The second half of the market has kicked off, the A-share market has achieved a good start, Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have risen sharply, driving the popularity of the entire market, the second half of the market is expected to be significantly better than the first half of the year, the money-making effect may appear a significant recovery, in the first half of the year many investors feel not profitable, because the first half of the rise is mainly relying on artificial intelligence and the Chinese head sector, but many investors have not allocated before, so in the first half of this year, although the index rose slightly, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3200 points, But many investors feel like they're not making money. In the second half of the year, I think there may be a switch in market style, and good companies with good performance may regain the attention of funds, which will bring about a money-making effect.
I think the current market is in a stage where the triple inflection point is superimposed. The first inflection point is the inflection point of economic growth, economic growth in the first half of today's show a weak recovery trend, a series of policies to stabilize economic growth may be gradually introduced in July, enhance the strength of economic recovery, now is an inflection point of economic growth. The second inflection point is the inflection point of the market, that is, the rise of the market in the first half of the year mainly depends on the rise of the two major sectors. If you exclude the contribution of AI and the Chinese head sector, many stocks in the first half of the year actually have prices below 2900 points. The third inflection point is the inflection point belonging to the market style, the market style in the first half of the year is more biased, except for AI and the Chinese character head other sectors are mostly down, the second half of the market will further spread the money-making effect, investors will pay more attention to the performance of listed companies. The market style will shift from speculation to performance, and high-quality leading stocks such as new energy and consumption with excellent performance may usher in better opportunities. Therefore, from these perspectives, the market is currently off to a good start in the second half of the year, and investors must strengthen their confidence and seize opportunities by allocating good stocks and funds.
In the first half of this year, the new energy sector as a whole underwent a relatively large adjustment. New energy vehicles, driven by rising sales, began to see a wave of rebound in June. Including new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and resource stocks have all rebounded to a certain extent. Now, compared with the high point, the price of many stocks in the new energy vehicle industry chain is still five percent or even lower than the high point, so it is just starting from the perspective of rebound, and there is still a relatively large opportunity for valuation repair in the second half of the year. The replacement of traditional fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles is the trend of the times, and it is also the only way for the mainland to achieve curve overtaking. In the process of new energy vehicle development, we see that China's advantages are very obvious, the world's new energy vehicles in China accounted for 60%, this year the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may reach more than 30%, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will be expected to exceed 9 million, it can be said that it is very difficult, which is a relatively high growth rate in various industries. From the perspective of automobile exports, the export of new energy vehicles in mainland China has gradually reflected its advantages, the number of export vehicles in the first half of this year continued to maintain a relatively rapid growth, the export growth of new energy vehicles is more than 100%, in May new energy vehicle sales increased by more than 60% year-on-year, which shows that new energy vehicles are being welcomed by more and more consumers. In order to stimulate consumption, the second half of the year may continue to give some favorable policy support to new energy vehicles, which will also support the performance of the entire sector. In addition, other sectors of new energy, such as photovoltaics, wind power and energy storage, are still relatively high from the perspective of prosperity. From January to May this year, the industrial added value increased by about 3.6%, while the growth of new energy photovoltaic power generation exceeded 50%, reflecting a relatively high degree of prosperity. From the performance of listed companies, whether it is an annual report or a quarterly report, the leaders of many industries such as photovoltaics and wind power have achieved 30%~50% profit growth, so the long-term trend of the new energy sector in the future can also be positively optimistic, and we can actively pay attention to new energy leading stocks or clean energy funds to seize the opportunities of the new energy sector. In the stage of triple inflection point superposition, now is also an opportunity to lay out good companies and good funds.
