#每日财经新闻评论#
There are many subdivisions of new materials, among which industrial gases are called the blood of industry, which is defined as gaseous products at room temperature and pressure, and is an important basic raw material for modern industry, which is widely used in various fields of national economy and modern industry, with a wide variety and broad market. Among industrial gases, special gases have become a golden track in industrial gases with the high growth of their downstream industries. The article will be divided into three parts to talk about the investment opportunities of special gases, the first part we will mainly introduce the concept, classification and market space of special gases, the second part will share the application field of electronic special gases and the industry logic under domestic substitution, and finally will talk to you about how to invest in the special gas track.
1. Concept, classification and market space
According to Zheshang Securities, relying on the growth of the national economy and industry, the growth potential of the industrial gas industry is greater, and the scale of the mainland industrial gas market in 2021 will be nearly 200 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate of the domestic gas market from 2017 to 2021 will be about 11%.
The long-term compound growth rate of industrial gases is faster than the GDP growth rate, and the compound annual growth rate of industrial gases in mainland China from 2011 to 2021 is about 1.2 times of GDP and 1.7 times of industrial added value. The demand structure of industrial gases in the domestic market has been continuously optimized, the essence is to follow the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, and the downstream of industrial gases in the mainland has evolved from metal smelting and chemical energy to lithium batteries, semiconductors and other applications.
According to its purity and dosage, industrial gases can be divided into two categories: bulk gases and special gases.
Figure: Industrial gases can be divided into two categories: bulk gases and special gases
Source: China Semiconductor Association, Zhuochuang Information, Zheshang Securities Research Institute
Bulk gas refers to a gas used in large quantities for industrial production and manufacturing, with a purity of less than or equal to 99.99% (4N); According to different preparation methods, it can be divided into air separation gas and synthesis gas. Special gases refer to those pure gases, high-purity gases or binary or multi-element mixtures formulated from high-purity elemental gases that are applied in specific fields and have special requirements for purity, variety and properties. Special gases can be divided into high-purity gases (electronic bulk gases), standard gases and electronic special gases.
Special gases are usually a type of gas products sold to downstream customers in the form of bottles, which are widely used in electronic semiconductors, chemical industry, medical environmental protection and other fields. Special gases have the following characteristics: 1) the production process is difficult and the barriers are high; 2) There are many categories and the amount of single product is small; 3) Customers are mainly concentrated in emerging growth areas, and demand growth is fast; 4) The unit price of the product is high, and the price sensitivity of customers is not as good as that of general gas; 5) The profitability is much higher than that of general gas.
According to Zhuochuang Information, the compound growth rate of mainland special gases from 2018 to 2021 will reach 19%, and the market size is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2022. It is expected to maintain a growth of more than 15% in 2022-2025.
Data source: Zhuochuang Information, Zheshang Securities
Second, application and domestic substitution logic
Electronic special gas is the most important special gas, mainly used in the field of electronic information, and downstream industries include integrated circuits, LCD panels, LEDs, optical fiber communications, crystalline silicon solar cells, etc. Integrated circuit manufacturing involves thousands of processes, the process is extremely complex, and hundreds of electronic special gases are used.
The single product of electronic special gas is small, has high industry barriers, and has strict requirements for gas sources and their supply systems, which is a typical technology-intensive industry. Industry barriers are mainly reflected in three aspects: technical barriers, certification barriers, qualification barriers, followed by capital barriers, market barriers, talent barriers, etc. also constitute industry entry barriers.
According to the North American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), among the chip manufacturing materials, electronic special gas is the second largest semiconductor material after silicon wafer materials, accounting for nearly 14%, which is a key material for semiconductor manufacturing, known as "chip blood" and the "food" of the semiconductor industry.
Benefiting from the demand for 5G, artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, automotive electronics and other fields, the global semiconductor materials market has shown a fluctuating upward trend. Electronic special gas is widely used in photolithography, etching, film formation, cleaning, doping, deposition and other process links in semiconductor manufacturing, and has high requirements for purity, stability, packaging containers, etc.
The report of the 20th National Congress proposed that high-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, and it is necessary to "focus on improving the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain and supply chain". In recent years, the development of the industrial chain has been a hot topic, and in the process of overcoming the shortcomings of the industrial chain, many investment opportunities of "independent innovation and domestic substitution" have also been born.
Zheshang Securities said that China's semiconductor industry is expected to rise, domestic substitution will accelerate, and electronic special gas will benefit. The confrontation between the United States and Japan and China's semiconductor field has escalated, the domestic substitution logic has been strengthened, and the electronic special gas sector has benefited. On March 28, 2023, the Minister of Commerce of the mainland met with the global president of ASML to maintain the stability of China's semiconductor industry supply chain. On March 31, the Mainland Cybersecurity Review Office conducted a cybersecurity review of Micron's products sold in China. At the same time, Japan announced that it will impose restrictions on 23 types of chip-making equipment from July. On March 31, the Mainland Cybersecurity Review Office conducted a cybersecurity review of Micron's products sold in China. On April 13, the premier inspected unicorn enterprises in Beijing, emphasizing the acceleration of key core technology research such as chip R&D and manufacturing. China's mature semiconductor production process continues to expand, and production and sales are expected to exceed market expectations in 2023.
In 2018, foreign-funded enterprises occupied 85% of the market share of domestic electronic special gas, dominating the domestic market supply for a certain period of time, so the current domestic manufacturers have great domestic substitution space.
