Under duress by the United States, India intends to send troops to intervene in the war in the Taiwan Strait. The Philippines has broken into Ren'ai Reef three times and repeatedly touched China in the South China Sea. The United States is complaining again that China has frozen the U.S.-China military hotline. China and Canada cannot reconcile, Trudeau has no hope for China-Canada relations?
India could intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait and go to war with China
In recent years, India has been getting closer and closer to the Western bloc led by the United States. The Indian side has not only joined the "quadrilateral security dialogue mechanism" between the United States, Japan, India and Australia, but also began to purchase a large number of Western weapons and frequently conduct joint military exercises with the West.
In the past, few people linked these phenomena to the Taiwan Strait, because India's main sphere of influence was the Indian Ocean region, which was contained in southwest China, but India showed its fangs as it gradually deepened its relations with the West.
According to Bloomberg News Agency, citing senior officials of the Indian government, India is studying how to participate in the war in the Taiwan Strait under the suggestive inquiry of the United States.
Two Indian government officials told Bloomberg that about six weeks ago, Indian Defense Minister Johan ordered a study on the full impact of the war waged by the United States and its allies in the Taiwan Strait and the actions that India could take. These officials also revealed that the United States has raised this issue with India on different occasions many times, so the Indian side will conduct relevant investigations.
After investigation, the Indian military finally believes that India can act as a logistics hub for the West, providing maintenance and maintenance for the warships and aircraft of Western "allies", and providing them with food fuel and medical equipment; If the conflict becomes more extreme, India could step in directly, opening up a new battlefield on the northern Sino-Indian border, leaving China facing a two-front battle.
If this information is true, it will greatly subvert the intuitive impression of India in the outside world. Because India has shown a firm non-aligned position for many years, once India joins the United States coalition when the conflict between China and the United States breaks out and becomes one of the US allies, it means that India has abandoned the non-alignment policy that it has adhered to since independence and completely turned to the West.
After India joins the battlefield, it will also pose a great threat to China's security. Although there is a huge gap between the strength of the Indian army and China, after becoming an ally of the United States, it will receive technical and equipment support from the West, so as to have stronger combat effectiveness, contain more Chinese forces in the southwest direction, and effectively reduce the pressure faced by the United States after provoking a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Even if India were to serve only as a logistics hub, it could greatly improve the problem of insufficient productivity in the West. In the most extreme case, the West can establish a complete equipment production line in India, relying on India's own industrial base and cheap labor to produce expendable equipment in large quantities, so that the West can match or even surpass China at the productivity end, thereby changing the situation of the battlefield.
Finally, although not mentioned in the relevant reports, India is also a naval power. India could provide the West with moderately advanced aircraft carriers and destroyers with regional air defense capabilities, which would make the situation facing China at sea more difficult.
In short, as long as India joins the West, it will become a huge variable in war.
But even if India has such ambitions, China's attitude towards the Taiwan issue will not change in the slightest, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning directly responded to India's relevant attitude at a regular press conference on September 8, indicating that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair, and how to solve the Taiwan issue is Chinese its own business and does not allow any external interference.
This shows that even if India intends to join the battlefield, China will still stick to its bottom line and resist all aggression from outside.
In addition, if we analyze it more deeply, we can also find that after the Indian side intervened in the Taiwan Strait, it could not actually get any benefits. Even if India becomes an ally of the West and receives support from the West, it will lose support from developing countries around the world while its military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, which is inconsistent with India's long-standing desire to become the "leader of the Global South" and will completely disrupt India's development strategy.
Therefore, it is better for India to restrain its ambitions and become a normal country, otherwise, India will reap another complete defeat like the last invasion of China.
The Philippines broke into Ren'ai Jiao three times and failed again
While India is about to move, the Philippines has launched another operation in the South China Sea.
On September 8, the China Coast Guard released a report showing that two Philippine supply ships and two coast guard vessels had once again intruded into the waters near Ren'ai Jiao in China's Nansha Qundao without permission from the Chinese government.
Obviously, this is what the Philippines predicted in August as it called "the re-shipment of construction materials and supplies to the Sierra Madre". After the Philippines' attempt to deliver building materials to the tank landing ship Sierra Madre on the beach on Ren'ai Reef on August 5 was driven away by Chinese water cannons, the Philippines created tension while warning the outside world that it would send building materials supplies to the Sierra Madre again.
On August 22, the Philippines sent supply ships to Second Thomas Jiao, but was unsuccessful in supplying building materials. Under the warning and follow-up of the China Coast Guard vessel, the supply ship carrying building materials failed to approach the Madrid. But the Chinese allowed the resupply vessels to feed the Philippine Marines stranded on the Sierra Madre for humanitarian reasons. Therefore, the incident on the 8th is the third attempt by the Philippines to storm Ren'ai Jiao.
Judging from the information flowing out this time, the Philippine side has still not succeeded in transporting building materials to the Sierra Madre, and if the Philippine transport ship carrying building materials successfully enters Ren'ai Jiao, the current international public opinion will certainly not be so calm, China will definitely have stronger countermeasures, and the Philippines will definitely trumpet this.
This result is not surprising. In fact, no matter how many times the Philippines comes, the result will not change, because the disparity in power between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is too large, and in the 24 years since the Philippines sent the Sierra Madre to illegally wash the beach, China's control over Ren'ai Jiao and the surrounding waters has not weakened, but has been strengthened.
