#财经新势力#
Whether it is a rumor of a layoff or a downsizing, it shows one thing: the domestic brokerage research institute is now having a hard time. The biggest reason for this is that the Institute's clients, fund companies, have suffered a sharp decline in income.
Text | Financial gossip female author: Deng Biluo Xiaowaist Zong
· · ·
Recently, a chat record brushed the screen, saying that a certain securities research institute, researcher insurance chief and newcomer, persuaded to quit the front line, Beijing sales cut, in addition to compliance quality control, other lines retain up to 2 people.
For a while, the financial circle fried the pot, and there were different opinions.
Some people also say that the institute has downsized far more than one, and some securities firms are even considering cutting the institute's business directly.
After this screenshot was circulated, East Asia Qianhai Securities also said that the rumors did not match the facts.
However, before May this year, East Asia Qianhai had to issue 40 or 50 research reports a month, a total of 8 research reports in June, 5 in July, and no new research reports have been published since July 13. His family's industry research business is temporarily at a standstill.
It seems that the situation in this track of the Brokerage Institute is a bit bad.
1.
/ Domestic Securities Research Institute,
At a dangerous juncture? /
Whether it is a rumor of a layoff or a downsizing, it shows one thing: the domestic brokerage research institute is now having a hard time.
The biggest reason for this is that the Institute's clients, fund companies, have suffered a sharp decline in income.
Between 2020-2021, A-shares went through a structural bull market. What does it mean, that is, the broader market has not risen much, but white horse stocks have gone a bull market.
On the one hand, domestic masks are properly controlled and foreign countries are in chaos, so foreign trade is strong, everyone makes money, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, liquor, pharmaceuticals and other fund heavy positions performance and stock prices have doubled. On the other hand, the three actions of "institutional huddle" stocks rising, fund performance growth, and basic people increasing positions and buying the base constitute a positive cycle, which brings a wave of boost.
In 2021, the funds have gone to the Fuxingmen subway station next to Financial Street to advertise, and the large-screen advertising in this area is definitely affordable after making a lot of money:
Now that I think about it, advertising has returned to the door of the peer financial circle, and the ceiling is not far away.
By last year, Davis, whose performance and stock price double-clicked, became double-killing. The price increase trend of liquor has come to an end, and it is gradually unable to sell; The price of chips, which has soared more than ten times, peaked and turned around; The stock price fell sharply under the pressure of pharmaceutical collection and procurement...
In the first two years, the funds made a lot of money, and the seller's commission also ate meat. For more than a year, although the funds have lost customers' money, the commission has earned less, and the brokerage research institute has followed, and only the soup is left to drink.
Recently, several events have become the last straw that overwhelmed the Fund and the Institute.
1) Public funds face significant fee reductions (rates).
On July 8, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it would officially launch the reform of public fund rates, and public offering products will be mainly fixed rates, while more floating rate products will be launched. From now on, the newly registered product rate and hosting fee shall not exceed 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. A number of leading public offerings, including E Fund, Huaxia, GF and Industrial Securities Global, subsequently issued announcements to adjust the management fee of their active equity funds to 1.2%/year, and the custody fee to 0.2%/year.
Among the top 20 public funds last year, management fees accounted for the majority of revenue:
As a result, the pressure of fund companies to reduce costs and increase efficiency has increased, and the income of the Securities Institute is also about to decline again.
2) The commission rate of securities transactions of public funds should be significantly reduced.
In fact, in the past five years, the trading commission rate of public funds in the whole market has dropped from 8.4 per 10,000 to 7.6 per 10,000, and the overall downward trend has continued, but this is not enough.
Some data predict that the current average commission rate in the market is about 10,000 to 10,000 2.5 levels, and if calculated according to the upper limit of the relevant requirement multiple, the commission rate of public offering transactions shall not exceed the level of 10,000 to 10,0005. Taking 2022 as an example, the average transaction commission rate of public funds in the whole market is 7.6 million, and it is expected that the public transaction commission of the whole market will decrease by more than 30%.
3) Since the beginning of this year, the fund circle has been reshuffled.
