in investment growth, resulting in certain fluctuations in the economy.
Previously, although countless policies were introduced, the property market still did not improve much, because there was not a large amount of money flowing into the market.
At such a time, 3.7 trillion yuan of new funds, plus 1.5 trillion yuan of special special refinancing debt that has been issued, and 5.2 trillion yuan of sky-high funds, will greatly ease the financial pressure on local governments. Local governments that have eased this breath will also allocate more money for steady economic growth, including, of course, infrastructure investment.
The government's signal to stabilize economic growth was released.
The flood flooded, and the radical rescue began.