French Ambassador to Niger Sylvain Itai left Niger by plane early on the morning of the 27th. Macron also said that the withdrawal of 1,500 French troops in Niger will begin within weeks and be completed by the end of the year. Russia uses a military coup to let Macron mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, I have to say that Macron knows that it is a trap, but he must get into it, there are superior people behind Russia! Today we see what Russia's super strategy is!
First, everything is a strategy of a great power
In February 2022, when Putin decided to take military action against Ukraine, he did not foresee that the conflict would turn into a long and difficult war of attrition. In his opinion, as the world's second largest military power, Russia's strike on Ukraine will be an easy victory, and even if peace is finally achieved, it will not bring too much loss to Russia.
Putin had hoped to quickly launch a blitzkrieg against Ukraine under the guise of military exercises, winning by surprise. However, the reality turned out to be very different from what he expected. The resistance of the Ukrainian army is far stronger than Putin expected. Despite Russia's strong military strength, the Ukrainian army is not defenseless, but has always insisted on resisting the war, putting Russia in a difficult predicament.
On the part of the United States, as if he had long foreseen the coming of war, Biden made it clear at the table that the United States has developed major plans to deal with the situation in Ukraine. Subsequently, the US military began to methodically guide and assist the Ukrainian army, while quickly organizing NATO countries to provide various forms of support to Ukraine.
However, at this time, Putin did not pay attention to the protracted rhythm of the war. In his opinion, he holds the trump card in his hands, and Russia's military strength is enough to meet any challenge to him. It is believed that Russia will finally win this war, and Ukraine's resistance is only temporary. For Putin, this conflict is a short-lived battle that must be won, not a protracted war of attrition.
Second, the United States has calculated Putin's hole card
In Russia's planning, they may not have foreseen that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would encounter so many difficulties and dangers. They may have been ill-prepared at the beginning and were almost succeeded by the Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, President Putin is not worried, because during the cold winter months, the whole of Europe depends on natural gas supplied by Russia, especially the completion of the Nord Stream pipeline, which has benefited many European countries.
Although with the exception of France, which relies on nuclear power for power generation, other European countries have massively phased out coal and switched to natural gas. The completion of the Nord Stream pipeline has not only become an important channel for Russia to transport natural gas to Europe, but also provided Russia with an important means to put pressure on Europe. Russia can affect the economies and livelihoods of European countries by controlling the supply of natural gas.
Back in 2014, when the Crimean War broke out, the United States manipulated behind the scenes and retired German Chancellor Angela Merkel intervened. Small European countries do not want Russia to bully the small, nor do they want Ukraine to win the final victory. With Merkel's mediation, Russia and Ukraine quickly signed a ceasefire agreement in 2014, ending the Crimean War.
However, the completion of the Nord Stream pipeline did not give Russia a long-term advantage. The United States has long seen this and has taken a series of measures to weaken Russia's influence in Europe. For example, the United States has reduced the dependence of European countries on Russian gas by supplying large amounts of shale gas to European countries. In addition, the United States has improved the security of European countries by strengthening military cooperation with them. These measures have led to a gradual weakening of Russia's influence in Europe and a gradual increase in the influence of the United States in Europe.
Third, the United States has cut off the idea of Europe
The United States is very worried that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will become difficult to end. In order to block cooperation projects between the EU and Russia, the United States tried to seize Russia's place in the dollar trading system and demanded that European countries stop trading with Russia. However, since it is spring and summer, the demand for gas is not large, so US support for EU sanctions against Russia is volatile. After all, Europe still needs Russian energy until the onset of a harsh winter. So, the US strategy is to sabotage the Nord Stream pipeline in order to prevent European countries from uniting and force Ukraine to abandon NATO.
However, when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict reached an impasse, Russia reminded EU countries that winter will bring severe cold and they will need more Russian gas. Putin had expected European leaders to ask him to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before winter, but he did not expect a possible change in Europe's position.