As a key core material in emerging industries such as semiconductors, electronic special gas is facing the expansion of downstream market demand, while the high price of imported products, long delivery cycle and turbulence in the international situation have brought great instability to the supply of electronic special gas, which seriously restricts the healthy and stable development of strategic emerging industries in mainland China. In order to ensure the stable supply capacity of key materials in mainland strategic emerging industries, in the future, the mainland gas industry urgently needs to increase product types and increase the localization rate through independent innovation, so as to solve the situation that electronic special gas is subject to people as soon as possible.
With the national policy to increase the support of the local electronic special gas industry, domestic enterprises have achieved breakthroughs in some products to reach international standards through continuous accumulation of experience and technology, and have the objective conditions for domestic substitution of special gases, and a number of gas manufacturers with stable production quality have emerged. At present, the manufacturers of the first echelon of domestic electronic special gas already have the ability to replace, have certain advantages in the subdivision field, gradually narrow the gap with foreign leaders, and accelerate the realization of domestic substitution.
Pacific Securities pointed out that the electronic special gas industry has a broad market space, and the domestic demand for electronic special gas will accelerate in the next three years. The three major areas downstream of electronic special gas will go hand in hand, one is semiconductor manufacturing with the development of AI technology is increasing day by day, equipment iterative update, the second is the steady growth of display panels under the gradual recovery of downstream consumer electronics, and the third is the rapid improvement of photovoltaic cells driven by the high policy dividend of the industry, the development opportunities and prospects of these three areas will lay an important foundation for the future growth of the electronic special gas sector. With the increase in domestic semiconductor demand and the continuous expansion of wafer fabs, manufacturers in the specialty gas industry in mainland China are actively increasing production capacity while making technological breakthroughs.
In the future, with the continuous improvement of the technical capabilities and the continuous expansion of production capacity of domestic electronic specialty gas manufacturers, the localization rate of the industry will be further improved. Domestic electronic special gas products will gradually achieve import substitution, and the monopoly pattern of foreign capital in China is expected to be broken, and it is expected to achieve independent and controllable in the future. According to SEMI forecasts, by 2025, the size of China's electronic special gas market will increase from the current 20 billion to 32 billion, and CARG will reach 17%. The existing domestic special gas companies can not only enjoy the dividends of the rapid development of the industry as a whole, but also are expected to enjoy the benefits of market share improvement under domestic substitution, and have broad growth space.
3. How to lay out the special gas track?
Bosera Innovative Materials ETF (588010), helmed by Bosera fund manager Tang Yibing, closely tracks the SSE Innovation Board New Materials Index, and the leading companies related to special gases, Jinhong Gas and Huate Gas, are both constituents of the index, accounting for 3.08% and 1.27% respectively, and the market capitalization is 12.7 billion and 9.4 billion respectively (data source: iFinD, as of 2023.6.29).
The SSE Innovative Materials Index is mainly based on small and medium-sized market capitalization, with a median market value of only 7.6 billion yuan, with large development potential and market value growth space. Most of the index constituents belong to the "hidden champions" in the segmented fields, and the overall profitability is high, reflecting the good competitiveness of the index constituents. The main weighted stocks of the index are all leading enterprises engaged in the R&D and production of new materials in the fields of basic chemistry, chip semiconductors, and military industry, which play an important role in the fields of national defense industry, semiconductor, and new energy, and are of great strategic significance for promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and accelerating the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Chart: Market value distribution of SSE Innovative Materials Index
Source: iFinD, Bosera Fund; As of 2023/03/31
Fund manager Tang Yibing said that in the hard technology track, he is optimistic about sectors with relatively stable demand and low localization rate. For example, in the new materials sector, downstream demand is widely distributed in new industries, semiconductors and other new industries, and the demand growth rate is stable. At the same time, in key fields related to national security, such as semiconductor materials and superalloys, the current localization rate is low, and the future domestic substitution space is large, which brings investment opportunities to the special gas track.
"Specialized, specialized and new" hard technology! "New materials" with unlimited potential! The majority of investors can grasp the investment opportunities of special gases, the gold track in industrial gases, through index investment, pay attention to Bosera Innovative Materials ETF (588010), and sit on the era train of "independent innovation and domestic substitution" with one click!
Product risk level: medium and high (this rating is a manager rating, and the specific sales are subject to the rating of each agency agency).
Risk warning: The fund is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Funds are different from financial instruments with fixed income expectations such as bank deposits and bonds, and the risk-return situation of different types of funds is different, and investors may not only share the income generated by fund investment, but also bear the losses caused by fund investment. The fund manager undertakes to manage and use the fund assets in good faith, diligence and responsibility, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee returns, there is a risk of fluctuations in the net value of the fund, the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund, and the past performance of the fund does not indicate its future performance. Investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Summary" and other legal documents, and pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the company in a timely manner, the opinions of various sales agencies on suitability are not necessarily consistent, and the suitability matching opinions of the company do not indicate a substantive judgment or guarantee of the risks and returns of the fund. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract differ depending on the factors considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, make prudent decisions based on their own investment objectives, duration, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks, and should not accept sales behaviors and illegal publicity and promotion materials that do not meet the requirements of laws and regulations. The details of the funds mentioned in this material and the purchase channels can be found on the official website of the Manager - Bosera Fund - Fund Products.