The whole fund circle broke out a wave of resignations, Galaxy Fund replaced a new general manager, and a number of executives and star fund managers left in the past 2 years. Star fund managers such as Cai Songsong of Sino Analytica, Bai Bingyang of BOC, Wang Yin of China Merchants, Wang Zonghe of Penghua, Wu Chuanyan of Hongde and so on.
Some people changed a public offering, some people switched to private placement, some people turned their heads into the Securities Research Institute, and some people simply went to the supervision, and in the future, peers can catch any action, and the play is a heartbeat.
In addition, licenses shrank significantly, and in January, the association cancelled 1,565 private equity fund managers. The liquidation of public funds has also accelerated, with 117 funds liquidated from January to May.
And this year's new fund issuance, whether public or private, has suffered the coldest period in nearly 8 years. There are even many funds that have been redeemed one after another, and the scale continues to shrink.
4) Not only is customer income reduced, commission rates are reduced, and compliance by securities research institutes is becoming stricter.
This year, the Brokerage Institute was fined enough.
From May to late June this year, more than a dozen brokerages and more than 30 analysts were fined.
After this, several securities research institutes have opened new job recruitment-quality control posts, responsible for quality control and review before the release of research reports, publicity and training on research report writing and quality control, and monitoring of new media channels.
2.
/ Crisis-ridden brokerage institute,
Once a symbol of the gold collar /
The Chinese stock market began in the 90s, but the Brokerage Institute emerged more than a decade later.
Before 1996, consulting in the stock market was mainly viewed by stock critics. After 1996, several large brokerages set up research institutes and began hiring industry researchers.
In 1999, Cathay and Junan merged, and the new company became an aircraft carrier among brokers, and the merged research institute became a large office with hundreds of people. At that time, many researchers already jumped to brokerages to do research after having experience in the industry. For example, Wu Chong, a researcher in commercial retail (now chairman of True Love Dream Fund), was originally the deputy general manager of Wanjia Department Store; Zhang Yu, who has repeatedly won the first place in the real estate industry, was originally a regional real estate development project leader at Vanke.
At that time, in addition to the internal use of the brokerage, the research report was made into a daily morning newspaper fax and sold to other business departments, and one received a sum of money.
Around 2000, Shenyin Wanguo, Huaxia Securities, Guotai Junan, Southern Securities, Haitong Securities and other large securities companies already had research institutes. Since then, the fund industry has developed greatly, and the Securities Institute has transformed into selling reports and services to fund companies, and the scale of income has increased significantly, which has since embarked on the road of expansion.
In 2003, New Fortune launched the "Best Analyst" selection for the first time in China.
Many medium-sized securities companies established research institutes around 2010, at this time, they often did not have time to cultivate little by little, but chose to recruit the boss from a mature research institute with high salaries to form and bring a large team as soon as they came.
"We were established at the end of 2009, when we hired Gbagbo as chief economist, and Mr. Gao came to build it and brought a number of teams." Yang Yang from Huax Securities said. "At that time, in order to allow the report written by the young researcher who had just entered the industry to be issued, he signed the name of Mr. Gao, but the result was misunderstood by the outside media, and he said that he was prolific, and he wrote so quickly every day, which was an unreliable analyst."
A few years later, Mr. Gao jumped and took away some of the team, but the overall framework of Hua X was built, and Babbo's proud protégé Hua Bo took over as the director, and in a few years Hua Bo was promoted all the way to the deputy general manager of the company. When he first started, there were several Bamen disciples in the institute, Niu Bo, the chief of the macro group, and Yang Bo of real estate, and they also had a good relationship. Later, there was also an incident, the chief of TMT, Ma Ge, was a straight boy, dissatisfied with a matter of Huabo sending points to the macro group, and publicly intimidated him, saying that it was unheard of for an intern to take hundreds of thousands (bonuses) for a group. After finishing the scolding, Ma Ge resigned and left, and later when the indecent dinner was held, he was already in Fangzheng. ”
Similarly, there are many people who started as researchers and went all the way to the top of the company, including Wei Tao, deputy general manager of West China Securities, Liu Yuanrui, president of Changjiang Securities, Zhao Xiaoguang, vice president of Tianfeng Securities, Cheng Fei, vice president of Guosen Securities, Ji Lu, vice president of Guojin Securities, and so on. Therefore, researchers not only earn a considerable income, but also stand higher and climb faster than the grassroots of the sales department.