The recent depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar has worried many investors. The main reason is that the Fed's expectation of interest rate hikes is increasing, which has led to a recent wave of rise in the dollar index, and the rise of the dollar index has also led to the depreciation of non-US currencies. Therefore, the main reason for the depreciation of the RMB is that the monetary policy deviation between China and the United States is large, the US benchmark interest rate has reached 5% ~ 5.25%, and in June the mainland central bank took a rate cut, from the reduction of deposit interest rates to the reduction of LPR, MLF and other interest rates, which mainly sends a signal to stimulate economic recovery. Therefore, the main policy goal of the mainland central bank is to stabilize economic growth, boost consumption growth and boost investment growth by cutting interest rates. The Fed has now raised interest rates ten times violently, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that inflation cannot be taken lightly and that one or two more rate hikes are expected before the end of the year. However, there is no predetermined roadmap for raising interest rates, and it is still necessary to decide whether to raise interest rates and the pace of interest rate hikes according to changes in economic growth and inflation. Therefore, the Fed expects to raise interest rates, while the mainland central bank has taken measures to cut interest rates to promote economic recovery, and the deviation of Sino-US monetary policy has made the dollar stronger and the yuan weaker, and the central bank has recently expressed its determination to stabilize the exchange rate. In the long run, the RMB has no basis for long-term depreciation relative to the US dollar, and with the gradual landing of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the deviation of Sino-US monetary policy may narrow in the second half of the year, so that the RMB will have a certain rebound, before the end of the year, the RMB equivalent to the US dollar exchange rate is expected to return to the "6" head, should be more hopeful.
The artificial intelligence sector is a relatively hot sector this year, and A-shares, whether they are concept stocks with good performance artificial intelligence or those without performance support, have risen sharply, which has also generated certain risks to a certain extent. And many recent tricks to reduce holdings, but also let everyone see that many of the companies that have reduced their holdings, most of them are AI companies. After the sharp rise in stock prices, the motivation to reduce large and small holdings, and some divorce-style reductions, etc., have also sounded the alarm for investors to some extent. That is to say, we are optimistic about the long-term development trend of artificial intelligence, and ChatGPT has indeed changed many people's cognition of artificial intelligence. I went to the United States to attend the Buffett shareholder meeting on May Day this year, and also went to Silicon Valley to visit the two technology giants Google and Apple, and I really feel that the application of ChatGPT will be more extensive in the future, and there will be several great companies in the future. However, at present, there is no obvious leading company in artificial intelligence in China, and it is not certain which company can do it in the future. And these hyped companies do not have much to do with ChatGPT, so domestic investment in artificial intelligence can be concerned, for example, in chip semiconductors, as well as unmanned driving and other artificial intelligence fields, there may be companies that have made relatively large applications and technological breakthroughs, but it is indeed difficult to study at present. This year's situation is that almost all artificial intelligence stocks have risen sharply, and some investors even translate AI into "All in", which actually reflects that a certain risk has been relatively large, so at this time, it is recommended that everyone remain cautious, take profits in time, and lay out some high-quality leading stocks that were killed by mistake. Then wait until the future artificial intelligence development to a certain extent, we see which companies may become the leader of the industry, which company will have a breakthrough in technology, or can release performance in the application, we are not too late to configure, now we still have to pay attention to the risks, do not hype too much.
The medium special valuation sector is also a sector with relatively strong performance this year, it may also be a basis for the A-share market to develop the slow bull and long bull market in the next few years, the theory of the special valuation is a basis for the slow bull and long bull market in the A-share market, but for the special valuation can not only recognize that it is the head of the Chinese character, in fact, there will be good companies with Chinese characteristics have the opportunity to recover in valuation. I put forward the concept of value investment with Chinese characteristics a few years ago, that is, when learning value investment, it is necessary to combine the actual value investment of the A-share market to seize the opportunities of the A-share market, rather than mechanically imitating Buffett's value investment, and has now achieved relatively great success, like the banking sector in the head of the Chinese character, due to low valuation and high dividend rate, this year also has a certain performance, but the stock price sustainability is not too strong, so there was a trend of rushing high and falling. In the long run, the banking sector also has some opportunities for valuation repair in the future, but the stock price may not be very elastic. The real estate is affected by the cold real estate transaction volume, the real estate sector as a whole is still in the stage of differentiation, performance-supported, low-valued housing companies may have a certain chance of rebound, and most housing companies may still face the pressure of tight capital chain, coupled with the real estate industry golden investment period has passed, the future investment opportunities are relatively small.
