Written / Qiuyang Knife
Nearly a decade after the end of the arms embargo on Vietnam, the United States wants to make a big move.
Reuters broke the news on September 23 that the Biden administration is negotiating with Vietnam on the largest arms transfer agreement in the history of the two countries.
Although there are still many variables before the agreement is reached, the Western media has begun to predict that neither China nor Russia will be happy about it.
Can this deal really be reached?
01
A U.S. official, who provided Reuters with information, said: "We have a very productive and promising security relationship with the Vietnamese, and we do see interest in purchasing some U.S. systems, especially equipment that will help them better monitor the waters, perhaps like transport planes and certain other platforms." ”
Under the agreement, the United States will provide Vietnam with a fleet of F-16 fighter jets and help Vietnam develop special financing terms to cover the cost of buying weapons.
According to the report, the consultation process is still in the early stages, the specific terms have not yet been determined, and it may also be finally lost.
It seems that this happened without warning, after all, the United States and Vietnam have just upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership on September 10. As Reuters said, the arms deal could help further "complete" the escalation of relations between the two countries.
But there are two things that make people feel uncomfortable about this agreement.
First, Reuters reported that Washington is confident that Vietnam will not only buy more American weapons in the future, but also allow more weapons from South Korea, India and other countries to enter Vietnam.
That is to say, the United States is not only unilaterally wooing Vietnam, but also tying Vietnam into the pro-American circle in the Indo-Pacific region.
Second, the United States seems to have the ambition of killing two birds with one stone, alienating Vietnam from both China and Russia, with which it has traditionally been close, and forcing it to turn to Washington.
Reuters, Voice of America, AFC and other American and Western media all mentioned China in their headlines, believing that this agreement would make China "annoyed" and "uneasy".
Vietnam is seeking to bolster its maritime defense forces as long-standing disputes in the South China Sea between China and Vietnam heat up, and a large arms deal between the United States and Vietnam will undoubtedly anger China.
At the same time, the media is also focusing on the impact of the agreement on Russia, believing that it will push Russia out of Vietnam.
Low-cost weapons from Russia fill about 80% of Vietnam's arsenal, and this close connection has not been interrupted by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. On September 9, the day before the U.S.-Vietnam confirmed the escalation of relations, the New York Times broke a plan by the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance about secretly buying Russian weapons.
You know, this actually violates US sanctions against Russia.
In this case, pulling Vietnam away from its dependence on Russian weapons is undoubtedly very important for the United States.
02
Looking back at the history of arms sales between the United States and Vietnam, it can be seen that the arms sales agreement is consistent with the development trend of the two sides in the past decade; If reached, it would be a big step forward for both countries in the direction they already have.
Half a century ago, the United States and Vietnam were warring enemies on the Indochina Peninsula. After the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, the United States maintained a ban on arms exports to Vietnam.
It wasn't until nearly 40 years later that the Obama administration announced a partial lifting of restrictions in 2014, approving some trade in maritime equipment. The China factor has become the key. A Reuters newspaper quoted anonymous officials that year as saying the devices "could help Vietnam counter China's maritime challenges."
On May 23, 2016, Obama announced the full lifting of the arms embargo on Vietnam during his first visit to Vietnam.
Although Obama explained that "the decision to lift the ban was not based on China or other considerations," media analysis at the time almost invariably linked the move to Obama's pivot to the Asia-Pacific policy, arguing that it was directed at China.
The Biden administration's plan today is an extension of the direction set by its predecessor Democratic president.
However, the development in the middle can be described as relatively slow.
Although the ban has been lifted, arms deals between the United States and Vietnam over the past decade have been limited to coastal patrol boats and trainer aircraft. During this period, Viet Nam imported about $2 billion a year in arms, while the total value of weapons purchased from the United States was less than $400 million.
Trump has little to do with this situation.
In fact, he had no intention of reversing the previous administration's course on arms sales to Vietnam, and during a visit to Hanoi in February 2019, he told the Vietnamese leader with anticipation: "I appreciate that you are considering a lot of our military equipment."
Arguably, three U.S. presidents since Obama have been interested in arms sales to Vietnam.
But the fact is that in recent years, the Vietnamese army has procured an average of about 80% of its weapons and equipment from Russia every year.
It's a link that dates back to the height of the Cold War, beginning with Moscow's support to Vietnam during the Vietnam War. At the 2022 Vietnam Air Show, Russian-style equipment such as Su-30MK2 fighters and Mi helicopters still form the main force of the Vietnamese army.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Vietnam has accelerated the process of diversifying its weapons sources, but the suppliers who have benefited the most are Israel, India and Eastern European countries. The reason is simple, the weapons supplied by these countries are compatible with Russian-style systems, on which Vietnam still highly depends.
In this regard, the United States clearly does not have the advantage. Another media analysis believes that the high price has also interrupted the sales of many US weapons.
From this point of view, whether the large-scale arms agreement between the United States and Vietnam can be reached and implemented is still quite suspenseful.
03
An expert on Southeast Asia interviewed by Supplement One Dao believes that both the United States and Vietnam currently have no lack of motivation to promote the arms sales agreement.
For the United States, Vietnam is an important partner in its Indo-Pacific strategy with China, and improving Vietnam's defense capability is a clear strategic need of the United States.
For Vietnam, recent disputes with China over islands and reefs in the South China Sea require military modernization, and building asymmetric defense capabilities against China naturally requires new weapons.
But the will is not enough.
The U.S. government sometimes uses ideology as a banner, sometimes it puts so-called geopolitics in command, but when it comes time to talk about money, it is by no means ambiguous. If nothing is reciprocated, there is no way for the United States to supply weapons.
Therefore, the "special financing terms" formulated by the United States for Vietnam according to sources are actually very important. For Southeast Asian countries, the purchase of American weapons must be a significant expense. If there is no "concessional" pathway, it will be difficult to reach an agreement.
At the same time, neither the United States nor Vietnam wants to completely stalemate relations with China because of this agreement.
Experts pointed out that Vietnam has long adopted a policy of "betting on both sides" between China and the United States, upgrading relations with the United States on the one hand, and talking about Sino-Vietnamese friendship on the other. Therefore, stimulating China's nerves through this arms sale may outweigh the gains for Vietnam.
As for the United States, experts believe that Sino-US relations have recently released a thaw signal, and there are rumors that the Chinese and US heads of state may meet at this year's APEC summit, and the United States is probably not willing to stimulate China at this time; Next year's U.S. election will add even more variables to the agreement.
It remains to be seen what the future holds for this agreement. Either way, we should be prepared for the possible negative effects of an agreement once it enters into force.
According to experts, the negative impact lies in two aspects.
First of all, there are many emerging countries in Southeast Asia, and in recent years, the maritime awareness of various countries has gradually increased, and the expansion of naval and air forces has become a trend. If Vietnam reaches an arms sales agreement with the United States, it will only exacerbate the development of "reverse disarmament" around the South China Sea.
Although disputes have repeatedly arisen in the South China Sea in recent years, the situation is generally controllable. But under this new development trend, the risk of losing control may be great.
Second, the current negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have entered a critical stage, and if countries rely more on maritime and air capacity building to safeguard their vested interests in the South China Sea, it will undoubtedly be detrimental to the consultations.
No matter how you analyze it, it is Vietnam, not the United States, that will be negatively affected.
So we still have to advise Vietnam again: be vigilant!
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