12 films National Day file fight, "Predecessor 4" is far ahead, can the fifth generation of directors do it?

This year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day collided again.

Although 3+7=8, for movies, this is the third largest schedule of the year, and there will be a white-hot fight for me.

Zhang Yimou's "Solid as a Rock" that has been absent for many years, Chen Kaige's "Volunteer Army: Heroic Attack", and "Predecessor 4", which is second only to "Tang Detective 3" in terms of numbers, are menacing.

There are also cartoons such as "Operation Moscow", "It Doesn't seem to be so hot", and "I Am Nezha 2" all want to get a piece of the pie, so who will win the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day box office champions?

The first is Han Geng and Zheng Kai's "Predecessor 4"

"Predecessor 4" still continues the routine of "Predecessor 3", focusing on male and female contradictions in publicity, and even the theme is why young men and women who are currently more popular are not married.

Although according to the trailer, the overall story is relatively old-fashioned, it does not prevent "Predecessor 4" from doing well in the sinking market, and firmly grasps the viewing needs of young people in small towns, and the movie is not only a movie, but also a sense of social and ritual.

Since 2019, the National Day file has been dominated by the main theme, and there are fewer opportunities for other types of films to emerge, and now "Predecessor 4" has sprung up, and may show a dark horse trend.

After all, the record for the number of people who want to watch "Predecessor 4" is the second largest in the history of domestic films, more than the sum of the other 11 films in the same schedule, and this number cannot be underestimated under the premise of no obvious traffic.

In a certain tone, the popularity of the topic of "Predecessor 4" is also far ahead.

The male and female audience ratio of "Predecessor 4" is not particularly outrageous, 42.8% of men and 57.2% of women, a difference of 14 points, which is not very large, and the age of the audience is in line with the mainstream viewing group.

As long as "The Predecessor 4" is not too bad, its relaxed, pleasant pace and brainless and topical tone will definitely attract many audiences, especially young couples who drag on two.

Coupled with a reasonable arrangement, it is very likely to copy the miracle of "Predecessor 3" of 1.9 billion, even if it is not so much, it should not be a big problem to exceed 1 billion, after all, the realism of "Predecessor 4" is different from "Desperate" and "Disappearing Her".

the second is "Rock Solid" directed by Zhang Yimou

Zhang Yimou's "Rock Solid" may be his most anticipated movie at present, and there is also a chance to wash away some of the negative effects of "Manjiang Red".

This is Zhang Yimou's first time directing a crime film, and it is also his longest delayed film in recent years, which was completed in 2019 and only reappeared four years later.

Compared with the rough cut version that Zhang Yimou makes people watch whenever he meets people, the release version that has been trimmed many times is quite different from the previous version.

The script of "Rock Solid" was originally given to To Qifeng, the theme was to fight black, and Du Qifeng's research was done, and finally failed to travel due to contract problems.

Then the light found Jiang Wen again, but Jiang Wen had to finish filming "Evil Does Not Suppress Righteousness" to take over, and the light couldn't wait to let Zhang Yimou "take over", and the fight against black became a sweeping black, but I didn't expect that this was a "No Man's Land".

It's just that "Rock Solid" has more sensitive points, which is easy to cause extreme public opinion.

Previously, because of "Man Jiang Hong", Zhang Yimou offended many people, and after the official release of "Solid as a Rock", every detail will definitely be enlarged, and blood and rain will come at any time.

On the day of the official finalization of "Rock Solid", the sentence on the poster "There is money outside the money, and there are officials on the official" triggered countless associations, causing the film party to urgently remove the poster to avoid ambiguity.

The setting of "Rock Solid" is related to Chongqing, and the story is a sensitive event.

But where public opinion is not well controlled, it is not only a box office problem, but even the movie may be implicated, so be cautious about the box office of "Rock Solid".

This is a movie with high upper and lower limits, if there is one place where publicity and public relations are not in place, one thought of heaven and one thought of hell, Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige, the showdown of the fifth generation may become one-sided.

The third is Chen Kaige's "Volunteer Army: Heroic Attack"

It may be that directing the "Changjin Lake" series gave Chen Kaige a taste of the sweetness of publicity convenience, public opinion control, endorsement, and box office sales.

This time it is also the theme of resisting US aggression and aiding Korea, and it is another magnificent trilogy, but it has become Chen Kaige's unique performance from three directors.

Chen Kaige is lucky, and the three actors in the film are all popular this year.

Zhu Yilong became the male protagonist of the 3 billion box office with "Disappearing Her", Wei Daxun became popular for the role of Meng Yanchen in "My Human Fireworks", and Zhang Songwen had an unprecedented popularity of "Crazy" at the beginning of the year.

There are these three people, as well as the controversy that comes with the main theme, and there are 5 main productions and 27 joint productions, almost domestic film and television enterprise team building, such escort, film arrangement, traffic is not a problem.

The only thing to worry about is the previous ugly poster incident and Chen Kaige's narrative perspective, as well as the national emotions that have been consumed too much, and how much interest everyone has left in the main theme.

But fortunately, Chen Kaige did not start the screenwriting work of "Volunteers: Heroes Attack", which allowed the fifth generation, who had never been good at scripts, to let go of their hands and feet to do their own professional things, which could give the quality of the film a bottom.

The fourth is "It Doesn't Seem to Be So Hot" starring Happy Twist actors

Happy Twist and Happy Twist actors wasted the reputation they accumulated through "Charlotte Troubles" a little bit, starring in bad movies again and again, making them synonymous with bad movies.

Although "It Doesn't Seem to Be So Hot" did not involve Happy Twist, actors such as Wei Xiang and Allen, as well as unique remake features are all elements of Happy Twist, and they represent Happy Twist.

The audience will not care whether you are happy twist investment, as long as you have the shadow of happy twist, after so many years of poison, the first feeling must be a bad movie, even the only comedy in the National Day file can not change this impression.

The fifth is "Operation Moscow" directed by Qiu Litao

Qiu Litao is now like a generalist of Hong Kong films, only Hong Kong films, there must be his shadow.

But although Qiu Litao filmed quickly, the quality fluctuated and the genre was mostly concentrated in police and bandit films, but for the audience, this has long been aesthetic fatigue.

The publicity of "Operation Moscow" also focuses on Andy Lau, in fact, he is only a friendly cameo, the real starring is Zhang Hanyu and Huang Xuan, and the "fraudulent" publicity may have an impact on the box office.

The sixth is "I Am Nezha 2: The Return of the Hero"

"I Am Nezha 2" is a real sheep's head selling dog meat, not that the movie is not worthy of the name, but the film side has been rubbing "Nezha: The Devil Child Descends", making people think that this is a sequel to the film.

In the face of the audience's misunderstanding, the film side has never responded positively, that is, it wants to use this to circle a wave of money, this kind of film behavior is uncomfortable, but it is undeniable that it can indeed make money, so it flocks.

In addition to these six movies, most of the rest of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day files are cartoons.

There won't be many films, and the popularity is not much, just to get a piece of the pie, it is unlikely to become a dark horse, and the box office champion will have to be born from these six films, wait and see.