"Military Secondary Plane" author: Military Wu Mushroom
On September 19, 2023, just as the Russian-Ukrainian war continued to attract the attention of the world, Azerbaijan, which had been stationing the ceasefire line between Asia and Afghanistan for many days, decisively attacked and launched another focused attack on the disputed sites of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
▲ The Azerbaijani Army entered the area where it was driven away by the runner-up in 1993
In this attack, Azerbaijan still showed its own good skills, first concentrating on precision strike weapons and carrying out surprise attacks on Armenia's valuable and rare advanced anti-aircraft weapons and early warning radar stations.
After the air defense suppression was basically completed, the TB2 UAV of the Afghan army dispatched again, naming the fire support positions deployed by the runners one by one, and destroying the old runner-up artillery one by one with advanced air-to-ground guided munitions.
▲ The runner-up artillery apparently did not absorb the latest experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and was still concentrated and miserably named
Armenia quickly issued a humiliating "conscription" under the fierce air strikes of Azerbaijan, and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan said: "Armenia will not take hostile actions against Azerbaijan due to the deterioration of the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region." Armenia did not participate in military operations, and there were no Armenian armed forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region. We will not take any reckless action at this time. ”
▲ was speed-run
This speech by the Armenian Prime Minister is almost identical to the practice of cutting Taiwan and the Japanese invaders after the defeat of the Great Qing Dynasty and the Japanese invaders that year, and the Great Qing also said that "the Anti-Japanese Volunteer Army on the island of Taiwan is not the official army of the Great Qing Dynasty..."
In other words, Armenia officially declared that it was no longer able to resist Azerbaijan's taking of the remaining Nagorno-Karabakh accompli.
And at the official level, the Armenian fighters who were still resisting the Azerbaijani forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region were betrayed. Because once the government officially announces, "they are all spontaneous resistance, and have nothing to do with my government." "Then the channel for openly and massively replenishing their ordnance and food is cut off." (The Great Song Emperor "finished Yan Construction" called the insider)
According to the current situation, Azerbaijan has pocketed all the land of its dreams and wantonly humiliated Armenia is already a sure thing ...
Although this confrontation between two small countries in Asia and Afghanistan is far away from us and not large-scale, it can be called a miniature version of modern warfare, and there are many things worth tasting.
What strategic choices did the Asian side make wrong, and how did the Arab side seize the strategic opportunity? In this issue of push, let's talk about this.
Arms purchases, increased blood pressure
Unlike today's tragic experience of swallowing the bitter fruits of defeat, Armenia won successive victories in the series of armed conflicts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh in the early years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The Armenian army, with its superior tactical literacy and command level in ground battles, often defeated or even surrounded the larger Azerbaijani army, which once forced the Albanian side to recruit small soldiers about 16 years old to participate in the battle. After a series of victories in the Asian side, the two countries signed a peace agreement in May 1994 with the mediation of Russia, and the Asian side gained the upper hand.
▲In the traditional ground contest in the 90s, the runner-up had the upper hand
Although there is little information on the runners' specific preparations after their victory in the 90s, the mistakes made by the Armenian army or its government in terms of the performance of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 are catastrophic.
The first is basically completely ignoring the rapid development level of UAV technology in recent years, knowing that its thousand-year-old enemy Turkey has been supporting Azerbaijan, and still lacks timely follow-up research on home-made UAVs, especially in the case that Turkish TB2 UAVs have emerged in many battlefields, the runner-up still mainly introduces traditional conventional weapons when purchasing military equipment.
In particular, the project of procurement of anti-aircraft weapons systems for the runners is hell.
Armenia, as a small country with a small economy and where every penny of military spending is very valuable, should naturally be careful in its arms purchases and spend every penny on the cutting edge. But how did they waste military spending before the war in 2020? Two things that raise blood pressure are enough to tell the point.
The first is the second-hand Sam-8 air defense missile system bought back from Jordan for tens of millions of dollars; The second is the Yugoslav M55 type 20mm man-operated anti-aircraft gun of Haitao ...
▲Used Sam 8 bought from Jordan
▲ M55 anti-aircraft gun mounted on an MTLB armored vehicle, the photo was taken after the capture by Azerbaijan
The consequences of the long-outdated missiles and anti-aircraft artillery of the technical level of the Second World War were thrown into the 2020 war: the runner-up air defense almost completely became a target for the Azerbaijani UAV forces ...
A large number of old air defense systems have become dead targets and are hit, and their only role is to consume a single Afghan missile.
▲ The Afghan army's drone air raid tactics blew up the runner-up completely unable to raise his head
However, it is not right to say that the runner did not master new weapons at all, because in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the runner also used a small number of Seahawk 10 drones imported from Russia to correct artillery impact points, and used small suicide drones to attack some Afghan targets.
The hidden problem behind this may be: although there are some cutting-edge forces in the runner-up who know the power of new weapons, they are slight, and they are completely suppressed by the diehards or old army leaders, which eventually makes the new quality combat power completely undeveloped in the runner-up.
▲ The runner-up also attacked the Afghan army with drones
After the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, for the runner-up, although it is a big mistake has been cast, but it can still take some remedial measures, targeted procurement of some new equipment, restraining the Afghan army, after all, Azerbaijan is also a small country, it can not afford to purchase a perfect anti-UAV, anti-patrol missile air defense system, if the runner-up can also introduce some advanced drones and patrol missiles, it can also tear the Afghan offensive troops fiercely.
