Huawei MATE 60 PRO is still fermenting, foreign social media and foreign versions of Zhihu QUORA answers are becoming more and more exciting, everywhere is pervasive with the statement that US sanctions have completely failed, it is estimated that Biden can see his face can be green, and some insiders pointed out that Huawei's 7nm process breakthrough may have the greatest impact on Qualcomm, if Huawei opens 5G technology, Qualcomm can directly bankruptcy!
Washington Post: China has been able to bypass US sanctions!
On September 2, the US media "Washington Post" released a very interesting report, from the perspective of the US media analysis of the shock caused by the Americans by Huawei during the visit of US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo to the Americans.
In another report, the Washington Post quoted a teardown report by analyst firm TechInsights, which found that Huawei had broken through the U.S. blockade to build an advanced 7nm process processor, which the research firm said showed that the Chinese government was making significant progress in building a domestic chip ecosystem.
In fact, before the disassembly of TechInsights, a Japanese laboratory also disassembled the MATE 60 PRO, and it was found that there was really no American chip on the motherboard, which was extremely shocking for the Japanese laboratory, and Huawei really achieved de-Americanization!
That's why the Washington Post lamented, has the US blockade failed? The shadow "over Washington" is whether the U.S. lockdown has failed, and Paul Triolo, head of technology policy at the Albright Stonebridge Group, a business consulting firm, said the new phone is a major blow to the United States.
Although the Mate 60 Pro still has a relatively large gap compared with the top products in the United States, this is a masterpiece completed under Huawei's complete de-Americanization, which shows that Huawei has embarked on a path of de-Americanization! An important reason for the US sanctions against Huawei is that Huawei has established a large number of standards in the field of 5G, but the mobile phone released this time has been tested to confirm that it already has the communication speed of 5G!
This made the United States realize a problem, under the full sanctions Huawei still broke through, does this mean that the sanctions have no effect or Huawei will face more severe sanctions? The views of the US media are completely different from those of the White House!
Huawei's chips show that U.S. restrictions are full of holes
The subtitle was a September 4 report by Bloomberg by Tim Kalpan, a Bloomberg columnist whose main coverage is Asian technology, who said that the release of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro shows that the effect of sanctions is not obvious, and the real impact has not yet arrived.
Tim Kalpin said that the impact is twofold, China currently has ASML equipment on hand can achieve a minimum of 5nm process through multiple exposure modes, although the US Department of Commerce announced in October 2022 to ban the export of manufacturing tools for 16nm or below to China, ASML can still export lithography machines to China up to the UV exposure level by the end of 2023.
The latest equipment provided by ASML shows that China can improve the process down to 5 nanometers through technological improvement, although the cost will rise and the yield will decrease, but China can still improve the situation through the process, and the production of these lithography machines due to the limited number, it will be difficult to further expand the production capacity.
Another implication, Tim Kalpin said, is that if China does make further breakthroughs, the United States and its allies have many ways to tighten restrictions, including expanding the scope of the equipment ban and adding materials to the list. Simply put, the U.S. government is likely to increase sanctions, which will make it harder for China to access relevant technologies and resources.
But at the same time, it will further stimulate China's determination to independently develop 5~3 nm process lithography machines, because China has a strong foundation and a national system, and the excessive cost is no longer an obstacle in the case of sanctions, which is equivalent to making up its mind for China's independent research and development, so Tim Calpin also said that the United States restrictions need to be made up but a bigger crisis or is happening.
THE WHITE: It seems that a decision has been made to increase sanctions
According to previous reports, the White House's countermeasures have been released, to the effect that the United States will evaluate and analyze the level of Huawei MATE 60 PRO technology, but regardless of the outcome, the United States will continue to impose sanctions! However, judging from the tone of the White House spokesman, if the analysis of Huawei's technical level reaches a higher level above the limit that the White House believes, then the increase in sanctions seems to be a firm fact.
However, since Huawei intends to publicly "eye medicine" Gina Raimondo during her visit to China, it must have anticipated that the United States would increase sanctions, and now it is not afraid! According to the rumors of Changchun Guangji Institute, China seems to have a major breakthrough in lithography machines and will directly enter the 3nm process in the future, but the news released so far seems to be only a statement on social media, and there is no official unified statement.
Huawei breaks through 5G, and the biggest impact is Qualcomm!
