Text | Owl on the third floor
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According to CCTV news on October 3, on the same day, the Azerbaijani side attacked an Armenian military vehicle transporting food for forward positions, killing one Armenian soldier and wounding two others.
The Armenian Ministry of Defence also accused the Azerbaijani armed forces of firing at ambulances, in grave violation of international humanitarian law. Moreover, the Office of the President of Azerbaijan issued a statement on October 2 stating that Azerbaijan had started practical work on the reintegration of ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region.
In fact, since September 19, the Azerbaijani army has been attacking the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on a large scale, resulting in serious threats to the lives of Armenians living there.
In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia was devastated, and 120,000 Asians fled in despair. This is a miserable national migration, full of desperate situations and helplessness.
Armenians once had the protection of a powerful country, but chose to betray in a time of crisis, and now they have only one way to go.
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Sovereignty dispute in the Yaanaka region: Cold War legacies continue to grow
Located on the mountainous border of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Nagorno-Karabakh region is small but resource-rich, and its main inhabitants are Armenians.
There were territorial disputes in the region since the Soviet era, but due to the strong control of the Soviet Union, the disputes were suppressed below the surface. In 1991, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the regaining of independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the question of the ownership of the Nagorno-Karabakh region resurfaced.
In 1994, the three-year Nagorno-Karabakh War broke out between Asia and Argentina, and the two sides engaged in fierce exchanges of fire in the border area. According to incomplete statistics, the war resulted in tens of thousands of casualties in both countries.
During the war, Armenia received military support from Russia, mainly based on Russia's view of Armenia as a junior brother in the Caucasus.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has the backing of Turkey, which has long hoped to expand its influence in the region. A ceasefire was eventually reached with Russian mediation, but the sovereignty dispute remained unresolved.
In the following 20 years, Azerbaijan focused on economic construction and greatly increased its national and military strength. Its GDP growth rate is among the highest and is regarded as a rising economic star in the Caucasus.
At the same time, Armenia appeared to be somewhat complacent and slack during this period, and the slow progress in defense construction led to its gradual lag behind Azerbaijan in weapons and equipment.
What complicates the situation is that Armenia gradually moved away from its big brother Russia during this period, and instead wanted to get closer to the United States. At the beginning of 2022, this phenomenon became more pronounced after Armenia came to power with a new government.
In September 2022, against the backdrop of Russia's inability to focus on the periphery of the war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan chose to attack again.
The conflict highlighted the multifaceted game: Armenia wants to break free from Russian control, while Azerbaijan seizes the moment to strike at its rivals, Armenia misjudges the situation, believing that with the presence of US troops, Azerbaijan is afraid to make a move, and the international community has no time to take care of the regional dispute for the time being.
Azerbaijan judged that the Russians would not come to Armenia's aid this time and chose to launch an attack while the Armenian army was exercising with the United States. Unsurprisingly, Russia has given only limited diplomatic support and has not provided military involvement, as it has done in the past.
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The bitter lesson of Armenia
In 2018, Armenia came to power with a new pro-American leader, Pasinyan. This Pasinian quickly changed Armenia's past pro-Russian foreign policy.
Once upon a time, Armenia had very close relations with Russia and received a lot of aid in difficult times. However, Pasinian believed that today's Russia had declined, was no longer the Soviet Union, and could not continue to provide Armenia with strong protection, so he chose to break off the previous friendly exchanges and turn closer to the United States.
In March 2020, Armenia actually participated in NATO's military exercises in Ukraine, which was tantamount to tearing up the friendly cooperation between the two countries in front of Russia.
Russia was outraged, and relations between the two sides fell to a freezing point. At the same time, Azerbaijan, seeing the rupture of Asian-Russian relations, immediately seized the opportunity to improve relations with Russia.
In July, fierce clashes broke out again between Asia and Argentina in the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. This time, Azerbaijan not only received the tacit support of Russia, but also enjoyed a large amount of military equipment provided by Turkey, which joined hands with it against Armenia.
Under the joint blows of the two countries, the isolated Armenian army was quickly defeated, and Armenia suffered a crushing defeat, paying the price of huge losses in lives and territory.
However, the stubborn Pasinian government still firmly believes that pro-American and pro-Western foreign policy is the right foreign policy, and continues to hope for American support. In September 2022, as a sign of support, the 101st Airborne Division of the US ace unit came to Armenia for a week-long joint military exercise.
Armenia sees this as a harbinger of the United States doing its best to protect itself. But unexpectedly, just two days before the end of the 19th military exercise, Azerbaijan suddenly launched a large-scale attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, which was tantamount to a blatant declaration of war in front of the United States.
