Deadly heat, torrential rains and fires have left rice, tomatoes, tourism and retail hanging over
This summer, heat in the northern hemisphere has put millions of lives at risk. Photo by "Caijing" reporter Jin Yan
Jin Yan, a special correspondent for Caijing, came from Washington
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The northeastern United States was hit by torrential rain on July 9, local time, and flooding occurred in many places. Parts of the Lower Hudson Valley in New York State receive as much precipitation in one day as in three months in the summer of previous years. The National Weather Service issued the highest level of flood warning for parts of Vermont, and Vermont's governor declared a state of emergency in the state.
Heat waves continued to hit parts of the United States. Maximum temperatures in parts of southwestern Arizona exceeded 43 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days. The National Weather Service said on the 12th that more than 111 million people in the United States are under the extreme heat warning. The peak temperature may occur from the 14th to the 17th, when the high temperature record in many places in the United States may be broken.
US media reported that overheated weather causes $100 billion in losses to the US economy every year. As the largest federal legislation ever enacted to address climate change in the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) plans to invest $369 billion in energy security and climate change-related provisions. Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of Climate Alpha, told Caijing that he hopes IRA funds and other resources will be used to help society tackle climate change more effectively. Believe in humanity's ability to adapt to climate-related natural disasters. As climate change accelerates, the countries and regions that adapt the fastest and the slowest will be winners and losers, respectively. Lead investors, businesses, and homeowners to where they should be relocating to make them more resilient to climate change.
Seppy, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, believes the Earth has never been hotter for "at least 125,000 years". At least this year, this long and difficult summer has been filled with deadly heat, months of raging fires and torrential rains and floods, and since at least June, small countries from Haiti to South Asia have faced summer trials of extreme weather.
Extreme heat continues throughout Japan, including Tokyo, and torrential rain in northern Kyushu. At the same time, mudslides and landslides caused by flooding in Fukuoka and Oita prefectures in Kyushu have been severely affected, and Japanese media have reported that since July 9, record-breaking heavy rains, mainly concentrated in the Kyushu region, have caused 13 landslide disasters so far. Mudslides washed away homes, leaving many homeless. According to statistics, three days of rainfall caused 18 rivers in Fukuoka, Saga and Oita prefectures to burst their banks, causing flooding.
Summer in Canada is a fire, which can burn for months. Today, 9 million hectares of land have disappeared in smog, an area 11 times the average of the past 10 years. Canada's absolute annual record in 1989 has been far exceeded. In one day alone, there were 677 fires across Canada, 386 of which went unchecked. Some 155,000 people have been forced to leave their homes because of fires since the beginning of May, the highest number in 40 years. Small-scale wildfires have occurred in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and parts of France.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, which will lead to higher temperatures in many parts of the world. Recently, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue high temperature orange warnings, and the local temperature in many provinces in China reached more than 40 °C. Spain's Canary Islands, Italy, Cyprus and Greece have all issued hot weather warnings, and southern Italy and the Balkans are expected to see Europe's highest temperatures in the next ten days. The deadly heat wave in parts of Italy in the week of July 13 is expected to soar to 45 degrees Celsius, or break the European heat record. As the global heatwave spread, July saw the 10 hottest days on record.
A study in Science showed that the 1997-1998 El Niño caused $5.7 trillion in lost global revenue, and the 1982-1983 El Niño caused $4.1 trillion in losses. Years after the end of these weather patterns, their negative effects are still being felt in countries.
Even the Southern Hemisphere, which is in the midst of winter, has set some high temperature records. On July 6, the average temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was 12.62 degrees Celsius, warmer than July 6 of any year since records began in 1979 and 1.05 degrees Celsius above the average anomaly, while the average temperature in Antarctica was 3.70 degrees Celsius above the average anomaly. In Malawi, southeastern Africa, floods and mudslides triggered by tropical cyclones killed more than 1,000 people and displaced 660,000. Uruguay in South America is experiencing its worst drought in 44 years.