By November 2021, Germany's Merkel had retired and no longer led the government. At the same time, France relies on nuclear power to generate electricity and has little demand for Russian energy. Britain needs friendly relations with the US for energy support, preferring to wait in the bitter cold rather than offend the US. However, during the hot summer of August 2022, the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up, which made European countries hesitant to act against Russia. After the explosion, Russian President Vladimir Putin and European leaders were embarrassed. Faced with this situation, EU countries tried to remain flexible, but the facts broke their plans.
The EU quickly changed its position, completely sided with the United States, expressed its readiness to fight together with Ukraine, endure the cold even in winter, and firmly supported Ukraine. Despite Russia's attempts to keep it, the EU has ignored it. Now the EU seems to have become a vassal of the United States and no longer has a visionary leader.
Russia is deeply aware that the EU has become a puppet of the United States, which no longer means anything to them, and they must accept this reality.
Fourth, the way the war ended
In fact, there are three possible outcomes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The first is that Russia wins the war, the second is that Ukraine wins, and the third is resolved through peaceful negotiations. But at present, it is very difficult to end the conflict through war. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the ability to completely eliminate the other in the short term. Therefore, the only option is peaceful negotiations to resolve the conflict.
However, despite the fact that peace talks are the only solution, neither Zelensky nor Putin will accept unconditional peace talks. Unconditional peace talks for Zelensky mean surrender, he cannot answer to the United States and the West. For Putin, the Russian government cannot account to the people at home. Either side accepts unconditional peace talks that means they will sacrifice their political lives, even their lives. However, if the war continues, both Russia and Ukraine will suffer senseless casualties and losses. The whole world is watching the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and both sides have realized that continuing the war is not beneficial to either side.
So a mediator like Merkel, a mediator acceptable to both sides, is needed to move forward with reconciliation. The mediator needs to show enough neutrality to communicate and compromise with both sides to achieve a ceasefire. Such a solution could give both sides breathing time and create opportunities for further peace talks. A ceasefire helps to reduce casualties and destruction and lays the foundation for the peace process.
Fifth, only Macron is the right person
The Russia-Ukraine dispute is actually a matter of territorial disputes, and does not involve deep political and ideological contradictions. It can be seen as an inevitable dispute when the family divides the family property. If there are people in Europe who can act as mediators, why let Merkel, the "iron lady" who has been retired for almost two years, stand up again? However, we must not forget that people are forgotten once they leave, and even the highly respected Merkel cannot escape this reality. She has faded from the public eye, and her influence is not as strong as it once was.
In this case, Russia may have to seek the help of French President Emmanuel Macron. Among NATO countries, France is the only one without a U.S. troop presence, and it also occupies an important place among the five permanent members of the United Nations. If Europe is compared to a village, Macron is undoubtedly a village chief-level role. His intervention will certainly attract enough attention from both sides.
However, France accounts for 70% of nuclear energy production, making it the world's largest nuclear energy producer. For such a powerful "landlord" on his doorstep, Macron may not have much incentive to mediate. If France can be self-sufficient, why should it be involved in such chaos as the Russian-Ukrainian dispute? Sitting and watching bullfights is not necessarily a pleasure.
Faced with this situation, Macron faces a grim situation. He had to reassess the situation and think about how to respond. Niger's military junta is apparently using nuclear fuel as a bargaining chip to force France to its knees. Because Niger's minerals are vital to France. Macron must make quick decisions to find solutions to avoid further escalation and ensure a stable energy supply in France. This is a crucial contest and Macron is under enormous pressure on time to find the right response.
Sixth, Russia's top strategizing
Since you are not willing to take the initiative to help mediate, I cannot lose face and ask for your help. So I have to try to exert pressure on you to participate voluntarily in mediation. Energy and electricity are now essential for modern industry and life. Maybe you don't need to rely on Russian gas, but your nuclear power plant undoubtedly needs nuclear fuel as an energy source. Interestingly, France mainly imports nuclear fuel from Niger, and Niger's military has close ties with Wagner military-private contractors in Russia, as Wagner has major customers in the African region.
So, on July 26, 2023, the Nigerien military overthrew the pro-French presidential government and established a military government. At first, Macron did not pay much attention to this, after all, coups in African countries are not uncommon, and he expects the junta to quickly seek cooperation with France. However, things turned out completely beyond Macron's expectations. On August 3, the Nigerien military junta announced the annulment of all military cooperation agreements with France and demanded that all French troops be withdrawn by September 3. The junta also ordered the expulsion of the French ambassador to Niger and stripped the French ambassador of diplomatic immunity. At the same time, mass protests erupted in the Niger capital. These actions clearly show that Macron does not have any buffer and time to respond.
Faced with the attitude of the Niger side, Macron faces an extremely serious situation. He had to reassess the situation and think about how to respond. Niger's military junta apparently used nuclear fuel as a bargaining chip to force France to submit, after all, Niger's mineral resources are very important to France. Macron needs to make quick decisions to find solutions to secure France's energy supplies and prevent further escalation. At the moment, he is facing an urgent struggle to respond correctly under the pressure of tight time.
Seven, how hard is it to be in Pony now
Today, Macron is really experiencing unprecedented problems and difficulties. If France goes to war with Niger, it will be tantamount to challenging Russian mercenaries, which is really a lot of pressure for France. Although France has an experienced army, it is not easy to win quickly against such an opponent, and it is likely that it will be difficult to get out of the quagmire battle. While a withdrawal would be a wise option to reduce losses, it would certainly damage France's reputation as a permanent member of the United Nations. Allowing a former colony to force France to withdraw its troops would certainly be a great shame for France. However, this is only one of the many problems Macron faces.
There are many nuclear power plants in France, and the demand for nuclear fuel is very large. The loss of Niger's nuclear mine will pose an unprecedented challenge to France's electricity supply. According to reports, only half of France's 58 nuclear power plants are in normal operation as of 2022. If the remaining nuclear power plants are affected by the shortage of nuclear fuel, it will inevitably lead to an increase in the proportion of conventional natural gas power generation. However, France is not limited to buying Russian or American gas, there are other options.
The concern is that the price of gas in the United States turned out to be ten times higher than the price of Russian gas. Electricity prices in Europe have risen today, and buying expensive American gas would have a huge impact on industrial production and daily life in France. France faces a difficult choice: whether to afford expensive U.S. gas prices or face tight power supplies and resource shortages. This is bound to have a significant impact on French industry and everyday life.
VIII. Everything is developing according to Russian plans
The United States certainly wants France to buy their gas so that the United States can control France's energy security. The United States claims that, in addition to a slightly higher price, their gas is otherwise comparable to that of Russia. But in fact, behind it lies the far-reaching strategic layout of the United States for Europe.
If France gradually buys American gas, energy prices will rise significantly. This is very beneficial for the United States, while also strengthening their position in the French energy market. In order to attract French companies to invest in the United States, the United States has also introduced the well-known "American Business Subsidy Act", which aims to take advantage of the confrontation of European and American interests in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to further obtain European wealth.
One might ask, will the United States lower gas prices to attract more European customers? But reality seems to negate that idea. By raising gas prices, the United States is cleverly depriving Europe of its wealth, prompting European companies to pull out and turn to American investment. Faced with this reality, France may consider buying Russian gas, but there may be a difference in price.
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Scholz has proposed a $7 billion investment in cooperation with China to repair the bombed Nord Stream pipeline, giving new hope for Europe's energy security. French President Emmanuel Macron needs to intervene and mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible to find a proper solution for both sides. Whatever choice France makes, Macron will eventually have to confront Russia. In the case of putting interests first, the political and democratic ideas advocated by Western countries may seem hypocritical and useless!