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Recently, the news that Huawei was completely blocked by the US government shocked the world. On January 31, news broke that the U.S. government had stopped issuing licenses to Huawei to export products. This move not only put Huawei in trouble, but also had a profound impact on the global technology industry structure.
Looking back, the US government has already imposed a series of restrictions on Huawei, especially for the export of chips related to 5G technology. However, in the previous policy, there was still a certain openness to chip exports in non-5G fields. U.S. companies can supply these products to Huawei by applying to the government for export licenses. For example, the CPU used in Huawei's Mate 50 mobile phone released last year is Qualcomm's 4G chip. In addition, Huawei's tablet and PC products also rely on some key US devices and software, such as tablet PC processors usually from Qualcomm and Intel, and the Windows operating system and Office office software pre-installed before leaving the factory have also been approved by the US government.
However, the complete blockade of the United States has dealt an extremely huge blow to Huawei. The most affected are Huawei's consumer terminal products, including mobile phones, personal computers and tablets. After these products were directly hit, Huawei's other products, such as watches, headphones, bracelets and other Internet of Things products, were also difficult to develop smoothly. After all, Huawei has been working hard to build a closed-loop ecosystem of the Hongmeng operating system, and if there is a problem with key mobile phone products, the operation of the entire ecosystem will also be seriously affected. In addition to consumer terminal products, Huawei's involvement in areas also includes new energy vehicles and communication equipment, and some of the supplied parts in these fields are likely to come from the United States, so they will also be affected to varying degrees.
It is worth noting that when Huawei just announced that it will pay dividends of 1.61 yuan in 2022, the US government has once again increased its blocking action. The dividend plan came as a surprise to investors, especially in the current difficult environment, where yields exceeded most expectations. However, whether the further blocking measures of the US government will affect Huawei's future dividend policy has become a concern for many people. Perhaps, in the face of escalating blocking pressure, Huawei may need to keep more cash in case of emergency.
In the face of the comprehensive blockade of the United States, Huawei faces a major choice. There is speculation about whether Huawei will spin off and sell mobile phones, tablets and other businesses like its subsidiary Honor. However, I personally think that this is less likely. Huawei may adopt a similar approach to the previous May 16 restriction on the supply of 5G chips, purchasing large quantities of key components in advance to ensure the stability of the supply chain. Although it is unlikely that it will spin off the sales terminal products, Huawei may need to optimize personnel in 2023, which will directly affect employees who renew their contracts in 2023, and they may need to rethink their career plans at Huawei.
So why did the United States suddenly take such tough action? One analysis believes that this is an advance move in the game between China and the United States. At present, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is about to visit China, which is considered a key diplomatic move. The United States may want to create leverage for the formal negotiations that are about to begin by playing its cards early. The move could be aimed at pushing China to make concessions in a number of areas, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Hong Kong and Taiwan issues, trade openness and so-called "human rights issues." However, it remains to be seen whether this strategy will have the desired effect.
To sum up, the US government's comprehensive ban has become a fact, and Huawei is facing unprecedented challenges. Despite the difficulties, Huawei is expected to adopt a variety of strategies to resolve the crisis and stabilize the company's development. At the same time, the global technology industry will be further restructured by this incident, and the situation is unpredictable. In any case, Huawei's future direction and the development of Sino-US relations deserve global attention.
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