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Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus, two former members of the Soviet Union, have been in conflict over the ownership of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, involving the interests of international powers, which eventually led to Azerbaijan's attack, while the United States chose to retreat from the limelight.
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On the afternoon of September 19, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced that it would conduct an "anti-terrorist" operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. They quickly captured Nagorno-Karabakh with artillery fire, an action that contrasted with Armenia's ongoing joint U.S. military exercises. Russian media said that the increased activity of the Western bloc in the region has exacerbated the conflict, while Russian peacekeepers moved quickly to assist the population to evacuate the war zone. The United States, for its part, expressed its unwillingness to engage Azerbaijan and immediately withdrew its troops.
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Azerbaijan's actions are aimed at disarming Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and fighting for control of the region. They used large-caliber artillery, rocket artillery, as well as precision strikes by drones and missiles in the offensive, which quickly weakened Armenia's resistance in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. After the "Republic of Eltsakh" lost its counterattack forces, Azerbaijan claimed that they were in order to carry out anti-terrorist activities and rescue civilians.
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Armenia took a different position from Azerbaijan and showed a more rational attitude. Despite the long rivalry between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the Armenian Defense Ministry clarified on social media that the army in the Nagorno-Karabakh region belongs to the "Republic of Ertsakh" and that no Armenian troops are stationed. Armenian Prime Minister Pasinia openly recognized Azerbaijan's de facto control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, implying that Armenia had nothing to do with it. However, he also expressed his dissatisfaction with Russia, accusing it of inaction on the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
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The pro-American position of the Armenian government led to serious consequences of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia, which could have relied on Russian support, chose to ally with the United States and said it wanted to join NATO, putting itself between two anti-American leaders, Russia and Iran. This choice of the Armenian regime took a huge toll on the population, not only in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, but also in the country against it. The Armenian government eventually used force to suppress the protests, further destabilizing the situation in the country.
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According to the position of the Armenian government, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may well end soon and the region will return to Azerbaijani control. Armenia was clearly at a disadvantage in this conflict, losing the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Turkey has also taken the opportunity to increase its influence in the Caucasus. How the Armenian government responds to the situation in the future will determine the fate of the country. However, pro-American Armenia may still face geopolitical difficulties because of the limited presence of their ally, the United States, in the region. The decisions of the Armenian government will have a profound impact on the country and the population, all because of the unwise choices of the government.
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