This week is the end of the policy, I believe many people will not have opinions, after all, from the weekend, all kinds of policy documents crackled out, there is no time to study.
After the end of the policy, from the historical situation, the stock market will rebound from half a month to 1 month, such as the end of 2008, the end of 2012, the end of 2018, the end of April 2022, and the end of October 2022, but the policy is only a temporary chicken blood, and it takes time to restore confidence, so the stock market will still fall.
In addition, at this time, because the market funds are adjusted according to the policy for shares, the strongest sector in the previous half a year made up for the decline, and this year's words are artificial intelligence AI, so the fund with artificial intelligence in hand does not need to be too anxious to cover positions.
At present, the market is just out of the news, waiting for the first wave of rebound, that is, artificial intelligence has not yet fallen into place. And sectors related to the economy, there will be opportunities, such as consumption, automobiles, home appliances, non-ferrous metals, etc.
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Tomorrow, the largest A-share IPO since this year, Huahong, is coming, which is another blood draw for the market, so the market can only wait for the end of the new stock issuance.
In addition, the half-year report of the fund has come out one after another, the largest increase in funds is communications, electronics, automobiles, the industry of capital reduction, the food and beverage consumption industry is in the dust, the possibility of increasing positions may continue to increase positions, the reduction is basically like this, mainly in the first half of the year is the stock game market, left hand to right hand, if there are new funds in the second half of the year, the effect of blood drawing will be weakened.
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Analyze the second quarterly report of the 4 active funds held in my real portfolio, because the market in the first half of the year is really difficult to do, I will not be too demanding on fund managers, the focus is still on the idea.
1. New impetus for rich countries
The fund manager said:
The Fund insists on a balanced allocation that deviates appropriately, but it also needs to actively optimize and adjust on the basis of equilibrium at present. In the current position, based on industry comparison, we have allocated a higher pharmaceutical position, believing that the sector has greater opportunities, the overall valuation is not high, the policy risk is released, and the prosperity may gradually recover.
The young lady said:
Manager Yu Yang was a fund manager in the pharmaceutical industry before, so his understanding of medicine will still be deeper than the average person, he overallocated medicine in the second quarter, indeed medicine fell too hard, but from the net worth results, other fund managers in the fall when the rich country new momentum to bear, other funds fell when it could not fall, it began to fall, I was a little speechless.
But from a rational point of view, I myself am also optimistic about medicine, and I can only say that the market always likes to hit me in the face.
2. ICBC's innovation power
The fund manager said:
During the period, the portfolio position remained at a slightly higher level than the benchmark, and the net value performance was ahead of the benchmark, mainly from the portfolio allocation, construction media and other industries continued to achieve certain excess returns. At the operational level, the direction of overweight includes chemical, steel and other more cyclical fields, based on judging that there are reasonable opportunities for long-term profitability in related industries; Reduced holdings in TMT, financials, partly based on cost-effectiveness considerations and moderate control of potential risks. Looking back, the research and judgment of individual stocks in the communications and auto parts industries still need to be improved.
Portfolio investment continues to be based on the individual stock level: on the one hand, maintain continuous attention to enterprises that have the ability to obtain sustained and stable cash flow, and hold on a reasonable price basis; On the other hand, it continues to look for quality companies that can provide products or services that meet the changing needs of the market.
The young lady said:
ICBC is a fund that I have praised many times, and it is indeed quite stable, but the scale has also doubled in the second quarter, and there are still many people found by good funds. The second quarter was mainly because of the purchase of construction media, and then because the valuation was too expensive, it reduced its position, and bought chemicals and steel, which is optimistic about the recovery of the economy.
Yang Xinxin I am still quite optimistic, focusing on the change of scale, other aspects whether it is stock selection or the grasp of valuation, are quite powerful, not the kind of hard value fund manager, the overall operation is more flexible, the position is very scattered, the top ten only account for 30%, so the volatility control ability is also good, continue to hold.
3. E Fund Mövenpick
The fund manager said:
The Fund maintained a high position during the reporting period, with little change in individual stocks and sectors compared to the previous period. With the passage of time, some consumer industries, led by airlines, have significantly changed their supply patterns, demand has benefited from the post-epidemic recovery, and the fundamentals will continue to repair in the future, which is still the most optimistic definitive investment opportunity in our medium-term dimension. Automotive intelligence and autonomous driving are expected to usher in an inflection point in the growth of the industry, replicating the investment opportunities brought about by the rapid increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles three years ago, which is also a growth area that we are more optimistic about.
The cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology in the field of science and technology may be a revolutionary change from 0 to 1, changing many business models and competitive patterns in the TMT field in the past from the bottom, and also bringing new business opportunities; But at this stage, for many specific targets, it is difficult to assess whether the long-term impact is good or bad, whether it is creation or subversion; Even individual sub-sectors that benefit with certainty will struggle to derive a good expected rate of return from it, given their current valuations and future competitive landscape. However, we will continue to track and study the most cutting-edge technological changes and application implementation, so as to increase investment in this field when definitive investment opportunities arise.
For industries with good long-term growth, such as Internet and cloud computing, semiconductors, new energy, new consumption, medical devices and services, etc., we will continue to track the fundamentals of individual stocks and maintain allocation after rational judgment. In the future, the Fund will continue to focus on growth industries such as technology, high-end manufacturing, mass consumption and medical and health as the main allocation direction, while continuously strengthening the selection of individual stocks and the efficiency of capital use.
The young lady said:
Fund managers chatted about each industry, and finally chose the most certain tourism and aviation industries, although this year's travel is indeed very hot, but haven't you considered that these industries have not fallen much in the past three years, and the valuation is quite expensive now? I don't understand a little, so I don't dare to allocate too much in terms of positions.
I found that the fund managers of E Fund are all high positions concentrated in one or two sectors, a bit of gambling nature, but some people say that this is value investment, I am a little confused, for things that cannot be distinguished, I will be cautious.
4. Dacheng is cutting-edge
The fund manager said:
With the change in the pace of economic recovery, the market style has undergone a major change in the second quarter, and the net value of the Fund has also fluctuated, and it is hoped to resist external shocks by improving the depth of the company's fundamental research in the future.
The young lady said:
Dacheng really fell a little much in the first quarter, and the fund manager of Han Chuang said a few words, and said that it was an external shock, not his problem. I'm a little disappointed, I've already reduced my positions before, and the cyclical sector may benefit from the economic recovery in the second half of the year, so I left it a little bit.