After years of rapid development, the revenue of the Securities Institute has changed from millions to more than a dozen small targets per year, and researchers/analysts have also become representatives of high salaries and high education.
The first time she showed off the rich pit company on Xiaohongshu, the young lady was a macro researcher.
The annual income is 2.24 million, and the tax is paid 620,000 yuan, which is envious and jealous, which also kicks off the prelude to limiting the salary of brokers.
3.
/ Industry research scandals are frequent, and the involution is extreme,
Other business of brokerages is also not easy to do /
In recent years, although the industry has become an enviable gold collar, scandals have also been frequent.
First of all, it is the writing of research reports that have problems and are reported and criticized.
For example, in 2011, Galaxy Securities issued an article "Pangang Vanadium Titanium (000629): The Stock Price is Seriously Undervalued", saying that the stock price of Pangang Vanadium Titanium is seriously undervalued, and the minimum target price should reach 188 yuan. As a result, Pangang Vanadium Titanium came to a limit increase, and Galaxy Securities issued a statement on the same day, with a calculation error, corrected the data, and the target price was 56.12 yuan. So, I received the letter of concern.
And in 2016, Soochow Securities made a report: "Fucheng In-depth Report II: 3 10 billion support market value doubled". Frightened, Fucheng shares denied the three consecutive data, saying that several data in Soochow Securities were inflated, and as a result, the two analysts who wrote this report were punished.
Not to mention, before 2017, 40 brokerages released 277 LeTV research reports, most of which had words such as "storm", "miracle", "takeoff", "strong buying", etc.
There is a research report in the financial circle with a black word title for your reference:
Unexpectedly, the eight strands of text also have an explanatory version.
In addition to the research report indiscriminately, there is also the problem of too much action at the dinner.
For example, there was an indecent dinner incident in 2018, during the canvassing of New Wealth, Ma, who was then the assistant director of Founder Securities Research Institute and the chief of the TMT group, led his analyst Liao (female) to have a meal with fund managers and other people, and was photographed and videotaped when playing games and whispering.
As a result, the video was transmitted to the Internet, and the impact was relatively bad. In the end, Ma was disqualified as an analyst and could no longer enter funds or brokerage firms to do industry research.
Liao was originally also a relatively famous analyst, and once wore Hanfu to explain the research report live, although he was not punished after this incident, he still jumped to another place.
In the past two years, the Securities Institute has been on the news, and the theme has become "involution".
How many volumes are there? The entry threshold is up to heaven.
On the surface, in the external recruitment announcement, most securities research institutes only require a master's degree or above, CFA and other certificates are preferred.
In fact, as early as 2019, some securities companies divided the two finances and one trade into B file, and only 14 domestic universities entered A file, while investment banks, industry research and other multi-gold departments only need A file people.
The threshold has become higher, and in order to make the resume look good, many students desperately want to enter the Securities Institute for internship.
Under the pressure, the moth came. A graduate student surnamed Liu in Fudan pretended to be a brokerage analyst to trick many students into interning and write research reports for him.
An intern wrote millions of words of research reports in 10 months, and he couldn't rest during the Spring Festival, and he also worked overtime to write research reports.
Some deceived interns missed the school recruitment and missed the spring recruitment.
There are also interns who have been hired by a well-known company, but because of this questionable internship experience, the offer was eventually canceled.
This graduate student surnamed Liu has hurt many people, and after being exposed, Fudan University canceled his outstanding graduate qualification.
The interns of the institute fight, and the regular employees fight even more. Last year, there was a big melon, and the chief income of a securities firm gave a lecture to the employees:
You have to work crazy, crazy to do the pie, rush forward, and if you can't rush, you will voluntarily resign and change jobs.
Every day, the research report should be sent to the customer, and the customer should be bombarded until he vomits;
I send more than 10 moments a day, WeChat group QQ group forwarding is not mentioned, until WeChat limit the flow;
Fed up with the likes of XXX, I want to double what I lost in the past few years.
