Rhino Entertainment Original
Text| Xiaofu Editor| Park Fang
This year's fixed tide came a little earlier than in previous years.
After the fierce competition for the Spring Festival, the market began to gradually return to calm. As we all know, every year after the Spring Festival to before May 1st is the traditional off-season of the film market, because this year's Spring Festival is earlier, this off-season time is particularly long.
Although the film market has ushered in a real sense of liberalization and gradually returned to the relatively normal operation mode before the epidemic, in the face of the off-season of nearly three months, there is a certain pressure to finally return.
The general high quality of this year's Spring Festival films has brought them a stronger box office long-tail effect, which can slow down the cooling rate of the broader market to a certain extent. On the other hand, the recent finalization of a number of new films has also injected new vitality into the broader market.
Before "Black Panther 2" Ant-Man and Wasp: Quantum Frenzy (hereinafter referred to as: "Ant-Man 3") "Thunder Shazam! Wrath of the Gods (hereinafter referred to as: "Shazam 2") and a number of blockbusters such as "Shazam 2") are sitting in the town, followed by a number of domestic films and small-scale batch films, compared with the depression scene in the same period last year, this year's post-holiday off-season, seems to have more protection.
A large number of imported films fill the off-season
Counting the two batch films "Journey to the Bell Bud" and "Made in India" that have been released in the mainland but have not yet been officially announced, as well as "When the Wind Rises Again" and "Black Panther 2" that have been released a few days ago, the key films in the off-season after the Spring Festival this year have reached 17. From superhero blockbusters, high-reputation Hong Kong films, potential domestic new films to popular animated films, a variety of genres are available.
The most noteworthy thing is that among these 17 new films, the number of imported films has reached more than half, which is completely unimaginable in the previous two years. In particular, the release of two Marvel superhero movies, "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3", not only announces the return of Marvel blockbusters to the mainland market, but also marks a comprehensive recovery after experiencing the downturn of imported films in the previous two years.
In the current three scheduled billing blockbusters, considering that Marvel's first return to the mainland big screen "Black Panther 2" has leaked out of streaming media resources, it will definitely have a certain impact on the box office. The next "Ant-Man 3", which will be released simultaneously with North America on February 17, will be a new work in the true sense, and the film is the first work of the fifth phase of Marvel, which will surely gain more attention.
There is also "Shazam 2", which will be released in mid-March, although the box office performance of the previous work in the mainland is mediocre, but considering the IP effect, it can still bring a certain boost to the market.
In addition, there are several imported films, including "Journey to Bell Buds" and "Detective Conan: The Undead of Baker Street" and other masterpieces that have received double popularity in overseas markets. Although the overall volume of the batch film is limited, the victory is enough to play in quality.
In terms of domestic films, all the films currently scheduled are non-head volume projects, which is also more in line with the market positioning of the off-season of the film market.
Now the leading "When the Wind Rises Again" has been released at the Lantern Festival, but it has been completely overshadowed by the old films of the Spring Festival. In our opinion, this is an embarrassing situation that is common in the off-holiday season. Once the new film has insufficient potential energy and cannot shake the old films of the Spring Festival, it can only face a cruel ending, and the only new films that can end this situation are more market-attractive.
Looking at the domestic projects currently scheduled for the off-season, there are three new films with relatively large potential.
The first is "Sadness That Can't Shed Tears", which will be released on Valentine's Day.
The film is the only project with a certain volume in this year's Valentine's Day file. The film starring He Lantuo and Cai Fanxi, Wang Yaoqing , Xu Guanghan special starring, Zuo Xiaoqing, Ke Shuqin friendship starring, belongs to a typical Valentine's Day romance film, or can get a good bonus on the day of the schedule. But whether you can get rid of the "day trip" curse depends on the quality of the film itself.
This is followed by "Chinese Table Tennis: Jedi Strikes Back", which will be released on February 17.
