Guide:
The Pearl River gushes, day and night.
In the torrent of time, the wind is finally swept away, and only value is precipitated.
What is value? Capital gave it the basic definition of political economy: human labor condensed in commodities without distinction, while in the field of portfolio investment, value is usually the relationship between the intrinsic value of enterprises and the price given to them by the market.
Good companies need to build moats day by day, and good business needs to be tempered to form strong barriers. Good prices also need to wait for the moment in the volatility of the market. Behind value investment, there is a crystallization of time.
We invited the fund managers of GF Fund to share their understanding of time and thinking about value.
Let us, in the name of time, justify time.
Let's empower value in the name of value.
The Pearl River rolls, and a river of spring water flows east!
British science fiction writer Douglas Adams proposed the three laws of technology: First, any technology that existed when I was born was part of the world's original order. Second, any technology born between the ages of 15 and 35 is a revolutionary product that changes the world. Third, any technology born after I turn 35 is against the laws of nature and will be punished by God.
This wise passage reminds us to look at new technologies and new things with a keen eye and an open mind.
At present, the wave of general artificial intelligence AGI technology led by OpenAI, technological iterative progress and application innovation are changing with each passing day like a biological explosion. It does not require us to imagine the future like previous new technologies such as autonomous driving and virtual reality, and wait ten or twenty years for the maturity and application of technology. At present, general artificial intelligence has just crossed the technological singularity and demonstrated an explosive growth path beyond the Gartner curve. It is expected that in the next year or two, we will see artificial intelligence empower and transform all walks of life, and national-level applications may be fully rolled out.
Not AIGC, it's General Artificial Intelligence AGI
What is changing the world right now is not called AIGC (AI Generated Content), but General Artificial Intelligence AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
AIGC is the most common term used Chinese Internet and investment circles, and is a specific application (generating content, such as writing articles and drawings), and is the thinking of application and business model. The general artificial intelligence AGI describes a low-level general ability, a system that can show the level of human intelligence comparable to or surpass human intelligence in various fields and tasks, and is the thinking that scientific and technological innovation changes the world. AGI is not limited to any specific application, and generating content is just one of countless possible applications. In the interview between OpenAI founder Sam Altman and chief scientist Ilya, they have always talked about AGI, in fact, OpenAI has been a firm belief and supporter of AGI since its inception in 2015. AIGC is a word personally created by Robin Li, which is a continuation of the business model thinking of UGC (user-generated content, such as Weibo) and PUGC (professional user-generated content, such as B station). The term AIGC does not exist overseas, and using this word to summarize this wave of science and technology is too limited and biased and does not touch on the essence.
In addition, the public opinion and policy environment faced by general artificial intelligence will be far better than that of blockchain and metaverse. If the technical shell is removed, the intrinsic values of blockchain and metaverse are decentralization, dematerialization to virtuality, and parallel worlds; But general artificial intelligence is a productivity tool or infrastructure, similar to the steam engine, electricity, and the Internet, which can empower all walks of life and improve the production efficiency of the whole society. In layman's terms, the metaverse is user experience-oriented and is used to play; General artificial intelligence is a tool, and it is used to use. We can do without the metaverse, but we can't do without general artificial intelligence.
The difference between the general artificial intelligence large model led by OpenAI and the previous era of small models can be compared as follows: the small model is equivalent to the baby just born to set a major, only learn this one discipline and one skill for a lifetime, the advantage is that it is easier to produce results in specific fields, the disadvantage is that there are strong limitations, and there is nothing to do in the face of new problems; The big model is equivalent to from birth to elementary school, middle school to university, without determining a specific major, but receiving a broad general education: mathematics, physics, chemistry in science, history, geography and so on in liberal arts, learn everything. After the large model is trained, it is equivalent to a graduate of general education at Harvard University, and it has mastered a general basic ability that can be used to flexibly analyze and solve problems: natural language understanding ability, logical reasoning ability, deductive generalization ability, etc., not limited to a specific field and application. Therefore, a small model is to deal with a clearly defined specific problem (such as chess, translation, facial recognition, etc.), while a general artificial intelligence large model is an underlying general capability that can flexibly analyze and solve new problems.
The technological revolution in general artificial intelligence may have more impact on the world than the steam engine, electricity, and the Internet combined. At present, there are different core issues for artificial intelligence overseas and domestic. OpenAI is sparing no effort to create an image that attaches great importance to security in the era of artificial intelligence, seeking to lead the dominance of regulatory standards and industry rule-making, so as to reduce the pressure of public opinion and regulatory policies. The core issue in China is more independent and controllable: the wave of overseas general artificial intelligence technology may bring about an increase in the production efficiency of the whole society, and we need to break through the neck link and catch up with the most advanced scientific and technological progress of artificial intelligence.