From the perspective of the country's adjustment of industrial policies, I think the industries that can be optimistic about the future are mainly concentrated in three major areas, the first is large consumption, the second is new energy, and the third is science and technology. And large consumption includes such as liquor, medicine, food and beverage, etc., while new energy includes new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, etc., and technology includes industries such as artificial intelligence, chip semiconductors, etc., so in investment, we must see which industries are long-term investment opportunities and which are short-term. Like the previous adjustment of the relatively large pharmaceutical sector is mainly affected by centralized procurement, now the centralized procurement policy should be near the end, and many pharmaceutical leading stocks with real innovation ability, and some traditional Chinese medicine leaders with brand value actually have certain opportunities. Of course, affected by centralized procurement, generic drug companies with a relatively large decline in performance may not have many opportunities, which investors should also distinguish. For consumer products, I think now is also an opportunity for layout, consumption recovery in the second half of the year may increase, and there may be more favorable policies in terms of consumption. In addition, brand consumer goods such as liquor and food and beverage have relatively good profitability, so it is also an opportunity to deploy consumer products at present. In the third quarter, you can pay attention to the performance of the Chinese and American stock markets. The performance of the peripheral market has been stronger than the A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market since the beginning of this year, so many investors also feel more confused. This situation may change in the second half of the year, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strengthening, and the economic growth rate in Europe and the United States is slowing, so after the big rebound in European and American stock markets in the first half of the year, there may be a certain decline in the second half of the year. The high-quality stocks of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen a relatively large decline this year, and their valuations are relatively low, so now is a better time to allocate them. Therefore, in terms of asset allocation, we can increase the allocation ratio of high-quality stocks or high-quality funds for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and for investments in peripheral markets with relatively large increases, products in peripheral markets can be profited in time. Of course, there are also some institutions that have recently let AI manage funds, and some people question whether fund managers will be unemployed, in fact, AI has certain applications in fund management, but it cannot completely replace and replace active stock selection, nor can it be proved that it can beat fund managers. Perhaps AI will play an auxiliary role in assisting fund managers in research and stock selection, including AI can also provide some reference suggestions for global capital market allocation, so in terms of investment, I think that in the second half of the year, we can deploy more active funds with good performance.
How to choose a fund, especially for newbies, I think there are several aspects to look at. One is to look at the fund manager, because the fund manager is the most critical person to determine the performance of the fund, the fund manager is equivalent to the helmsman of the ship, the fund manager must have a better investment philosophy and a relatively stable investment style, able to adhere to value investment. The second is to look at the top ten heavy stocks, whether they are good companies with good performance, because it is equivalent to you buying funds to indirectly hold these top ten heavy stocks, so it is more important. The third is to look at past performance, of course, past performance should look at medium and long-term performance, rather than paying too much attention to short-term performance, long-term performance can better reflect the level of fund managers. The investment fund is equivalent to buying your own stocks, one is to achieve professional investment, the fund manager helps you to choose stocks, the second is to achieve the benefits of diversified investment, because the fund is to buy a basket of stocks, not buy one or two stocks, which reduces the risk of individual stocks. The third is that fund investment, as a way of asset allocation, is known as lazy investment, which can reduce the pressure of personal psychological investment and so on. Therefore, in the long run, public funds, as the most popular way of public financial management, have relatively large room for development in the future. This year is also the 25th anniversary of the development of the fund industry, and from the perspective of the scale of public funds, it has reached about 270,000~28 trillion. It can be said that it has become one of the most popular tools for public financial management.
(Yang Delong is the chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund)