laitimes

Hollywood's "doomsday" is coming

author:Emotional life, firewood, rice, oil and salt

On July 13, 2023, with the failure of labor negotiations between SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild and United Radio and Television Artists) and Hollywood studios, an "Avengers" of actors and screenwriters was officially formed.

Actors and screenwriters are fighting not only for salaries that are difficult to fight inflation, but also for the producer's well-known "weapon" - artificial intelligence, fearing that the rapid development of AI may take away most of the jobs of film and television workers.

Hollywood's "doomsday" is coming

(Source: Global Network)

This is not only Hollywood's first industry-wide strike in 63 years, but also considered the first collective action of mankind to resist the threat of artificial intelligence.

Hollywood director Nolan's newly released new film "Oppenheimer" is being promoted, and several major stars only showed their faces at the premiere and left the scene to participate in the strike. Dedicated actors also understand the particularity of the position, and can promote the new film for the management while "throwing face" to the producer.

If the collective strike of writers in the previous two months seemed thunderous and rainy, now that actors are on the same side as them, the capital needs to weigh the serious consequences of the overturning of the bargaining table - the stagnation of the hundreds of billions of dollars in the entertainment industry.

This is an event that even the US government does not dare to take lightly.

The whole world is watching.

01What are entertainers worried about?

Early on the morning of the 13th, many Hollywood actors and screenwriters rallied outside Netflix, Paramount, Warner Bros. and Disney Company headquarters to protest.

The result was the expiration of a previous three-year contract and the breakdown of negotiations between the Screen Actors Guild-United Television and Radio Artists and the Union of Film and Television Producers representing employers such as Disney, Netflix, Amazon, and others.

This is the first time in more than 60 years in the United States that the two major labor unions in Hollywood have gone on strike at the same time.

But this is not the first time that AI has made film and television practitioners protest.

On May 2, the Writers Guild of America began a strike. The screenwriting echelon also has a significant head effect, and most screenwriters are not paid satisfactorily.

In addition to fighting for better remuneration from filmmakers, screenwriters are fighting for their own interests or will be deprived of the longer term, and artificial intelligence is at the heart of this maelstrom.

Hollywood's "doomsday" is coming

Now or in the near future, AI can easily copy the writing style of excellent screenwriters, borrow the fruits of knowledge and labor to re-productize, the cost will only be lower, and the efficiency will only be higher. For screenwriters below the middle and low levels, their unit labor value will undoubtedly be suppressed to the extreme.

To put it bluntly, the head effect of this industry will become more and more serious, which will lead to a serious brain drain.

In order to "reverse the future", the writers are determined to strangle the AI "Thanos" in the cradle.

However, the film side is not a rich two fools, a mature AI tool is much more "obedient" than the screenwriter and actor, and can almost give and give.

A screenwriting formula, as long as the audience loves to watch, according to the logic of capital, it should be copied in large quantities until it gets tired.

The screenwriter also has some personal artistic pursuits, and if he does not want to be squeezed, the interests of the two sides will no longer converge.

How much grudge do actors have against AI?

The American Federation of Television and Radio Artists represents more than 160,000 people, including screen actors, broadcast journalists, announcers, presenters, and stuntmen. AI virtual humans are in the ascendant, but non-interactive CG avatars are already common in Hollywood movies.

Nowadays, most of the avatars can achieve the effect of fake reality, such as AI changing faces. Although the effect is vivid, developing and using it without my authorization is a desecration of portrait rights, and I have not benefited from it. Simple technical operations may pose a huge threat to the tens of millions of income of entertainers.

Stars with box office appeal, such as Leonardo DiCaprio, can add a lot of revenue to the box office even if they only need to show their faces in the movie for a few seconds. How can the innate resource endowment and the reputation accumulated by decades of acting career allow the producer to copy and use it at low cost.

It can be seen from the requirements put forward by the union that actors, as the pillar supporting the entire film and television entertainment industry, cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence technology, and should continue to maintain the authenticity of the performance in the picture.

If this strike drags on longer and longer, it will inevitably affect the pillar industries of the United States.

Many film and television productions have been halted, affecting the livelihoods of photographers, set designers, production assistants and other staff on set. In addition, revenues from restaurants, hotels and dry cleaners, which rely on the film and television industry, may also decline as a result.

