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With the advent of the Age of Discovery, Europe has always played a central role in the world order. Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, they have successively appeared on the world stage, once dominated the seas. However, the tide of history cannot be stopped, and the international situation is constantly changing, and this change is often unexpected. Today, let's take a look back at this long journey and explore the possibilities of the future world pattern.
At the beginning of the Age of Discovery, Spain emerged as a maritime power. Then the Netherlands rose to power, known as the coachman of the sea, holding the dominance of shipping. But in the end, Britain, with its powerful navy and the dividends of the Industrial Revolution, reached the pinnacle of the Sun Never Set Empire. However, British hegemony did not last forever, and France, Russia and Germany challenged one after another, eventually losing their leadership after World War II. Subsequently, the United States emerged as the new world hegemon. At the same time, the Soviet Union also rose with its great strength, the world entered a bipolar pattern, and the United States and the Soviet Union began a forty-year Cold War.
However, in the 90s of the last century, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the world pattern underwent great changes again, evolving into a pattern of "one superpower, many powers". However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the United States was involved in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, greatly weakened its national strength, triggered two financial crises, and entered a period of recession. At the same time, emerging powers such as China, Russia, India and Brazil have emerged as international powers to be reckoned with. The current international landscape suggests that two super-Powers and multiple world powers may emerge in the future.
The two superpowers, the United States and China, are now in very different situations. With a combined GDP of more than $25 trillion, more than a quarter of the world, the United States will remain the world's number one power in the short term. However, it is becoming more and more difficult to maintain the comprehensive national strength of the United States, and the total national debt has exceeded $30 trillion, and it is increasingly difficult to maintain global hegemony. At the same time, China's comprehensive national strength has grown rapidly, with a total GDP of more than $18 trillion, and it is expected to become the second country with a total GDP of more than $20 trillion in the near future. Although there is still a gap between China and the United States, China is already a superpower of similar size.
In addition to the two super patterns, there are also multi-strong patterns, covering many world powers. Countries such as the UK, the EU, Russia, India, Brazil, Japan and Indonesia all stand a chance to become one of the best. In addition to the two super-power patterns, other major powers have more room to operate, can choose to take sides, or they can remain neutral and safeguard their national interests. Britain and Japan are likely to be more inclined to work with the US, while Russia is more likely to move closer to China. The EU, India, Indonesia and Brazil are more likely to adopt a balanced strategy and will not easily take sides.
Finally, the neutral pattern means that most countries will take a balanced position and will not easily take sides. Unlike the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the economic and trade ties between the two superpowers of China and the United States are very close, and the decoupling of the global supply chain is almost impossible to achieve. Therefore, the Biden administration has adopted the strategy of technology war and financial war instead of continuing to promote trade war. Although China and the United States compete, the vast majority of small and medium-sized countries will not easily choose one side, and it is wiser to maintain a balance.
To sum up, the possibility of US domination of the world no longer exists. The US Treasury debt is expanding at a worrying rate, and the global landscape is undergoing a profound evolution. In the future, the world will rely more on the multipolar pattern, and countries will need to respond flexibly to safeguard their own interests and peace and stability.
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