Electronic enthusiast network report (text / Huang Shanming) In many science fiction movies, humanoid robots in the family have always existed as housekeepers, handling family chores for users, not only as housekeepers at home, but also as home assistants, security guards, technology playmates and other roles, greatly saving users' time.
At the recent 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Musk publicly stated that there will be a large number of robots in the future, and in the long run, the ratio of robots to humans will exceed 1:1 at some point, and the number of robots will exceed humans, at which time, human beings will enter a very rich era.
AI empowerment, the humanoid robot industry accelerates
The development history of humanoid robots can be traced back to the late 60s of the 20th century. During this period, research institutions and universities in Japan began to conduct research and development on the design and control of humanoid robots. Among them, Professor Ichiro Kato of Waseda University is considered one of the pioneers in the field of humanoid robots.
Under his leadership, Waseda University's Humanoid Robotics Laboratory developed the world's first truly humanoid robot, WABOT-1. The robot has a human-like size and shape and is equipped with a limb control system, a vision system, and a dialogue system. It can perform simple actions and conversations such as shaking hands, walking, jumping, singing, etc.
In the decades that followed, the technology and design of humanoid robots continued to evolve and improve. Among them, Japan's Honda is one of the leaders in the field of humanoid robots.
Honda began research on the humanoid robot ASIMO in 1986 and released the first generation in 2000. The robot has a human-like form factor and is capable of simple walking, running, jumping, and gestures.
With the continuous development of technology, the function and performance of humanoid robots have also been continuously improved. For example, Honda introduced All-New ASIMO in 2011, a robot with a higher level of action and judgment, avoiding obstacles, recognizing voice commands, communicating gestures, and more.
In addition to Japanese research institutions and companies, the United States and other countries have also conducted extensive research and development in the field of humanoid robots. For example, Boston Dynamics in the United States released the bipedal robot Atlas in 2016, which has a higher level of dynamic movement and balance ability, and can perform difficult actions such as jumping, climbing, and balance control.
In recent years, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus has aroused widespread attention from society, industry and market, and with the maturity of intelligent voice interaction and the rapid development of generative AI such as ChatGPT, it will significantly improve the intelligence level of robots.
Musk believes that in a future with a large number of robots, global production efficiency will increase to incredible levels, and humanoid robots can do dangerous, repetitive, boring labor that humans are not willing to do. Such as housework, demining, high-altitude maintenance, underground exploration, etc.
In contrast, humanoid robots have also become the best carrier of AI. AI large models empower the humanoid robot industry in language, vision, motion control, and reducing R&D costs. But in doing so, AI needs to be allowed to be as conscious and intelligent as humans.
Musk believes that this will require increased regulation of superintelligence, which is more powerful than humans and therefore carries risks and concerns. But 2018 Turing Award winner Yang Likun has a different opinion on this, can not be afraid of the results of artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence is strictly regulated, open source is the core means of artificial intelligence governance, if the technology is only controlled by a few companies, this is not a good thing.
The market potential is huge, or become the future of smart homes
From the perspective of the market, robots have begun to be widely used in all walks of life, but most of them are not humanoid robots, but such as robotic arms, sweeping robots and other forms. According to Markets and markets, the global humanoid robot market will increase from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion (about RMB125.5 billion) in 2027, and the market size of more than 100 billion is just around the corner.
Such a large market prospect has also attracted many players to enter. Not only Tesla, but also Boston Dynamics, Honda, Engineered Arts, 1X Technologies and other overseas companies, domestic companies such as UBTECH, Cloudminds Robot, Xiaomi, Fourier Intelligence, Chunmi Technology are all aiming at the humanoid robot track.
For the smart home field, humanoid robots can provide users with personalized services and suggestions according to user needs and preferences; Connect and collaborate with smart home devices and platforms, such as smart lights, air conditioners, curtains, TVs, stereos, refrigerators, washing machines, sweeping robots, etc.; It can also accompany users in entertainment, learning, fitness, etc., and enhance the richness of users' lives.
Especially in today's increasingly serious aging in China, the use of humanoid robots to assist the elderly will become a development direction with great potential. Of course, the current humanoid robot price is high, such as Boston Dynamics' Atlas is worth $2 million, Honda Asimo's single unit is worth $2.5 million, and Xiaomi CyberOne costs as much as 600,000-700,000 yuan, which is basically difficult for ordinary people to afford.
But Musk has publicly stated that in the future, Tesla Optimus will be sold for less than $20,000 and achieve mass production, and it is expected to produce 10 billion units in the future. The price of $20,000 is enough for ordinary families to accept.
Even if there is only Optimus in the market, and the sales volume is only one percent of Musk's 10 billion units, then the market size will exceed $2 trillion, and if Musk's vision can be realized, then the market size will exceed $200 trillion, which is extremely large.
Compared with the car, which is an important means of transportation in a family, the future humanoid robot is expected to become an important product necessary in the family. Even with the development of AIoT, large language models, AGVs, navigation and other technologies, home service humanoid robots are expected to become a physical and integrated smart home entrance.
Just like in the 90s, it was difficult for most ordinary users to own a "big brother", which was not only expensive, but also inconvenient to use. But in just 30 years, almost everyone has a smartphone, and the development of humanoid robots may be beyond imagination.
Of course, at present, the development degree and functional integrity of humanoid robots are not complete, and there is a lack of rich rigid application scenarios that can be completely replaced.
Due to the incomplete development of performance and low level of intelligence, many working humanoid robots still lack complete replacement benefits, such as the humanoid robot in the family service sector does not yet have the ability to completely replace the function of existing daily necessities, the humanoid robot in the field of commercial guide reception cannot answer all the questions raised by customers, and the field of search and rescue lacks the investigation and application of field search and rescue scenarios and experience, and the acceptance and demand of ordinary users, general enterprises and the market are low. Therefore, humanoid robots are currently used in the field of service in scientific research and education or commercial exhibitions, displays and other scenarios.
But it is certain that in the future, with the popularity of humanoid robots, the product will also become another important hub after smart speakers and intelligent central control screens in the whole house intelligent scene, and then become an important bridge for communication between people and things.
Write at the end
With the rapid development of AI, IoT, large language models and other technologies, the pace of development of humanoid robots has been greatly promoted. The home will also become an important landing scene for humanoid robots, helping users save a lot of trivial time, and can solve the nursing problems of the aging population in the future and many people with mobility disabilities who need to be taken care of.
Especially when humanoid robots are combined with AI large models, embodied intelligence will be bred. The so-called embodied intelligence is to combine intelligent algorithms with the robot's ability to perceive, act and interact with the environment, so that the robot can interact with the surrounding environment and complete various tasks in a more natural and intelligent way.
As Huang predicted in a speech this year, the next wave of artificial intelligence is embodied intelligence, and humanoid robots are the outward manifestation of embodied intelligence.