According to reports, the strike may bring the $134 billion US film and television industry to a standstill.

But the producers still want to get the actors and writers back to the negotiating table.

02 "Black Mirror" moment

AI revolution has taken place, trends are inevitable, and the film and television industry is undergoing disruption much faster than many industries.

Today, AI has been deeply integrated with the process of film script creation, post-production, publicity and reaching the audience.

Streaming giant Netflix was the first film and television technology company to apply artificial intelligence algorithms to its business. Algorithms collect and analyze data to try to predict audience preferences to provide personalized viewing recommendations.

It is estimated that the Netflix recommendation algorithm alone is worth about $1 billion a year.

Film investment is often a bet on the box office, and high-budget films often have no shortage of "rollover" records. In order to reduce risk, producers have gradually developed a data-driven production mindset.

Now, the movies that are watched the most on streaming platforms are often carefully designed with enough data to prove that users will enjoy watching movies.

For example, if the design of certain plot bridges is statistically proven to be not attractive enough to the audience, then the audience will stop watching, and trying to violate the creative behavior of the user portrait may lead to a decrease in the stickiness of the platform's consumption.

Based on this, including the creative side, it has also been covered in a data-driven flywheel.

On the other hand, producers also want to reduce production costs in an automated way. In short, it would be great if you could continue to cut the door on actor expenses, which are the biggest costs.

This is exactly what the actors desperately do not want, similar to the demands of the screenwriters.

Embracing technological change, even if the future is only to authorize portrait rights and voices, is equivalent to opening a hole for the investor in yourself, allowing the blood to lick, and the actor's performance value will be compressed with the development of technology.

At that time, the producer only needs the "correct" face, voice and script to produce a blockbuster movie that meets the needs of users at low cost.

Hollywood's "doomsday" is coming

(Source: Netflix)

In the first episode of the latest season of Black Mirror, actress Joan discovers that a broadcasting network is recreating her life through actress Salma Hayek, who sells her digital images to AI software. The episode reveals the actors' concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence, the use of Deep fake technology, and the impact on their careers.

Deep fake is an artificial intelligence technology that can create or process images, video, and audio that look and sound realistic but are not real. In the 2019 Netflix-funded production of "The Irishman", Robert · De Niro looks like a middle-aged man; and Paul Walker, who resurrected the deceased in "Fast and Furious 7", both using artificial intelligence technology.

Hollywood's "doomsday" is coming

(Source: The Irishman movie)

But if Deep fake goes from being "resurrected" to being used as a creative tool, the fun of artistic creation is significantly reduced. Even if the cost savings are real, if the actor participates in film and television production in an unreal way in the future, consumers may not be willing to buy it.

Even if the technology is good, it needs to be considered whether the audience can accept it. If authenticity and the emotional value conveyed through the actors' performances are denied, the studio will be shooting itself in the foot.

03The whole world is watching

The book "Technological Revolution and Financial Capital" also mentioned that important technological development can often trigger great changes in the economy and society, but at the beginning, the whole society is not perfectly adapted to the wave of technology, and the decline of some industries and the flow of people will also bring painful costs to economic transformation.

The role of the system is to balance the friction between the two. After being deeply aware of the rapid progress of AI technology and the serious consequences that its improper use can bring, the world is currently accelerating AI regulation.

For example, the Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services jointly issued by the Cyberspace Administration of China and other seven departments this week implements inclusive and prudent and categorical supervision of generative AI services, and clarifies the overall requirements for the provision and use of generative AI services. It also mentions the requirement to respect the legality of data sources and personal information, and not to infringe on the legitimate rights and interests of others.

Previously, many social celebrities in the West have been plagued by AI face changing technology. Because they can be falsified, important public figures can be used to spread false information and influence public opinion, and even invade the privacy and dignity of others.

The strike is a direct collision of practitioners and a wave of technology. It is not known whether the United States is also trying to avoid a recession, and it happens that this will cost the economy in the end, but the longer it drags on, the livelihoods of more than two million people, most of whom are still very small, may be threatened.

Although in the end the investor may still return to the negotiating table and quickly reach an agreement to continue making the film, the gap caused by the application of AI technology is no longer avoidable.

How to rely on the system to solve the contradiction between artificial intelligence and the career development of film and television practitioners, and what kind of consensus will be formed, will provide some ideas for other industries that will be affected by AI.