Due to force majeure, the film was changed from the Spring Festival file to the same schedule of "Ant-Man 3". With six fewer opponents, but one more strong enemy, the pressure of "Chinese Table Tennis" has not decreased much from the market level. However, considering that the film has a high-quality early word-of-mouth reputation and covers a wide range of groups in the genre, if it can continue to ferment word-of-mouth to hit the target audience, there will still be considerable box office prospects.
Finally, "Dragon Horse Spirit" co-starring Jackie Chan, Liu Haocun and Guo Qilin.
The film was first scheduled for New Year's Eve in 2022, and then rescheduled for April 7 this year, selected to be released on the birthday of starring Jackie Chan. The film includes comedy and action two major market just needed genre elements, and is led by veteran Jackie Chan, although the release day can not get additional schedule bonuses, but the relaxed market environment will still be beneficial to the film.
In addition, there are two new films that may not have a high box office ceiling, which are also worth our continued attention.
One is "Poisonous Tongue Lawyer", which has repeatedly broken box office records in Hong Kong, although it is difficult to get the same influence in the mainland market, but at least in South China, it is still expected to continue the word-of-mouth advantage and walk out of the small and long-term line; There is also the sci-fi god film "Space Exploration Editorial Department", which has received a high reputation at many film festivals in the mainland in the past two years, and finally determined the release schedule on April 1. Although the genre determines that it is difficult for the film to go far at the market level, it still has some influence at least among fans and audiences in high-tier cities.
The short-term gap remains, and the long-term improvement will not change
There are enough projects, rich types, and the number of excellent works is definitely not few. But I have to admit that the biggest problem with these more than ten new films is the lack of volume.
Among these scheduled projects, there are a large number of imported films with low box office ceilings, and a few sequels to some blockbuster films do not all have sufficient appeal in the mainland market. The lack of a certain volume of domestic films dooms these new films to support the off-season market.
Another supporting force in the off-season in previous years, the Spring Festival film, it is difficult to be placed on too much expectation. In the previous two years, for example, the Spring Festival films of the first two years were released in February, and there were only three and two seats left in the top five films at the monthly box office in March of the same year, and by April, all the Spring Festival films had fallen out of the top five at the monthly box office.
Considering that this year's Spring Festival films are generally of high quality, the long-tail potential energy is good, and it should be able to continue harvesting in the next few weeks. But the Spring Festival film will eventually usher in the moment of withdrawal.
Finally, at the market level, the biggest source of pressure on the Spring Festival stall this year lies in the lack of the Qingming stall. In previous years, every year this time would catch up with the three-day Qingming mini-holiday, which brought a certain increase to the broader market. Like the Qingming file in 2021, with the excellent performance of "My Sister", it helped the schedule create a record high with a total box office of 822 million.
However, this year's Qingming Festival coincides with a Wednesday, and the Qingming file is in a state of existence in name only. This will cause some small and medium-sized films suitable for Qingming files to shift to the battlefield, and secondly, it will also lead to the disappearance of this part of the market increment, increasing the pressure on the off-season market.
But the good side is that as the market continues to pick up this year, and there is less possibility of the local epidemic rebound and control upgrade in the previous two years, the market capacity will definitely be higher than the same period of the previous two years. So overall, there is still a lot of margin in the off-season market in the current three-month off-season, which can accommodate a larger number of new films.
In the next May Day holiday, a new market outbreak will usher in. This year's May 1st file is another long period with a five-day long holiday, counting the three new domestic films that have been set, "The King of the Long Sky", "Life Road is Unfamiliar" and "Prosecutor Wind and Cloud", as well as the rumored "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" that is expected to be synchronized, the May 1st file has already locked the "bloody storm" early.
Since then, there are "520 files" "Please Don't Trust Her" and Dragon Boat Stall's "Disappearing Her", which also officially announced the release date early, which is quite a bit of "seat occupancy". It is not difficult to predict that in the market in 2023, competition and competition will be the norm in every schedule and even non-schedule.
This three-month off-season may be one of the few "small tests" in the recovery process of the film market this year.