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In today's semiconductor industry stage, TSMC, Samsung and SMIC all play an important role. They are racing to catch up with state-of-the-art process technologies and push the boundaries of chip manufacturing. However, chip manufacturing is not all smooth sailing, it involves complex technology chains and the impact of globalization. This article will delve into these factors, as well as the outlook for China's chip industry.
The manufacturing process of chips involves three major links: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, each of which requires extensive application of various software and hardware technologies. For example, EDA industrial software, architecture technologies, and IP blocks are required during the design phase, while the manufacturing process relies on equipment such as lithography machines, etching machines, ion implanters, and thin film deposition. As for the packaging and testing link, it needs the support of material technology, each of which has its own huge industrial chain. These links form an important part of the semiconductor industry chain, and there are countless of them.
However, the semiconductor industry is highly globalized, and countries play an important role in it. Nevertheless, the actions of some countries have interfered with the market order and brought a lot of uncertainty to the global semiconductor industry. From EDA software to EUV lithography machines to chip raw materials, almost every field is limited by international rules. This raises the question of whether China's chip capacity will be limited to 90nm if faced with a total supply cut.
This issue requires further clarification of the concepts of domestic and purely domestic. Pure domestic means that almost every manufacturing link adopts independently developed technology, while domestic refers to purchasing foreign semiconductor equipment on the basis of the global industrial chain, and then carrying out independent technology processing in China. If only pure domestic production is considered, the 90nm process is achievable, but SMIC has achieved mass production of 14nm chips. This fact has changed the situation, even in the face of a total supply cut, China still has the ability to produce chips based on its own technology and purchased equipment.
Simply put, once domestic manufacturers buy DUV lithography machines that can produce 14nm chips, they can continue to produce without worrying about the intervention of other countries. It is a basic business principle that the equipment sold does not restrict the customer's use. The U.S. action also shows that they are primarily focused on unsold equipment, not sold equipment. This means that domestic chipmakers only need to ensure a sufficient supply of equipment to be able to continue to produce chips in the required process.
SMIC and ASML have established a long-term purchase agreement, which provides a stable foundation for cooperation between the two parties. Although the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have reached an agreement, this will not affect 2023 revenue. ASML plans to increase sales this year, especially in the Chinese market, which is expected to reach 2.2 billion euros. This means that the number of lithography machines delivered by ASML to China this year is about 100, which is enough to meet future demand.
Why did ASML inform the United States, Japan and the Netherlands of the agreement? This may be to encourage customers to place orders as soon as possible to ensure the supply of lithography machines. Nevertheless, we must not forget that these devices are technologies from abroad. While maintaining cooperation, China should also increase its own research and development efforts to secure its own future.
In conclusion, China's chip industry is developing rapidly, and despite facing some globalization challenges, China has enough capacity to deal with these challenges. The combination of domestic technology and the procurement of equipment provides China with the ability to manufacture chips independently. However, in order to ensure long-term development, China also needs to continuously strengthen its own research and development to cope with the changing international situation. In this field full of opportunities and challenges, China's chip industry has broad prospects.
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