Pacific typhoon line, another super typhoon coming? Official forecast: 10 days or two days
Although many netizens feel that typhoons have been frequent since September, especially typhoons have become very common in the mainland. But in fact, the counterintuitive trivia goes like this: there was only one typhoon in September this year, Typhoon No. 1. 13 Mandarin ducks. Although typhoons "Sura", "Anemone" and "Hongyan" are all active in September, they are all active in August. A typhoon is born! In previous years, September usually produced 4 to 5 typhoons. In this way, the number of typhoons since September this year is lower than in previous years.
1. The Pacific hurricane line is in chaos
The Pacific Ocean is the world's largest ocean and a major source of hurricanes. Dozens of typhoons occur in the Pacific each year, some of which have severe impact on mainland coastal areas, and although hurricane activity in the Pacific has been generally low this year, many hurricanes have reached super-strong typhoon levels. Thereinto; The paths of some typhoons are also very complicated. Some land directly on the mainland, some pass off the coast of the mainland, and some repeatedly stay in the same area, which is incomprehensible.
Although many typhoon embryos formed in the Pacific Ocean in mid-September, in fact, the Pacific monsoon activity weakened and the amplitude convergence zone was insufficient. Therefore, although multiple typhoon embryos appeared at the same time, from the beginning of September to the present, multiple typhoon embryos have appeared. The embryos of the typhoon have died one by one. At present, there is still a developing hurricane embryo in the Pacific Ocean, and the development potential is not large in the short term.
However, according to the latest forecast of supercomputers, multiple new typhoons may form in the western Pacific in the next 10 days. For example, if you look at a ensemble forecast, the typhoon forecast line appears as a solid line in the South China Sea and the ocean east of the Philippines. A large number of forecast lines are tangled together like a mess. On closer inspection, it appears to be divided primarily into the South China Sea, the waters off the eastern coast of the Philippines, and the waters off Guam. Three parts, meaning at least three low-voltage systems.
2. Will there still be super typhoons?
So, will there be another typhoon in the Pacific in the next ten days? If so, what impact will it have on the mainland? The supercomputer said the reason for the change is that westerly winds at low latitudes will strengthen and spread eastward, which will rapidly increase water vapor in the Pacific Ocean and form a convergence zone in the southern subtropical plateau. Within the belt, multiple low-pressure systems will quickly absorb water vapor and develop, which is a significant opportunity for future hurricane reactivation.
Based on current meteorological data and numerical models, several new low-pressure systems are likely to occur in the Pacific Ocean in the next ten days. For example, the Central Meteorological Observatory predicts 1 to 2 typhoons in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific over the next 10 days. Supercomputer predictions suggest that one may have formed near the Mariana Islands in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and the other may have formed in the continental Southern Ocean. However, it remains to be seen whether these two low-pressure systems have the potential to develop into hurricanes.
At present, there is a strong subtropical high in the northwest Pacific Ocean, which has an important impact on the path and intensity of hurricanes. If the subtropical high is strong and moves westward, the new storm will move west or west, closer to the continental coast; If the subtropical high is weak and easterly, the returning storm will move north or northeast, away from the continental coast. Coastal areas of China. In addition, the subtropical high will also provide the hurricane with enough easterly wind amplitude to protect the cold air from north to south and make it stronger.
For example, it is predicted that on September 29, the Mid-Autumn Festival, there will be two low-pressure systems below 1,000 hPa in the eastern waters of the mainland, one in the central and northern parts. The South China Sea and other seas are located south of the East China Sea. Among them, the system in the north-central region of the South China Sea will remain relatively strong. This means that typhoon activity in the Western Pacific will be more active and complex during the Mid-Autumn Festival. Although the exact path and intensity of the newly formed typhoon cannot be determined at this time, due to the accumulation of large amounts of heat and water vapor in the Pacific Ocean, it cannot be ruled out that the new typhoon will develop into a stronger hurricane. Therefore, it is recommended that the general public pay attention to the latest forecast and warning information of the meteorological department, take preventive measures in time, and reduce disaster losses!
For example, on September 30, the US supercomputer forecast showed that a strong typhoon with a pressure of about 940 hectopascals would approach the southern part of the mainland. This pressure will be equivalent to the level of a super typhoon. Of course, a certain intensity and constant observation of the path are required. To sum up, in the next 10 days, several new typhoon swarms may form in the Pacific Ocean, which will undeniably gain greater power, and this typhoon may also affect the coastal areas of the mainland. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to developments and be prepared for. Meantime; Also take care to avoid misunderstandings of rumors and hype and refer to the information published by the competent authorities. #Current affairs hot headlines say#
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