After Kazakhstan made these two decisions, Moscow laughed and pinched its lifeline

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At the end of last year, Kazakhstan fell into a large-scale armed rebellion, an incident believed to have been provoked by external forces. The Tokayev regime was in jeopardy, but fortunately, the Russian-led CSTO intervened in an emergency, sending troops to support Kazakhstan and helping to quell the unrest, ultimately ensuring the stability of the Tokayev regime.

However, at a sensitive time when Russia is under full Western repression due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Tokayev government's actions come as a surprise. Not so long ago, the Kazakh government urgently issued a ban on the delivery of goods subject to Western sanctions to Russia and Belarus. According to this policy, goods lacking electronic invoices will be refused entry to the Russian border. Although the Kazakh government is not openly opposed to Russia, in fact, they are implementing the policy of EU sanctions against Russia. The move strained relations between Kazakhstan and Russia.

The differences between Kazakhstan and Russia became apparent after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Before that, Tokayev, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, openly refused to recognize the international status of two "republics" in the Donbas region. This position differs from the "vague" approach of most countries, which, while claiming to support the principles of the UN Charter, generally avoid talking about this sensitive topic when formally interacting with Russia.

As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO, Kazakhstan has always been seen as an ally of Russia. Therefore, the actions of the Tokayev government attracted attention from the outside world, which many saw as a sign of naïve ignorance of international morality.

At present, the Kazakh government has announced its decision to increase the export of crude oil to Europe, and on the other hand, it has issued an emergency ban on goods sanctioned by the European Union from passing through the country. Is the timing of these two decisions almost coincidental? Maybe not. At a time when the Tokayev government leaned towards the West, Russia adopted a subtle response.

Not only that, but Russia has taken a measure that recalls the previous closure of European gas supply pipelines. Russia claimed to have suspended oil pipeline activities in Kazakhstan for 30 days due to technical problems. This approach seems to be a consistent pattern in Russia, using technical glitches or repairs as an excuse but causing trouble for Europe. Now, Russia's similar steps to shut down Kazakhstan's oil pipelines seem to hint at more drama.

However, just as Kazakhstan decided to implement EU sanctions against Russia and restrict the transit of Russian and Belarusian cargoes, serious explosions occurred in the largest oil field in the country. Although the cause of the explosion is unknown, this event will undoubtedly seriously affect the process of supplying Kazakhstan with oil to Europe.

As a landlocked country, it seems unwise for Kazakhstan to have such tense relations with its neighbor Russia, especially when Russia has reached out to help during the crisis of the Kazakh regime. In politics, however, things are often not as simple as they seem. There may be more factors behind the unusual behavior of the Tokayev government, and further information is needed to solve the mystery. Perhaps, let the bullets fly a little longer.

Summary: The Kazakh government is supported by Russia in the rebellion provoked by external forces, but it has introduced an unfavorable policy in the implementation of EU sanctions against Russia, which has caused tensions. Russia took measures to close the Kazakh oil export pipeline, a move that may be in response to a change in attitude of the Tokayev government. At the same time, an explosion in Kazakhstan's largest oil field further complicates the situation. Kazakhstan and Russia

The relationship between Ross became even more confusing. Although Russia's rhetoric still emphasizes that Kazakhstan is a friendly country, the actual actions seem to suggest a different situation.

The series of events comes amid widespread international speculation about Kazakhstan's policy shift. On the one hand, Kazakhstan's announcement of an increase in oil supplies to Europe is seen as a sign of tilting towards the West. On the other hand, the introduction of a ban restricts the transportation of goods, seemingly in the implementation of Western sanctions. This contradictory manifestation has aroused the attention of the international community, and there is speculation about the real intentions of the Kazakh government.

However, this is not the only case. Russia's move to shut down Kazakhstan's oil export pipeline raises deeper questions. The decision to make is questionable whether it is purely technical, or whether it is influenced by political factors. When Russia took a similar move to close the European supply pipeline before, it caused widespread concern and controversy in the international community. Now, the same situation is happening again, making people wonder whether this is a move by Russia in the geopolitical game.

The largest oil field explosion in Kazakhstan has added more uncertainty to the overall situation. Although the cause of the explosion is not yet known, the event will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Kazakhstan's oil supply and domestic stability. This has also heightened concerns about the Kazakh government's capabilities and domestic security.

In general, the actions of the Kazakh government and the reaction of the international community constitute a complex puzzle. In the geopolitical game, all parties are pursuing their own interests, but this can also lead to instability and unpredictability of the situation. It is hoped that more information will reveal the truth of the incident in the future, and that all parties can resolve their differences through dialogue and cooperation to maintain regional peace and stability.

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