Armenia's strategic challenges and complexities
Armenia is once again in the international spotlight. According to overseas media reports, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan recently made tough remarks against Russia, questioning the position of the CSTO peacekeeping forces on certain issues. These include acquiescence to the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijani environmentalists and the refusal to host joint CSTO military exercises. He also implicitly referred to the hope that Russia would withdraw its peacekeeping forces deployed in Armenia. Despite his tough remarks, he also stressed that he was not criticizing Russia. Instead, he said relations between the two countries have never been better. The reason why he proposed to withdraw troops was due to regional security considerations.
Pashinian also explained why he refused to host the joint exercises. He said that some CSTO member states are too closely linked to Azerbaijan to hold military exercises in such circumstances. All these statements are actually related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region is located on the territory of Azerbaijan, but most of its inhabitants are ethnic Armenians. This ethnic distribution does not correspond to the geographical location, so territorial conflicts are inevitable. Both sides claimed sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, and in Soviet times, only a coercive Soviet presence could barely keep the peace.
In the light purple part of the picture, the Nagorno-Karabakh region is marked. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, war broke out between the two sides over Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia won with the support of Russia. They took not only Nagorno-Karabakh, but also some undisputed territories that originally belonged to Azerbaijan.
However, Azerbaijan will certainly not rest on its laurels. In 2020, large-scale clashes broke out again between the two sides. Azerbaijan, with the assistance of Turkey, fought more and more courageously. Armenia, already at a disadvantage, also lost Russia's support. Eventually, under Putin's leadership, Armenia was forced to accept ceasefire conditions that were not favorable to it and lost de facto control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas. They also had to help Azerbaijan build the Zangezur corridor connecting the mainland with the enclave of Nakhichevan. This is undoubtedly a huge loss.
And the Lachin corridor, as mentioned by Pashinyan , is located between Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region. After the defeat of Armenia in 2020, the corridor was occupied by Azerbaijan, while Russian peacekeepers took over the area to ensure smooth traffic between the two places. After all, the main inhabitants of the Lachin region are also ethnic Armenians.
These events led to Pashinyan being criticized at home for losing large swathes of territory, which was undoubtedly a great damage to the country. Protests spread through the streets and people demanded his ouster. In this case, Pashinyan had to resign as prime minister and early elections were held. In the end, he won the election and returned to the position of prime minister.
However, Pashinyan remained dissatisfied with these events. He therefore criticized CSTO member States for not firmly supporting Armenia. Especially as Armenia's closest ally, Russia is not decisive enough in the face of Azerbaijan's provocations. This made him unhappy. But Russian President Vladimir Putin is not indifferent. However, to understand Russia's perspective, we must consider that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not only an issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also involves other regional powers such as Turkey and Iran. Russia cannot blindly favor Armenia.
In addition, Russia is mired in the Ukrainian problem and simply does not have the ability to re-intervene in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moreover, Pashinyan seems to have ignored his own actions. He changed Armenia's long-standing pro-Russian traditions and even failed to put the Russian flag on his way to meetings with Russian representatives. This is not only disrespectful to Russia, but also displeases it. In short, the situation is complex, and resolving the dispute requires compromise and diplomatic efforts on all sides.