What was even more surprising to everyone was that in the face of Azerbaijan's open provocations, the United States did not make it difficult to support Armenia, but only stood by and allowed the situation to deteriorate.
With only verbal support from the United States, isolated Armenia was once again quickly defeated and forced to accept the harsh ceasefire conditions offered by Azerbaijan.
This fiasco finally made the Armenian government and people realize the reality that the United States, far away, is not something they can rely on.
A small country that wants to cling to a big country and wavers, doomed to the tragedy of abandonment. Armenia has flattered the United States, but abandoned Russia, which once supported it.
As a result, the so-called support of the United States is nothing more than empty verbal promises. This sad lesson has cost Armenia dearly.
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Lessons from conflict
Armenia is a small country of only 3 million people with a GDP of only $19.5 billion in 2022. Strategically located between the powerful powers Russia and Turkey, it is in a vulnerable position.
The conflict has fully exposed Armenia's misassessment of its position in geopolitics and its improper foreign policy, which has led to the current predicament.
Armenia has always wanted to win over the United States and maintain relations with Russia. But this conflict shows that neither Russia nor the United States has Armenian interests in mind.
Russia's attitude is cold, and the United States is only watching from the sidelines, neither of which has taken sanctions against Azerbaijan. Armenia had high expectations for both countries, but the result was that "the trees were quiet and the wind did not stop".
Armenia misjudged its influence in regional geopolitics. Its fantasy can change the situation by wooing the United States, relying on the firm support of the United States.
But the United States is in a period of strategic contraction and will not cause a direct conflict between Armenia and Turkey. Armenia underestimated the essence of the pursuit of its own interests by the United States.
The situation in Armenia is difficult to reverse, and it is necessary to recognize its own limitations and carefully manage relations with the powers. Blind reliance on external forces is not desirable, and its vulnerability is exposed. Armenia needs to adjust its foreign policy and strive for stable development. This conflict is undoubtedly an expensive lesson for Armenia.
At the beginning of the conflict, the Armenian government and public opinion circles hoped that the United States would come forward to sanction Azerbaijan and give it firm support.
However, the United States has always remained on the sidelines and has not exerted any pressure on Azerbaijan. This disappointed the Armenians very much, criticizing the United States for betraying Armenia.
In fact, the United States does not intend to get involved in a dispute for a small country that has no strategic value and to the detriment of relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Russia, for its part, wants to maintain influence in the region and is reluctant to explicitly support either side. Although Armenia regards Russia as an "old friend," Russia values its own interests more than its needs. The ceasefire proposed by Russia was considered humiliating by Armenia.
The fact that neighboring countries have not given Armenia strong support fully shows that Armenia has seriously overestimated its geopolitical influence. Surrounded by powerful countries, Armenia was already walking on thin ice, but because of the good impression of big countries for themselves, they lost themselves, and they originally thought that they were sought after by tens of thousands of people, but they did not expect that no one sought after them and they were nothing.
The conflict has cost Armenia dearly, with tens of thousands of people displaced. The Armenian opposition has called for the overthrow of the pro-American Pashinyan government.
However, no matter how the government changes, Armenia must recognize its limitations, adjust its foreign policy and carefully manage its relations with the powers.
In this conflict, Armenians saw the true face of the so-called "old friends" and "new big brothers" and realized that they could not rely on either side. Armenia must maintain its strategic independence and pursue its own long-term development. Only in this way can we avoid falling into a passive situation again. This will be an expensive but necessary awakening for Armenia.
04
Looking ahead, it is necessary for Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve their differences through negotiations and avoid further escalation of the conflict. The key is that the international community provides a platform to mediate with external forces and exert appropriate pressure, so as not to allow this legacy of the cold war to continue to ferment, eventually leading to more extensive casualties.
Armenia needs to rethink its diplomatic strategy and re-establish equal and mutually beneficial relations with neighboring powers, which can guarantee the security and interests of the country more than dependent powers.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh involves the interests of many countries, and it is difficult to see a turnaround in the short term. But we still need to maintain confidence that as long as all parties remain rational and goodwill and seek a solution through dialogue, peace will prevail in this dispute.
The key to seizing the moment, averting dangers and avoiding renewed conflict lies in the use of diplomatic wisdom. We hope that all parties concerned will live up to expectations and take a pragmatic approach to promoting the positive side of the situation. Finally, a question is left to the reader: when will the dawn of peace illuminate this region?