Lithuania and Poland are the two most active NATO countries in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so Wagner's garrison in Belarus is to point at these two countries, of which Lithuania is the weakest, but its behavior is more arrogant, and it is likely to become Wagner's first target.
As recently as July 11, Wagner boss Prigogin said that Lithuania would be one of Wagner's targets. As soon as this remark came out, Lithuania was very nervous, and NATO nerves were also tense, and it was very afraid that Wagner would suddenly attack Lithuania. With more than 40,000 experienced Wagners, it seems that it is not a difficult thing to defeat in a short time the Lithuanian army, which has only 20 thousand people and has no combat experience.
Wagner attacked Lithuania, so will NATO send troops to help Lithuania? According to the content of Article V of NATO, any country attacking one of NATO's countries will trigger NATO's collective defense mechanism, and NATO is obliged to send troops. So if Wagner attacks Lithuania, will NATO send troops to fight Wagner?
It is impossible to send troops from a procedural point of view, because Wagner is not a country, but is called a terrorist organization by NATO, so Wagner's attack on Lithuania will not touch the content of NATO's fifth article, but this does not mean that NATO will watch Lithuania being beaten. NATO will definitely be like on the battlefield in Ukraine, in the name of mercenaries, change their military uniforms, and you can fight with Wagner.
With NATO's military strength, this group of mercenaries is far stronger than Wagner in terms of weapons and equipment, both in performance and quantity, and will also receive absolutely superior air force, intelligence and other support. And NATO can also continue to increase troops. Obviously, Wagner, who is only 40,000 people, no matter how strong his combat experience and combat literacy are, he is no match for NATO mercenaries. Prigogin was clearly aware of this, so Wagner must acquire a weapon to deter NATO before attacking Lithuania or NATO countries in Eastern Europe.
Such weapons are tactical nuclear weapons, so did Wagner acquire tactical nuclear weapons? Although there is no evidence that Wagner has obtained tactical nuclear weapons, there are several points that can be guessed that Wagner is very likely to obtain tactical nuclear weapons, one of which is based on the appeal, Wagner's current strength is far from NATO's opponent, but Wagner wants to harden NATO, indicating that Wagner has something in NATO's hands that NATO is very afraid of, that is, tactical nuclear weapons.
There are also two points, one is that on the day of the mutiny, when a 5,000-strong vanguard force approached Moscow, a detachment suddenly left the large force and went to Russia's "Voronesh-45" nuclear base.
Second, Putin announced that he would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in July, and at this time 40,000 Wagner troops entered Belarus and was responsible for assisting the Belarusian army in protecting these tactical nuclear weapons.
From the above analysis, the possibility of Wagner obtaining tactical nuclear weapons is very large, so Wagner dares to harden NATO, otherwise Wagner has only a dead end against NATO without Russia's protection. Once Wagner attacks Lithuania and NATO mercenaries dare to enter Belarus and deliver a devastating blow to Wagner, Wagner will launch tactical nuclear weapons, so will NATO really dare to shoot tactical nuclear weapons at each other with Wagner?
Wagner bet that NATO would not dare to fight a nuclear war with a mercenary company, so even if Wagner's attack on Lithuania failed, Wagner could still retreat to Belarus and preserve most of its strength, which may be Wagner's biggest card against NATO