Think tank reports and new arms sales to Taiwan
The state announced a new arms sales bill to Taiwan, and immediately after the US strategic think tank said: If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will not be able to hold out for 90 days Chinese mainland. Is the bill related to the think tank's research?
Less than half a month after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China, the U.S. State Department approved a $440 million arms sale to Taiwan, including 30mm ammunition for F-16 fighters and spare parts for wheeled vehicles. This is US President Joe Biden's 10th arms sale to Taiwan since he took office, and it is also the second arms sale this year.
According to reports, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the two arms sales on Thursday (June 29). One of them, worth US$332.2 million, includes 30mm high-explosive incendiary tracer rounds, multi-purpose munitions and training rounds; The other, worth $108 million, includes spare and repair parts for wheeled vehicles, weapons and other related components.
DSCA said these arms sales are consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act, advance U.S. foreign policy and national security goals by supporting Taiwan's continued military modernization and reliable defense capabilities, and will also help improve Taiwan's security and maintain regional political stability, military balance and economic progress.
Americans who reneged
However, this arms sale comes less than half a month after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China, showing the US backtracking and confrontational attitude on the Taiwan issue. During his visit to China, Blinken personally stated that he did not support "Taiwan independence," and the Chinese side also made a very clear explanation to Blinken on the sensitivity of the Taiwan issue. But the United States repeated its old mistake: continue to say one thing and do another. At the same time, it will continue to hollow out the one-China policy, continue to arm the Taiwan authorities, and vigorously engage in the so-called "using Taiwan to contain China."
In response to the collusion between the United States and Taiwan, the PLA immediately launched countermeasures and sent 24 sorties and five warships to operate in the Taiwan Strait, 11 of which directly crossed the so-called "middle line of the strait." According to Taiwan's Zhongshi News Network, on June 30, the Taiwan military said that from 8 o'clock on the same day, 24 Continental Army aircraft entered the Taiwan Strait, of which 11 directly crossed the so-called "middle line of the strait."
The motivation for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan
US arms sales to Taiwan are an important part of US policy toward Taiwan. The first is to balance Sino-US relations. The United States and China are the world's two largest economies and military powers, and there is multifaceted cooperation and competition between the two countries. In recent years, there have been some frictions and conflicts in Sino-US relations, involving issues such as trade, human rights, science and technology, the South China Sea, and Hong Kong. The United States may believe that by selling arms to Taiwan, it can put pressure on China to make concessions or compromises on other issues.
Second, it is to safeguard the interests and influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States has always regarded the Asia-Pacific region as its strategic priority and believes that it is the key to maintaining world peace and stability. The United States has also always regarded Taiwan as an important ally and partner in the Asia-Pacific region, and believes that Taiwan's security is closely related to US interests. The United States may believe that through arms sales to Taiwan, it can enhance Taiwan's defense capability and prevent the mainland from taking armed action against Taiwan, thereby safeguarding the status and interests of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region.
Impact of RAND Corporation Reports
The RAND Corporation is a well-known strategic research institution, and its reports tend to be highly authoritative and influential. A recent RAND report uses a method called "War Games" to simulate different scenarios and outcomes that could occur if armed conflict between the two sides of the strait were to occur. The report analyzes four scenarios:
Scenario 1: The mainland unilaterally launches an attack on Taiwan without external intervention.
Scenario 2: The mainland unilaterally launches an attack on Taiwan, with limited support from the United States.
Scenario 3: The mainland unilaterally launches an attack on Taiwan, and the United States fully intervenes.
Scenario 4: Taiwan unilaterally declares "independence", the mainland countermeasures, and the United States fully intervenes.
The report draws the following key conclusions:
Conclusion one: In the absence of external intervention, the continent has a high probability of successfully occupying or.
In the absence of external intervention, the mainland has a high probability of successfully occupying or controlling Taiwan. The report estimates that the mainland could complete its attack on Taiwan within 90 days, and Taiwan cannot effectively resist. The report argues that the mainland has absolute superiority over Taiwan in both quantity and quality, while Taiwan's defense capabilities and strategic reserves are limited. The report also pointed out that the mainland can use various ways to put pressure on Taiwan, such as missile strikes, cyber attacks, blockades, landings, etc., while Taiwan can only rely on its own air and sea forces to counterattack.
Conclusion 2: With limited U.S. support, the mainland still has a high probability of successfully occupying or controlling Taiwan. The report estimates that with limited U.S. support, the mainland could complete its attack on Taiwan within 120 days, and Taiwan remains unable to resist effectively. The report argues that with limited U.S. support, the U.S. can only provide Taiwan with some weapons and materiel.
and conduct symbolic military operations, such as sending aircraft carriers or warplanes for patrols or exercises. These actions will not change the balance of power between the two sides of the strait, nor will they prevent the mainland from attacking Taiwan. The report also points out that when the United States provides limited support, the United States will also face some risks and costs, such as being countered by the mainland, losing allies and credibility, and triggering domestic opposition.
Conclusion 3: With the full involvement of the United States, both the mainland and the United States will suffer heavy losses, while Taiwan will still be difficult to maintain its integrity. The report estimates that in a fully engaged U.S. scenario, both the continent and the United States would pay a huge price and could fall into a prolonged stalemate. The report argues that with full U.S. involvement, the U.S. could provide Taiwan with more weapons and materiel and conduct more military operations, such as sending aircraft carriers or warplanes for strike or defense.
