In contrast to the wave of layoffs in the late 90s and the wave of unemployment in 2023, the sun is always after the storm.

History is always strikingly similar, but it is not simply repeated. Now experiencing a wave of unemployment in 2023, looking back, I can't help but think of the wave of layoffs in the late 90s. These two periods have similarities in socio-economic background, motivation and solutions, but they are not the same, which deserve our in-depth consideration and discussion.

Looking back at the end of the 90s of last century, the reason for the wave of layoffs can be traced back to the inability of the planned economy to meet the needs of reform and opening up. With the rise of foreign and private enterprises, state-owned enterprises are facing fierce market competition and expanding losses. But it's not the workers' fault, they don't have the power to decide where the business goes. Under the planned economy system, enterprises carry out sales and purchases according to the plan, not according to market demand. When the problem of losses was inevitable, the state implemented a three-year extrication action for state-owned enterprises, resulting in tens of millions of people losing their jobs through downsizing, layoffs, mergers and bankruptcy. The proportion of unemployed people in the total labor force is as high as 15.6%, which puts great pressure on the whole society.

However, after experiencing a severe employment crisis, the state actively responded, vigorously developed the market economy, and encouraged private enterprises to absorb employment. In addition, the country also seized international opportunities, joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in a timely manner, promoted the growth of foreign trade exports, and finally successfully overcame the unemployment crisis. This wave of experience tells us that the government must actively guide and support the development of domestic enterprises, and at the same time, it needs to seize the opportunity to integrate with international standards, enhance competitiveness, and create more opportunities for employment.

Now, in 2023, we are once again facing the challenge of a wave of unemployment. Multiple factors such as changes in the economic environment, rising protectionism, economic downcycles, and the sequelae of epidemic control have combined to lead to a large number of employment problems. It is also a reminder that economic development is cyclical, with both development and peaks, busts and layoffs. They are not isolated phenomena, but resonances of the global economy, which need to be analyzed and considered from a global perspective.

However, in every crisis, the spark of technological innovation always shines with hope. It is the continuous development of science and technology that has pushed human society to overcome the shortcomings of the past and move towards a higher peak. Given the current wave of unemployment, there is reason to believe that the power of technology will be an important factor in driving economic recovery and job growth.

In this digital and intelligent era, more opportunities and possibilities will be born, and we need to seize the opportunities of scientific and technological innovation to provide more training and skills transformation opportunities for the unemployed. Next, I will analyze the similarities and differences between the two periods in depth and explore the possibilities for solving problems.

First, similarities

The wave of layoffs in the late 90s and the wave of unemployment in 2023 both occurred during the period of economic transition. At the end of the 90s, China had just carried out market economy reform, state-owned enterprises faced fierce market competition, and in 2023, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading.

Both periods were influenced by external factors. The wave of layoffs in the late 90s was related to the incompatibility of the planned economic system and the international situation, while the wave of unemployment in 2023 was affected by global factors such as trade frictions, Sino-US competition and geopolitics.

The wave of layoffs in the late 90s and the wave of unemployment in 2023 have led to the loss of jobs by a large number of people, increasing employment pressure. Both periods saw large-scale layoffs and layoffs, and the number of unemployed was huge, which had a serious impact on social stability and people's livelihood.

The wave of layoffs in the late 90s and the wave of unemployment in 2023 have obvious structural unemployment characteristics. At the end of the 90s, with the development of the market economy, many state-owned enterprises and collective-owned enterprises faced the problem of overcapacity and losses, so reforms and layoffs were carried out, resulting in large-scale layoffs. In 2023, structural unemployment is mainly due to factors such as economic restructuring, technological progress and industrial upgrading, which has led to the reduction of demand for certain industries and positions, causing some people to lose job opportunities.

Second, the differences

In the late 90s, the wave of layoffs was mainly concentrated in state-owned enterprises and collectively-owned enterprises, while the wave of unemployment in 2023 involved a wider range of industries, including real estate, education and training, Internet and other fields. The scope of the unemployed is more extensive.

The wave of layoffs in the late 90s was mainly due to the loss of state-owned enterprises and market competition pressure caused by the reform of the planned economy, while the wave of unemployment in 2023 occurred in the context of anti-globalization, trade frictions and geopolitical tensions. In particular, the trade war, technology war and financial war between China and the United States have led to serious operational difficulties for some industries and enterprises. Changes in external factors have led to differences in the causes and solutions of the unemployment wave in the two periods.

Compared with the late 90s, the wave of unemployment in 2023 is more affected by technological progress and industry changes. Today's digitalization, artificial intelligence and automation technologies are changing the needs and forms of many industries and jobs, leading to mass unemployment in some traditional jobs.