"Everyone has to evolve into a man-eating wolf" is even more fierce than those success masters, and they almost hang "unscrupulous" on the wall.
In fact, industry research used to be very pure.
In 2017, Mr. Liao, chief of the banking group of Tianfeng Securities, wrote a passionate history of struggle:
However, four years later, Mr. Liao was on the hot search again, but he was asking for salary from Tianfeng Securities, and he was also ruled by the court to lose the case, which was really miserable.
At that time, he had already jumped to China Merchants Securities as the chief bank, and demanded wages from his old employer, Tianfeng Securities, to recover a total of 2.078 million yuan in bonuses, but in the end, the Beijing Xicheng District Arbitration Commission rejected his arbitration request on the grounds that he had signed a waiver of his claim and there was no evidence of fraud or coercion at the time of signing.
At present, many researchers and institutional sales have transformed or even changed careers.
Like Li Daxiao, he has long made himself an Internet celebrity, Ba Mei has seen him several times, every time he shoots a video, he takes the equipment shelf by himself and starts shooting, without the help of an assistant photographer, the lonely figure is distressing.
Ren Zeping not to mention, originally in the circle of the institute is very famous, early joined the National Research Center, the assessment ranked high, Xia Hai in Guotai Junan as a director, general manager and macro chief, his "On the Last Battle against the Bear Market" shocked the whole market, shouting "5,000 points is not a dream" A year later, the market really reached 5,000 points. In 2017, when he was poached by Boss Xu to Evergrande, he took an annual salary of 15 million.
However, after he left Evergrande, he started self-media, posted public accounts, broadcast live on Douyin, shouted "fertility crisis", and said that he should pay a lot of money to have a baby. The recent chief who sold hair tonic was warned by the group owner in the WeChat group that he could not post advertisements, and he did not take an example.
Compared with the pride of "5,000 points" and an annual salary of "15 million", there is a kind of vicissitudes of being bullied by dogs in Pingyang.
In addition to being an Internet celebrity, some researchers went to fund companies and became fund managers, from Party B to Party A's father, but what the performance is, it is difficult to say.
For example, Jiang Chao, a well-known former chief economist in the industry, left Haitong Securities to join Zhongtai Asset Management in early 2021, and as a result, the first product he managed lost 19.24% in just 8 months, and it seems that the yield is not proportional to popularity.
At this stage, not only the institute is cut, but some other high-paying departments of securities firms are no longer making money, and they are also facing the same problem.
Not long ago, after Zhongtai Securities broke its own operating loss of 350 million yuan, it did not take long to fire four responsible persons, and rumors said that the department was going to be disbanded.
In response, Zhongtai Securities responded that the company "adheres to performance-oriented and problem-oriented", adjusted some personnel of the securities investment department under the proprietary business line, and will begin to introduce a professional team in the future to undertake the work of the proprietary line.
Zhongtai Securities also said in the past two years that it intends to make efforts in the investment banking business, and the number of investment banking personnel has been expanded from 679 to 1,047, but the strongest investment banking business is three Zhongyihua, Haitong, Guotai Junan and other securities companies, Zhongtai can not even enter the top ten.
As a result, last year, the net income of Zhongtai Securities' securities underwriting business was only 1.018 billion yuan, including personnel costs, rent, and back office, this business is still a loss, so this year there was news that "all employees in investment banking business canceled the year-end bonus". But Zhongtai said it did not cancel, but adjusted the distribution method.
The head brokerage eats meat, the performance of small and medium-sized brokerages is getting worse and worse, and the business module is constantly shrinking... In this context, how many research institutes will be left for brokerages in the future?
Resources
"How Brokerage Research Transformed into a Commission-Sharing Model" Li Xunlei
"Interns pretend to be analysts to recruit interns to write research reports, and their identities are exposed in chance encounters" China News Network
"4 fund companies compete for the financial street subway station, the "inner roll" of advertising is beyond imagination? China Times
"It's so inspiring, brokerage analyst promoted to vice president!" How many steps are required? Securities Times
"The financial circle is bursting again! Fixed income chief: crazy work, crazy pie points, research report bombing to blow customers up, everyone must evolve into a wolf..."China Fund News