In finance, forecasting is always fraught with uncertainty. Recently, discussions about the possibility of an economic crisis in the United States in 2024 have attracted a lot of attention. Various financial experts and analysts have had a lively discussion on this and have different views. Let's explore these different perspectives together.
Expected economic crisis
First, let's look at the expected economic crisis. Nomi Prince, former executive director of Goldman Sachs and commentator on the Federal Reserve and the US banking system, believes that 2024 could see a major economic crisis that will reduce the US economy to third place in the world, behind China and India. He suggested that such a crisis could be caused by an imbalance between the real economy and the Wall Street-dominated economy. In this imbalance, ordinary people suffer financially, while the financial system gets a super boost at the expense of ordinary workers, creating a virus-like situation in the economy, waiting to show symptoms.
Divergent forecasts
However, Fed employees said in July that they were no longer predicting a recession in 2024. This prediction contrasts sharply with the above view. In addition, the gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields suggests a 61% probability of a recession in the next 12 months.
Economic growth has slowed
On the other hand, economists are becoming increasingly pessimistic about economic growth in 2024 as the central bank delays interest rate cuts. They expect U.S. economic growth to slow to 0.6 percent from 1.9 percent.
Recession fears
As markets adjust to higher interest rates, some concerns suggest the U.S. may not be able to avoid a recession, signaling that a tougher road may lie ahead.
Comparison with the Great Depression
Finally, the new data suggest that 2024 could see a collapse not seen since the Great Recession if the White House and Congress don't cut spending.
Overall, while opinions differ on whether there will be an economic crisis in the United States in 2024, most agree that a major economic downturn is likely if certain fiscal and monetary policies are not adjusted. So the question is, how should we look at this problem? Do you think the United States will fall into an economic crisis? Or do you have another opinion? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss!
#美媒: The United States could have its worst crash since the Great Depression in 2024#