The wave of unemployment in 2023 pays more attention to skills transformation and the improvement of employment competitiveness than the wave of layoffs in the late 90s. Due to the wave of economic restructuring and technological innovation, the labor force of many traditional industries needs to transform and upgrade their skills to meet the needs of emerging industries. Skills transformation and upskilling have become even more urgent.

The wave of layoffs in the late 90s occurred in the early stage of China's economic transformation, in the stage of gradual opening of the domestic market and intensified competition. The wave of unemployment in 2023 will occur at a time when China has become the second largest economy and is competing with global partners, and is in a stage of high-quality development and transformation and upgrading. The background of unemployment is closely related to economic development, industrial structure, market demand and other factors, so the reasons and characteristics of the two are different.

The unemployment wave in 2023 is more complex due to anti-globalization and international relations. Global factors such as trade frictions, Sino-US competition and geopolitical instability have caused the wave of unemployment to be more extensive and far-reaching. The dynamics of international relations have variable effects on the economy and employment, affect global supply chains and market demand, and have an important impact on unemployment.

In the late 90s, the wave of layoffs to solve the unemployment problem mainly relied on the reform of state-owned enterprises, mergers and bankruptcies, and the diversion of employees. Addressing the unemployment wave in 2023 requires a more integrated and flexible approach. In addition to supporting key industries and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, it is also necessary to help the unemployed to achieve re-employment through active employment policies, training and skills upgrading programs, and entrepreneurial and innovative support.

In short, looking back at the wave of layoffs in the late 90s, we find that there are many similarities with the wave of unemployment in 2023, but the wave of unemployment in 2023 faces a more complex situation, including the impact of global factors such as trade frictions, Sino-US competition, and geopolitics. These factors have had an important impact on the formation and resolution of unemployment waves, which we continue to analyze in depth.

First, the intensification of trade frictions has had a profound impact on the global economy, further exacerbating the pressure of unemployment waves. The US-China trade dispute has reached unprecedented intensity, leading to massive tariffs and trade-restrictive measures. This has left many export-oriented businesses facing depression and reduced orders, which in turn has led to massive layoffs and employment pressures. As a result, the foreign trade industry has been severely impacted, and many labor-intensive jobs have been reduced or even disappeared.

Second, the intensification of competition between China and the United States has also had an important impact on the wave of unemployment. At present, China and the United States are at the forefront of economic and technological competition. In order to ensure the country's core competitiveness, both sides are increasing investment to enhance technological innovation and industrial transformation and upgrading. However, this has also led to industrial restructuring and changes in skill requirements in some fields, causing the labor force in some traditional industries to lose employment opportunities. At the same time, the demand for high-quality talents and technical capabilities in emerging industries is becoming more and more urgent, exacerbating the employment dilemma of low-skilled labor.

In addition, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has also had an important impact on the wave of unemployment. Geopolitical factors on a global scale, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, political turmoil and international sanctions, can have a direct impact on the economy. These factors lead to a reallocation of resources and markets, which in turn affects the development of various industries and employment opportunities. Geopolitical instability can expose businesses to uncertainty and risk and be reluctant to expand employment, leading to an increase in unemployment.

In view of the above situation, we need to comprehensively deal with the wave of unemployment and find solutions to the problem. First, the government should strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control, stimulate economic growth and innovation vitality, and provide more employment opportunities. Second, the government can support enterprise transformation and upgrading and skills training through fiscal and monetary policies to help the labor force adapt to market demand. Third, the government should also seize international opportunities, strengthen foreign economic cooperation and expand emerging markets, and create more opportunities for employment.

Of course, individuals should also continuously improve their own quality and skills to adapt to changes in economic restructuring and market demand. In the wave of economic and scientific and technological innovation, we should actively participate in learning and training, improve our competitiveness, and create more employment opportunities for ourselves.

To sum up, whether it is the wave of layoffs in the late 90s or the wave of unemployment in 2023, we all need to learn from it. The government must strengthen macro-control, provide employment support and guidance, and at the same time stimulate the vitality of enterprise innovation and inject more vitality into the job market. At the same time, individuals should also continuously improve their own capabilities and adapt to market demand, do a good job in self-development and career planning, and create more opportunities for themselves.

History is always similar, but it is not simply repeated. However, we can better cope with and solve the current unemployment problem by recognizing and summing up past experience. We believe that even in the face of difficulties, we have enough wisdom and strength to overcome challenges and create a better future. Only the joint efforts of science and technology and innovation can lead us to the next peak.

The sun is always after the storm, may everyone have a bright future!