#时事热点头条说#
First of all, it should be clarified that the youth unemployment rate does not affect the statistics of the total unemployment rate.
With that hat, let's expand on the problem.
Why was youth unemployment started five years ago? And why did the Bureau of Statistics announce at such a point in time that it would no longer publish the youth unemployment rate after August? Will it be permanently frozen like the Gini coefficient? The Gini system is frozen at 0.47; the youth unemployment rate is fixed at 21.3%.
In what year did the youth unemployment rate begin?
In 2018.
This year's GDP growth rate was 6.7%, there was no epidemic at that time, and China's real estate was still a year of rising volume and price and full of confidence.
The unemployment rate is only 3.8%, and the youth unemployment rate is 10.8%; this is a sunny background, and the announcement of the youth unemployment rate is, of course, a concern for the tens of millions of college graduates every year.
Youth unemployment rate, mainly refers to the survey unemployment rate of young people between the ages of 16 and 24; If youth unemployment is low, the economy is strong, investment is strong, and jobs are increasing; College students will also be the beneficiaries of the engineer dividend in industrial upgrading; On the contrary, there is no need to look at other data, directly draw the dragon, indicating the economic recession and the lack of innovation drive.
Why is publishing paused?
The main reason is to "redefine".
This reason is not good, the standard defined is, of course, international standards, and it is necessary to "redefine" when the youth unemployment rate continues to hit new highs? How many meanings does this mean? What is the meaning of data if it is not according to international standards, self-set standards? Wouldn't she also become a little girl dressed up by anyone?
The real reason is simple, the data is too bad.
Too bad to publish it? Because this data caused two troubles.
The first trouble is that the data is falsified.
Schools are struggling to "complete" employment rate indicators, which are less realistic; Zhang Dandan, an associate professor of economics at Peking University, said in an article published on Caixin that the study found that the actual youth unemployment rate published may be a serious underestimate, with the actual youth unemployment rate peaking at 46.5% in March. Whether or not this information is reliable, the youth unemployment rate, even if it has full trust in the statistics bureau, is locked at 21.3%, which has become an important evidence of the global decline of China's economy. At the beginning of the year, the global scholars collectively sang about the United States, and the actual comparison, in terms of youth unemployment alone, the plot reversed, we hit a new high of 21.3%, while the youth unemployment rate in the United States in the same period was 7.4%, it is better to stop publishing than to continue to publish.
The second trouble, the observant will immediately falsify the data on the total unemployment rate.
The total unemployment rate is 5.3%, this data does not cross the 7% warning line, but China's annual youth unemployment data is superimposed, the magnitude is very large, if it is really high to 46.5%, it is unlikely to support the total data of 5.3%, which means that from the unemployment rate, China's economy does show signs of recession.
Make an international comparison
The mainland's statistics on youth unemployment are basically seeking consistency with those of the International Labour Organization.
For example, the youth population is divided into three categories: the employed population, the unemployed population, and one category is the non-labor force. Among them, those who are willing to work or have lost the ability to work are non-laborers.
The total number of young people in China in 2022 is more than 96 million, but only about 33 million are actually looking for work, and the rest is non-labor. More than 6 million of the 33 million people are not working, which means that of the more than 96 million young people, only 6 million are unemployed; The unemployment rate does not correspond to 96 million, but to 33 million. It should be said that statistics are mild, and people who are really unemployed are much larger than the results of statistics. If it corresponds to 46.5% of 96 million, what is the concept?
Both of these reasons suggest that it is not appropriate to continue to publish the youth unemployment rate.
Even if it is no longer published, 21.3% of the data is already available, what level is this? The most intuitive is to compare with the international level.
Are there any countries where youth unemployment exceeds 20 per cent? There are also many such as Sri Lanka, Iran and some southern European and African countries, but the current youth unemployment rate on the mainland is still at a relatively high level, even on an international scale. According to the latest statistics, the youth unemployment rate in the United States is about 7.4%, in Japan and South Korea it is around 5%, in the eurozone it is about 14%, and in the OECD youth unemployment rate is about 10%.
International Unemployment Alert Standard: 7%, i.e. an unemployment rate above 7% can have a serious negative impact on the social, economic and political environment.
Will we break through?
Whether or not youth unemployment data is released in August, one thing is for sure, employment pressure is high this year. We are likely to have broken through the warning line, optimistically saying that China's economy is a weak recovery cycle, I believe that the Bureau of Statistics is the clearest about the macro situation, and stopping the publication of youth unemployment is itself a warning, indicating a reverse judgment of the employment situation.
Therefore, everyone must cherish their jobs.
Bread is more important than ism.
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