Huawei has a 5 nanometer SoC-level chip, the world is very curious, in addition to disassembling the mobile phone, there are foreign institutions on the Kirin9000S electron microscopy scan, the results show data of 980 million transistors per square millimeter, transistor density between TSMC N7P and N6, reaching a fairly high level!
However, high-frequency energy consumption is relatively poor, only equivalent to Samsung 8LPP, this result is relatively different from the highest-end 3nm process chip, but for China, this is the result after just 3 years, which is quite remarkable!
In QUORA (foreign version of Zhihu), a good deed asked a particularly interesting question: "Does the launch of Huawei Mate 60 Prot with 5G Kirin 9000S processor mean the defeat of the US trade war with China?", a certain god of the National University of Singapore answered very wonderfully, the author said that there are two core influences: one is Apple, the other is Qualcomm!
Huawei's SoC (system-on-chip, including core, storage, peripheral interface, bus, interrupt module, clock module, etc.) has a customized GPU, which is more independent than Apple's A chip, which means that Huawei's SoC solution with integrated GPU has more advantages than Apple's CPU.
The other is to drive Qualcomm crazy because there is a built-in 5G modem! What does this mean? Because Apple, which has a market value of nearly 3 trillion yuan, has not broken through Qualcomm's patent barriers in 5G technology, but Huawei has done it, if Huawei opens 5G patents to Chinese mobile phone giants such as Xiaomi, OPPO, VIVO, IQOO, ONEPLUS ONEPLUS, MEIZU MEIZU, etc., then the Chinese market basically has nothing to do with Qualcomm.
So from this point of view, you can understand that from GPU to 5G technology and CPU technology and other completely through the company, it is estimated that only Huawei, if the current lithography machine breaks through, Huawei is already a collection of Western high-tech technology in one of the super high-tech companies, is such a company to make the entire West afraid?
The case of memory chips: there will be a moment when the whole West will collapse
Memory chip is a special case, due to its storage requirements high reliability particularity, its process does not need low nano process, so the current 14 nm is enough to use, large-capacity storage is often achieved through stacking, Yangtze River storage took the lead in achieving 232 layers of stacking, the SSD dried to the price of cabbage, TB-level hard disk is only 2-300 pieces, cheaper than mechanical disks.
Samsung, which used to often catch fire, no longer caught fire, trying to think that the game of manufacturing a tight supply chain is no longer effective, and China's Yangtze River Storage is like a firefighter, preventing problems before they happen, which is really an unexpected result.
The other is GPU technology, which is somewhat different from CPU requirements, GPU process requirements are relatively low, at present, China's GPU technology has been able to reach the level of NVIDIA A100, and there are opportunities for improvement in the future, so China will not lag behind the West too much in AI technology.
In the future, China will completely win the entire production capacity of low-end chips accounting for more than 70~80% of the world, so watching Jordan Schneider, the host of a ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter that sang down China's semiconductor industry, published two tweets in 2020 and 2023 is really emotional:
Here's the background: The U.S. government's new export controls were wreaking havoc on China's chip industry, as the U.S. was introducing draconian semiconductor controls on China.
This is Jordan Schneider's judgment that year, China's semiconductor industry has zeroed overnight, and there is no chance of survival! Please note that the date is October 14, 2022.
However, less than a year later, Jordan Schneider once again tweeted his concern: "How to ensure that by 2030 we no longer have 70% of traditional chips made in China, does anyone have any good ideas?" A year ago, it said that Chinese semiconductors were dead, and a year later, how can it be ensured that there is no Chinese manufacturing accounting for 70% of semiconductors?
So, how to ensure that China does not occupy 70% of the global semiconductor production capacity? The case of solar cells has just passed less than 15 years, in 2011~2013 Europe and the United States implemented a double reverse of China's semiconductors, at this time China did not lead to large-scale bankruptcy because of its marketization, but injected capital and achieved industrial upgrading, by 2016~2017 China's solar cells have been upgraded and completed to replenish!
Looking at the solar industry now, more than 85% of the world's solar energy capacity is in China! How many years did it take to go from less than 5% of the world in 2005 to 85% of the world around 2020? That's just 15 years! So Jordan Schneider's concerns are not superfluous, so the question left for now is: if China does win 70% of the world's low-end chips, what will happen then? Please consider and leave a message at the end of the article, thank you very much!