The Philippines originally wanted to illegally swear sovereignty by virtue of the grounding of the Sierra Madre, but so far, the Philippines has not been able to effectively establish a foothold on Ren'ai Reef, and can only shrink in the Sierra Madre, where seamlessly rotating Chinese coast guard ships and patrol warships completely control Ren'ai Reef and the surrounding islands, and the Sierra Madre can only be regarded as illegally stranded in China's territorial waters at best.
The fundamental reason why China has not dealt with the Sierra Madre and allowed the Philippines to supply food is that China does not want conflicts to break out in the South China Sea and wants to solve the problem with the Philippines through dialogue. The humanitarian concern shown to the Filipino personnel aboard the Sierra Madre is a sincere manifestation of the dialogue between China and the Philippines. If the Philippines does not want to be drawn into the war, it is better to put aside its obsession with encroaching on China's territory and resolve the South China Sea issue through dialogue with China.
Although China is now able to ensure that the Philippines cannot pass the checkpoint and supply the building materials behind Sierra Madre, China's patience is limited and it is impossible to deal with the impact of Philippine ships endlessly. Once the Philippines runs out of China's patience, the possibility of waiting for the Philippines will no longer be a moderate attitude of dialogue and settlement. The Philippines had better think more about what is at stake.
The Sino-US hotline is frozen, and there is no hope of resuming military exchanges
After talking about the latest events in the South China Sea, let's focus on a rather sensitive issue in the near future - the resumption of military exchanges between China and the United States.
After Pelosi's visit last year, China and the United States completely cut off military exchanges and have not been effectively restored until today. In the first half of this year, the United States wanted to promote dialogue between Chinese and US defense ministers and gradually resume Sino-US military exchanges. However, due to the unwillingness of the United States to lift sanctions against China's defense minister, it was ultimately unable to facilitate dialogue.
In the months that followed, the two sides also tried to talk at a lower level, but they never had much success. Chinese and American military officials met in Fiji in August, but neither side disclosed details of the meeting, apparently not much progress.
According to the South China Morning Post on September 8, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs Ratner once again complained about the interruption of China's military hotline, saying that China "does not seem to have any signs of resuming military communication with the United States."
He declared that the United States "has repeatedly sought" to establish open channels of communication with China, but that "for political reasons" China has always turned these switches on and off like light switches. However, he also acknowledged that because the United States has imposed sanctions on a large number of senior Chinese military officials, including the defense minister, the proposal to restart communications will only be rejected by the Chinese side.
Ratner's series of statements shows a very classic American arrogance, that is, the United States can realize what the problem is, but instead of correcting it, it accuses others of ignoring the "efforts" of the United States to improve relations and puts the responsibility on others.
But in fact, the issue of military exchanges between China and the United States is very simple, that is, the United States is unwilling to show sincerity to China, and Ratner has already spoken out the problem, as long as the United States lifts sanctions against China's high-level military, Sino-US communication channels will naturally be restored, and the Sino-US hotline can be restored.
We do not deny the importance of Sino-US military exchanges. For the two countries with the strongest military forces in the world, maintaining military exchanges is an important issue related to global peace, especially when the relationship between the two countries is tense, poor military exchanges may lead to serious miscalculations and the vicious consequences of Sino-US conflicts.
But we must also understand that in Sino-US military relations, the United States is the party that takes the initiative to deteriorate. The United States should take the initiative to ease relations. Whatever the implications of the U.S.-China military relationship, it should not be premised on China selling out its own national security interests.
Therefore, instead of complaining to the media that China "does not answer the phone", the United States should start to solve the problems it has already raised, correct its mistakes, and be responsible for its own and global security. Otherwise, once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States, the United States will have to bear the full cost.
China-Canada relations continue to be tense, and there is no hope of relaxation
In addition to the United States, Canada, one of the loyal "little brothers" of the United States, has also recently begun to complain about China.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in an interview with the media in Singapore on September 7 that China's decisions in the past few years "have made it more difficult for China and Canada to interact," according to Bloomberg.
He declared that he had hoped for a free trade agreement with China when he came to power in 2015, but relations between the two countries began to turn hostile in 2018. At that time, Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, an executive of China's Huawei company, in response to an extradition request from the United States; The Chinese side detained two Canadians in China and imposed a food export embargo on Canada, which led to a sharp deterioration in Sino-Canadian relations.
He believes that the current relationship between China and Canada has not deteriorated too much, but it has not improved in any way, and Canada still needs to engage with China in areas such as climate change, but there is no room for reconciliation between China and Canada at present.
Trudeau's series of speeches is still the same old way of dealing with China, and its core idea is still that Canada follows the steps of the United States, jointly contains China, and wants China to make concessions on key issues to achieve the US containment goal.
Its argument is also very similar to that of the United States, that is, it has said its own mistakes, but it has never meant to correct them, but believes that China's normal countermeasures are wrong.
The most direct manifestation of this thinking is that Trudeau still refuses to admit that Canadians detained in China are detained for crimes, insisting that they were "arbitrarily detained" by China "for political purposes", but does not explain the fact that Canada is detaining Meng Wanzhou for purely political purposes.
This double-standard attitude has been shown many times in Canada, and when Canadians were sentenced to death for drug trafficking in China, the Canadian government also insisted on blaming China, completely ignoring that drug trafficking will also be severely punished by law in Canada.
This is an arrogance similar to that of the United States. Therefore, the fundamental reason for the continued inease of relations between China and Canada is very similar to the reason for the indétente of Sino-US relations, which is that Canada itself has never been able to show enough sincerity and express a correct attitude.
Therefore, we should also exhort the improvement of China-Canada relations - instead of complaining about China's unwillingness to improve relations, it is better to reflect on our own actions, otherwise it will be too late to regret after being involved in the conflict by the United States.