After half a century of changes and evolution, Sino-US relations are gradually taking on a new look. The United States' containment of China has long begun, and its China policy has been established since the end of the Liberation War, and with the rise of China, this containment has gradually evolved into a confrontation between the two sides. However, against this backdrop of tension, the centenary of a key figure has attracted widespread attention, and his remarks reveal a challenging prediction that upends conventional wisdom.
Over the past few decades, the United States has implemented an extensive blockade and control strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, establishing it a firm sphere of influence in Japan, South Korea, Indochina and other places. However, as China continues to rise, this blockade strategy is no longer a simple tactic, but a game across borders. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, a key figure in breaking the ice in Sino-US relations, made a remarkable remark on his 100th birthday. He firmly asserted that the greatest potential threat to the United States was not China, but an unexpected country, Japan.
This statement may come as a surprise, but Kissinger's views are not unfounded. Although Japan has long been regarded as the United States' staunchest ally, its political trends and international policies cannot be ignored. Although the United States rebuilt and supported Japan on a large scale after World War II, causing it to rise rapidly as a developed country, Japan showed its desire for independence as early as the last century. From Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka's first establishment of diplomatic relations with China to the rise of Japan's economy on a global scale, there are indications that Japan has not positioned itself as a permanent vassal of the United States.
However, Japan is not without its challenges. Historical defeats have caused them a lot of pain, but this has not hindered their desire for regional influence. Right-wing forces still exist in Japanese society, manifested in the desire for expansion and the controversy over history. Nevertheless, Japan's success in the economic sphere cannot be ignored. The rise of the automotive industry, semiconductors, electronics, and other fields has made Japan an economic powerhouse, even surpassing U.S. expectations in some ways. However, the United States has forced Japan to slow down its development through the Plaza Accord and other means, causing it to fall into a long-term economic downturn.
Abe's policy shift also provides strong evidence for the evolution of U.S.-China relations. During his first term as prime minister of Japan, he tried to improve relations with China and achieve a pro-China policy. However, this attitude was met with countermeasures from the United States, which had to adjust its policy. In recent years, the Japanese government has also gradually reduced its glorification propaganda to the United States, showing a shift from pro-American to relatively independent.
The future of Japan is uncertain. However, in any case, its strength in the economic sphere still has great potential. From Toyota's global sales champion status to the continued development of traditional industries, Japan's industrial strength cannot be underestimated. At this point, China may be able to seek cooperation with Japan to some extent to jointly face the pressure and challenges from the United States.
In short, Kissinger's prediction has triggered deep thinking about Sino-US relations. As a complex and multifaceted country, Japan plays an important role in the international landscape. No matter how its attitude changes, Japan's power and influence will affect the direction of Sino-US relations. For China, cooperation with Japan may create more opportunities for both countries to jointly withstand challenges from the United States.