General-purpose artificial intelligence may emerge at the national level
The rhythm of technological development usually conforms to the Gartner curve: first technological breakthroughs bring strong expectations, then dormant waiting, and finally industrialization landing. For new technologies such as virtual reality, metaverse, autonomous driving, and robotics, it takes many years to wait for a long time from laboratory technology breakthroughs and innovative concepts to large-scale industrialization. However, the general artificial intelligence led by OpenAI, from the end of 2022 ChatGPT to show strong capabilities, to the industrialization of only a few months: represented by New Bing and Office Copilot, similar to the biological explosion quickly emerged many new applications. This may indicate that general artificial intelligence has quietly completed the stage of scientific and technological breakthroughs and dormant waiting in the absence of general social attention, officially crossing the scientific and technological singularity and entering the era of application explosion.
The impact of the development wave of general artificial intelligence technology on the capital market can be divided into four stages: domestic policy height and overseas science and technology trend resonance; Regulation and application implementation; The emergence of national-level applications has led to a rapid increase in penetration rate; Revenue and profit cashing. The main wave stage of the capital market's enthusiasm for general artificial intelligence may appear when the national application is born: in a few months to a year, the penetration rate of popular applications empowered by general artificial intelligence may rapidly increase from single digits to more than 60%, similar to the rapid rise in WeChat penetration in 2013 representing the arrival of the mobile Internet era.
If you don't count vertical fields such as programming, painting, and education, and only discuss national-level applications that can be used by everyone, I think it will soon appear in three aspects, in chronological order: information search and browsing aids, office software, and personal intelligent assistants. At present, Moore's Law and the pace of computing power chip expansion cannot keep up with the rapid growth of computing power demand brought about by large model training reasoning. After the comprehensive rollout and cost reduction of the large model, these application changes with general artificial intelligence as the underlying technology are no longer long-term planning and imagination for the future, but can quickly be practically implemented and become a national-level application that is inseparable from daily work life.
Information search and browsing assistance may be in the form of the latest version of New Bing, the left side of the page is search and information browsing, and the right side has always had an artificial intelligence dialogue window, assisting users to summarize, understand, question and answer and recreate information. Office software is similar to the form of Office Copilot, users can use natural language to provide demand to complete most document work, greatly improve work efficiency, do not use artificial intelligence office software workers will quickly lose competitiveness. Both of these apps have the potential to become national apps that most people use every day by the end of this year.
The next possible national application is the personal intelligent assistant. Human tools have always evolved in the direction of reducing the difficulty and threshold of use, and simple ways of using, with the transformation of the way people and machines interact, to achieve a truly elegant and simple experience: solve all requirements in the same dialog box in a natural language way (automatically call various capability interfaces in the background). This becomes a real personal intelligent assistant, similar to Jarvis in the "Iron Man" movie. Users do not need to learn the specific use of any software, nor do they need to understand the specific implementation process and which functions to call, just put forward requirements in natural language. When we get used to such a user experience, looking back at the current mobile APP era, we will feel full of the rough sense of the industrial era, just like we now see the feeling of the old TV remote control covered with dozens of buttons.
General artificial intelligence is the first to transform vertical industries such as software and games
For general AI, people are brainstorming: What applications and industries can it transform? The better question is: what can't it do? As an underlying general-purpose foundational capability, general artificial intelligence may eventually transform all industries, but there is a chronological sequence. For now, it seems that general artificial intelligence may be the first to bring obvious changes to vertical industries such as software and games.
The era of general artificial intelligence will bring about an increase in the value of software. The use rate of most functions of To C software is very low, and the learning threshold is high (such as the Office suite, the vast majority of people may only use a very simple function, a large number of advanced and complex functions are only used by very few people). After accessing general artificial intelligence, users can directly put forward requirements in natural language, and the software automatically calls all possible advanced functions after understanding the requirements, and finally meets customer needs. As a result, for To C software, more than 90% of previously rarely used features now need to be repriced. In addition, the reasons for the long-term unsatisfactory development of the To B software industry in China are mainly: engineer dividend, IT labor cost is relatively low, so IT cost tends to be internalized; A large number of customized services are required, and the proportion of project system is high. To B software with general artificial intelligence and natural language interaction capabilities will overcome the above problems to a certain extent.
The increase in the value of software in the era of general artificial intelligence is essentially a redistribution of the budget: from labor costs to software budgets. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, proposed that OpenAI will not compete with applications in various downstream industries, but will focus on providing artificial intelligence underlying technical support and cultivating an application ecosystem. The MaaS (Model as a Service) architecture allows large model companies and vertical industry application companies to find cooperation methods to improve the professional capabilities of large models in vertical fields under the premise of protecting their core interests.
For the game industry, in addition to reducing development costs, artificial intelligence will also bring great changes to the game experience. A Stanford research team built social experiments with artificial intelligence NPCs that mimic human social activity that exhibit astonishing intelligence and rich "individual" lives. Players can get a live-action interaction experience, and the immersion is greatly improved, achieving an experience similar to the TV series Westworld, which is a true open-world game. The rapid development of general artificial intelligence has made it possible to imagine the concept of the metaverse. Lin Yifu mentioned that "in the future, human beings may only need to work one day a week", so that extra time can be used for personal leisure entertainment such as games.
(Risk Warning: The views and judgments contained in this article are solely those of the investment manager.) This article is for communication purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market. ）