Even, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, some successful experiences are clearly taken and can be used, and now the cheap suicide aircraft of the "crossing machine hanging RPG" widely used by the Russian and Ukrainian armies on the battlefield is a very suitable counterattack weapon for small countries, and the first batch of suicide crossing aircraft put into actual combat on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is that the soldiers of both sides rubbed their hands in the war zone with accessories purchased online, and there are no technical barriers at all... However, we don't see any official action from the runner-up in this regard.
▲ This simple patrol missile is extremely cheap, even if Armenia groups hundreds of units, it can make the Afghan army very uncomfortable
What is even more embarrassing is that as early as the defeat in 2020, some media inside Armenia shouted, why don't we go to China to buy some Rainbow drones and Red Arrow 12 anti-tank missiles?
▲ Armenian reflection, if there is money to buy anti-aircraft artillery that is not useful, it is better to buy something good
In fact, instead of buying China's advanced combat effectiveness, Armenia has made a more blood-threatening operation, according to a number of foreign media reports, it went to India to sign a package of arms procurement plans, planning to introduce Indian-made "Pinaca" modular 214mm rocket launchers and 30 155mm self-propelled howitzers...
▲ ATAGS self-propelled howitzer with improvised power plant
▲ "Pinaca" modular 214mm rocket launcher
Regarding Armenia's operation, I can only say "put aside the plot of helping others and respect the fate of other countries". After all, the four sets of anti-artillery radar systems that Armenia bought from India before, it is good to use them themselves best, and if they have bought it once and will buy it again, then there is no need to feel sorry for him, maybe the truth behind it is "you laugh at him for not understanding artillery, he laughs at you for not understanding kickbacks." ”
Diplomatic operations are suffocating
Compared with the arms procurement of the runner-up, the diplomatic operation of the Asian government is even more suffocating, in the international community, let alone small and medium-sized countries, even large countries such as the P5 must understand the truth of "should stop loss, should bow and bow down".
Many times countries make diplomatic decisions, not because of emotional factors, but because practical interests dictate that you have to.
▲ It is never shameful to ask for people for the sake of national interests
As a small country coerced by Turkey, its enemy, and facing the constant threat of invasion by Azerbaijan, Armenia's diplomatic choice is often not a choice, and it must choose to hold a thigh to ensure security.
For a long time in the past, this thigh is Russia, the 102nd military base of the Russian army has been stationed in Armenia for a long time, and the important role played by this base is to deter Turkey and ensure the bottom line security of Armenia.
▲The 102nd military base of the Russian army has been stationed in northwest Armenia for a long time
From Armenia's point of view, although the Russian army at the base has had a bad security incident in which drunken soldiers shot and killed the entire family of Armenian civilians, from the perspective of national security, relations with Russia must be guaranteed in any case, which is the necessary responsibility of a mature government.
▲ The incident seriously worsened Armenia's impression of the Russian army, but as a qualified government, it cannot be held hostage by the people in many things
The Asian government has been adopting a policy of alienation towards Russia in recent years, and its prime minister can even refuse to give Putin face in person, refusing to sign a collective statement, but instead adopting a policy of affinity towards the United States, India and other countries. This diplomatic approach of "North Korea and Russia twilight" has made Armenia successfully make Russia dislike itself on the one hand, and on the other hand, it does not have enough capital to pull the United States, and finally makes the two major powers adopt a perfunctory attitude of "it doesn't matter".
Another negative effect of being close to the United States is that it prevents it from seeking help from another emerging regional power: Iran. Iran is actually very powerful in the region, it has always been at odds with Turkey and Israel, and naturally has the potential to be an ally, but, "you are all pro-American, Iran still helps you..."
Armenia and Iran border the north, which is very convenient to receive aid, but its pro-American policy makes Iran not want to help vigorously
Azerbaijan's diplomacy, on the other hand, is much more sophisticated.
Through arms purchases, Azerbaijan has pulled Turkey, a traditional ally, on the one hand, and Israel on the other, which has given itself "united front value" in the face of both regional powers. Moreover, through Israel, Azerbaijan also indirectly sent a signal to the United States: "Big brother, I have a good relationship with your brother, I only do some things around me, I can't hinder you, I do something you shouldn't see." In terms of my own worth, I am more useful than Armenia. ”
In particular, in Azerbaijan's arsenal, there is a long-range rocket launcher "Polonaz" jointly developed by China and Belarus (the rocket artillery part is responsible for China, and the launcher is in charge of Belarus).
▲Polonaise rocket artillery display ceremony in Azerbaijan
After buying this rocket launcher, Azerbaijan has continuously purchased its long-range precision-guided munitions from China, enhancing its own national defense strength while also expressing goodwill to China (real money is spent on us).
This manual operation can be described as exquisite, dripping water.
In 2023, taking advantage of Russia's deep quagmire in the Russian-Ukrainian war, this war opportunity is also very good, quick victory, quick victory, and even knock Russia by the way, give a little disgrace to Russian peacekeeping forces on the ground (but also to further show loyalty to Turkey, "I Azerbaijan is absolutely loyal, there is no two-pronged situation").
▲Is it really a careless manslaughter?
Negative typical lessons are profound
For Armenia, it ended up paying a huge price for its strategic mistakes, and fortunately it is now a civilized society, and no matter how morally corrupt the Azerbaijani army is (massacre of prisoners of war, abuse, rape, robbery of ordinary people on the Internet) is limited to the scourge of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region who did not have time to escape, it can no longer carry out a blatant genocide against Armenia as in the past.
The negative lessons revealed in Armenia are worth learning from all countries, including us:
1. We must profoundly understand the direction of development of new military technology, and no matter how hard we work hard if the line is wrong, it will be over.
2. National foreign policy must be based on comprehensive consideration of practical interests.
3. Past victories only belong to the past, whether it is now or in the future, forgetting the war will be dangerous!