Extreme heat highlights the dangers of rising carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The week of July 3-9 was the hottest week on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization. As El Niño develops further, more extreme hot weather is likely in the future. The organization quoted reanalysis data from the Japan Meteorological Agency as saying that the global average temperature on the 7th of this month was 17.24 degrees Celsius, the hottest day on record, breaking the record on August 16, 2016, when the global average temperature was 16.94 degrees Celsius.
Oceans, which cover 71% of the Earth's surface, are also warming dramatically. There are reports that the average temperature of the global ocean has been in an anomaly of its highest on record since April, breaking through 21 degrees Celsius for the first time. Global sea surface temperatures hit record highs in May and June, respectively, and Antarctic sea ice in June reached a record low since satellite observations began. According to the definition and classification of marine heatwaves by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "extreme" marine heatwaves have formed, and even the highest level in parts of the North Atlantic - "super extreme" has been reached. According to a report released by the agency, 40% of Earth's oceans experienced marine heatwaves in June, and by September the heatwave will expand to 50% of the oceans.
In addition, a previous report by the World Meteorological Organization showed that June this year was the hottest June on record, breaking the record of June 2019; For the first time in seven years, conditions for El Niño have emerged in the tropical Pacific, which could lead to soaring global temperatures and the emergence of disruptive weather and weather patterns. El Niño is expected to further exacerbate land and ocean heat waves and lead to more extreme land and ocean temperatures, which are expected to continue until 2024. The latest international climate change study warns that by 2030, there may be no more sea ice floating in the Arctic summer.
As global temperatures and sea levels rise, more heat waves, droughts, floods, hurricanes and wildfires are created. Human-induced climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent or more intense. According to the White House report, extreme weather events and conflict are two major contributors to forced displacement worldwide, causing the forced displacement of nearly 30 million people each year. UN climate change expert Ian Fry said 30.7 million people worldwide were displaced by weather-related events in 2020 alone.
According to a study published in the journal Nature Medicine, extreme heat last year killed nearly 63,000 people in Europe.
Extreme heat and the resulting weather disasters can have a significant negative impact on the economic growth of many countries. Compared to other industries, agriculture is more directly affected by hot weather. Due to the arid climate, this year's harvest in Germany will be significantly lower than previously expected and long-term averages. The German Farmers' Association expects grain production of 40.9 million mt this year, which is well below the average for 2018-2022 (42.2 million mt) and 6% below the previous year's output (43.6 million mt).
Affected by extreme high temperatures, many countries have insufficient energy supply problems such as electricity and water resources. Photo by "Caijing" reporter Jin Yan
Drought not only leads to reduced food production, but also large fluctuations in food prices, which can trigger market imbalances, disrupt domestic and international trade activities, affect food availability, and thus exacerbate the global hunger plight. On July 13, local time, Bloomberg reported that India, the world's largest rice exporter, is considering banning the export of most rice varieties. As of July 7, India received 8% less rainfall than usual, and summer rice planting area fell 26% year-on-year, according to Indian government data. The tomato harvest has failed, and prices have soared by more than 400% during the year. If implemented, the rice ban would affect about 80% of India's rice exports, potentially leading to further increases in global rice prices. Asian benchmark rice prices have surged to two-year highs amid fears of a continued El Niño phenomenon.
Reuters reported that by 2050, extreme heat in India could eventually reduce "outdoor working capacity" by 15 percent, reducing the quality of life for up to 480 million people and losing 2.8 percent of GDP. The ILO predicts that extreme heat will reduce global working hours by more than 2% by 2030, equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs and $2.4 trillion lost.
Many industries will be greatly affected by extreme weather this summer. In 2021, research in the scientific journal Atmosphere showed that El Niño events resulted in tax reductions in the number of visits and travel intentions of 48 natural attractions in the United States. Most retail sectors, such as clothing and seasonal goods, will also be hit. Retailers and brand representatives must anticipate not only what consumers want, but also what nature will do for them.