These actions can somewhat weaken the mainland's offensive capability against Taiwan and give Taiwan more time and space. However, these actions will also inflame cross-strait conflicts and trigger mainland counterattacks against the United States. The report also pointed out that with the full involvement of the United States, both the mainland and the United States will face some risks and challenges, such as interference by third parties, leading to nuclear war or world war, and causing huge human and property losses.
Conclusion 4: In the event that Taiwan unilaterally declares "independence," both the mainland and the United States will take tough measures, and Taiwan will face disaster. The report estimates that in the event of Taiwan's unilateral declaration of "independence," the mainland will immediately launch an all-out attack on Taiwan, regardless of the consequences. The United States, on the other hand, sees this as a challenge to its interests and credibility and will have to intervene fully.
The report argues that in the event of Taiwan's unilateral declaration of "independence," Taiwan will become a victim, not a beneficiary, between the two sides of the strait and between China and the United States. The report also points out that in the case of Taiwan's unilateral declaration of "independence", both the mainland and the United States will face greater risks and costs, such as being condemned by the international community, triggering a global crisis, and leading to irreversible consequences.
To sum up, the RAND Corporation report provides a detailed analysis and prediction of the possibility and outcome of a war in the Taiwan Strait, and gives some sobering conclusions. This report has important implications and enlightenment for Taiwan, the mainland and the United States.
Influence and enlightenment for Taiwan independence
For Taiwan, the RAND report was a heavy blow. The report shows that Taiwan cannot resist the mainland's offensive and maintain its status quo or integrity, either without outside intervention or with limited or full support from the United States.
For Taiwan, the RAND Corporation report is also a useful lesson. The report shows that U.S. support for Taiwan is not unconditional and unlimited, but is constrained by U.S. own interests and risks. The United States may also choose to compromise or back down when faced with strong pressure from the mainland.
These conclusions have undoubtedly given the Taiwan authorities and people a profound enlightenment, making them realize that they should not rely too much on the United States, but should seek peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation with the mainland. Therefore, for Taiwan, the RAND Corporation report should be an opportunity for it to reflect and adjust its relations with the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and the United States.
The Taiwan authorities should also accept the basis of the "consensus of '92" and the "one-China principle" and resume dialogue and communication with the mainland. The Taiwan authorities should also seize the historical opportunity for the development of cross-strait relations and actively participate in cross-strait exchanges and cooperation in the economic, cultural and social fields. Only in this way can Taiwan guarantee its security and development and achieve its long-term peace and stability.
Influence and enlightenment on the continent
For Mainland, the RAND report is an encouraging affirmation. The report shows that with no or limited outside intervention, the mainland has a high probability of successfully occupying or controlling Taiwan. These conclusions have undoubtedly given the mainland a strong confidence to realize its superiority and initiative on the Taiwan Strait issue.
The RAND report is also a reminder of vigilance and vigilance. The report shows that in the event of full US involvement or Taiwan's unilateral declaration of "independence", both the mainland and the United States will suffer heavy losses, while Taiwan will still struggle to maintain its integrity. These conclusions have undoubtedly given the mainland a sober understanding of the complexity and danger of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Implications and implications for the United States
For the United States, the RAND report is a troubling warning. The report shows that under no circumstances can the United States guarantee Taiwan's security or integrity, and it will face significant risks and costs. These conclusions have undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to the United States and made it realize its own difficulties and limitations on the Taiwan Strait issue.
The report shows that in any case, the United States needs to communicate and consult with the mainland and seek to avoid or mitigate conflicts between the two sides of the strait and between China and the United States. These conclusions have undoubtedly taught the United States a profound lesson that it should not excessively interfere in or provoke cross-strait relations, but should respect the wishes and choices of compatriots on both sides of the strait.
Therefore, for the United States, the RAND Corporation report should become an opportunity for it to re-examine and adjust its Taiwan policy and China policy. The United States should abandon its so-called "strategic ambiguity" and "double standards," explicitly recognize the "one-China" policy, and stop selling arms or providing other forms of support to Taiwan.
This article summarizes
The Taiwan Strait issue is an issue that involves the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and the major interests of the international community. Experts believe that the US arms sales to Taiwan will not change the situation of the war in the Taiwan Strait, nor can it stop the process of China's reunification, but will only increase Taiwan's security risks and economic burdens. These tattered weapons, which even the Americans do not use, are not enough to withstand the fire of the PLA.
Moreover, the real purpose of US arms sales to Taiwan is not to protect Taiwan, but to make profits and contain China. The United States will not go to war with China for Taiwan's sake, but will only use Taiwan as a pawn and bargaining chip.
Therefore, the Taiwan authorities and people should not have excessive expectations and dependence on the United States, nor should they be hostile and fearful of China. Only by having a clear understanding of the situation and conforming to the trend of history can we avoid the road of extinction. To put it simply: the United States just treats Taiwan as a tool to make money, and once the so-called US interests are really involved, then Taiwan independence will be completely abandoned and left to fend for itself. #多方回应 "The commander-in-chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces was arrested" ## PLA 24 sorties and 5 warships appeared in the Taiwan Strait ## The United States admitted that the downed Chinese airship did not collect intelligence ##美国 the "Lincoln" nuclear aircraft carrier caught fire again#