In the first half of 2023, under the background of the weak recovery of the domestic economy, A-shares showed a structural market with strong AI and special estimation. Money is also constantly looking for room to switch. Looking forward to the second half of the year, how will the market change? Which macroeconomic policies will be important factors affecting capital markets? Artificial intelligence, new energy, consumption, what investment opportunities need to be grasped?
At the 2023 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference of Ping An Fund held on the 15th, Guo Lei, Chief Economist of GF Securities, and Ping An Fund Managers Shen Aqian, Zhang Xiaoquan, Huang Wei, Xue Jiying, Zhai Sen, Ding Lin and Zhang Miao, analyzed and discussed hot topics of market concern such as "the current macroeconomic situation and asset pricing environment", "artificial intelligence under the wave of big models" and "asset investment direction in the second half of the year", jointly discussed the capital market trends in the second half of the year, and studied and judged the medium and long-term investment context and opportunities.
Positive macro signs are happening
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Guo Lei predicted that the policy will start a round of stable growth and expand domestic demand, the actual growth will gradually stabilize and pick up, economic growth will gradually repair to the medium-term center, and the inventory cycle may bottom out at the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter of this year.
He said that standing at the current level, some positive signs are happening at the macro level. Since the beginning of the year, the micro process of the economy has shown a symmetrical situation of ups and downs, experienced the economic divergence caused by the flattening of demand and supply adjustment, and the trend of supply and demand began to slow down in the synchronous adjustment of supply and demand. From a medium perspective, Guo Lei believes that this year's economy is a differentiated recovery, and the current performance is relatively good in contact services, finance-related fields, real estate sales, etc.; Relatively sluggish sectors include real estate investment, consumer electronics and automobiles.
When talking about the medium-term development in the next 5-10 years, Guo Lei believes that it will undergo a round of switching of the policy framework, that is, from growth to development, and then to the realization of "Chinese-style modernization", from the adjustment structure of the past stock to incremental strategic upgrading. In order to achieve this development goal, the current macro short-term focus is still to solve the problem of insufficient aggregate demand, the problem of balancing supply, and the short-term pressure on fiscal employment caused by the contraction of traditional sectors.
Returning to the stock and bond market, Guo Lei believes that for the stock market, the main short-term clue is the marginal stabilization of the economy and the steady growth of policies; At the same time, it is necessary to further observe the landing of the entire modern industrial system and whether the economic equilibrium performance is formed. In the face of the bond market, it believes that the medium term is more favorable, but it needs to pay attention to interest rate changes in the short term.
Shen Aiqian expressed his optimistic views on the economy and the market, saying that under the high-quality development of the economy, some new momentum and new characteristics can be seen, and new opportunities have emerged in investment. Standing at the moment, it is a relatively firm market bottom. On the one hand, policy-guided science and technology, high-end manufacturing, and medicine have relatively good opportunities for activity; On the other hand, traditional competitive industry leaders and core asset companies are basically at the bottom of valuation after two or three years of decline, and the future long-term investment income is very worth looking forward to.
Artificial intelligence is the most important direction next
Xue Jiying's view of AI is straightforward: artificial intelligence has reached an inflection point of explosion.
He said that artificial intelligence is an important scientific and technological revolution, and its transformation of human productivity and production methods is no less than that of the Internet. Taking ChatGPT as an example, in just over a month, the number of users exceeded 100 million, which is the fastest growing application in history. From the perspective of overseas development trends, the update and iteration speed of artificial intelligence is accelerating, and we will see more and more applications and innovations that exceed expectations in the future. When it comes to investment opportunities in the direction of artificial intelligence, Xue Jiying believes that it is mainly divided into two aspects: computing power and application.
Zhai Sen agrees, arguing that the biggest investment opportunities in all tech industries are driven by technological innovation and applied innovation. From the last wave of mobile Internet to this wave of artificial intelligence, this year may be the first year of the entire industry, and it should also be the first year.
In addition, Huang Wei expressed optimism about scientific instruments, and he believes that there are three factors that will promote its development. First, the mainland's demand for independent and controllable scientific instruments is very strong; Second, although the number of relevant listed enterprises in China is relatively small, the potential of the entire track is huge; Third, the scientific instrument industry not only has scientific and technological attributes, but also has consumption attributes. With the accumulation of technology and brand, a positive cycle can be formed, and its moat can be deeper and deeper. In terms of performance, the performance fluctuations of the industry are not as large as the traditional fluctuations of technology stocks, but it has good growth and countercyclical properties, so this is a very good business model overall.
China's auto manufacturing industry has a new opportunity to enter the industry
In the field of new energy vehicles, auto parts have been favored by fund managers such as Zhang Xiaoquan. Zhang Xiaoquan believes that with the rise of new energy vehicles, the response of new forces in car manufacturing is faster, while the overall response of old automobile companies is slow, which will inevitably bring about reshaping their own supply chain, which means that at this critical point in time, China's automobile manufacturing industry has a new opportunity. Now it can be seen that China's auto parts companies are rapidly using new energy vehicles to enter the global auto parts enterprises.
In this context, he believes that the auto parts industry should not only look at the total beta as in the past, should be valued according to the growth of strong cyclical stocks, the future of China's auto parts companies can find a large number of opportunities in it, with the cut into the global industrial chain, profit income can continue to grow, products can continue to iteratively upgrade, and constantly develop new customers and upgrade more high-end customers. In the process, the valuations of car companies will be repaired.
Zhang Miao, manager of Ping An Fund, said that the entire automotive industry, especially the auto parts industry, is an industry with huge potential opportunities. China's parts companies are currently relatively small in market capitalization and are expected to grow into relatively large companies in the future. First, China has a very strong cost advantage; Secondly, the ability of modern factory management is outstanding, and the ability of factory management and industrial chain control is not inferior to other large foreign-funded factories in the world; Third, Chinese manufacturing companies have the ability to respond quickly, especially with downstream customers.
There are structural opportunities in the overall slow recovery of the consumer sector
For the consumption sector, Ding Lin believes that the entire recovery of consumption depends on the consumption scene and consumption willingness. The recovery of the consumption scene this year is very rapid, but the willingness to consume has been suppressed, mainly because in the past three years, the balance sheet of residents has been greatly affected, and the future income expectations may be relatively less optimistic, and now it is necessary to adjust downward, and in this process, phased consumption will produce some inhibition, but over time, the economy gradually recovers, and the balance sheet of residents will slowly repair. Future revenue expectations will also enter the normal forecast situation. Under such circumstances, after residents have confidence in consumption, they believe that consumption will re-enter an upward stage.
In the short term, Ding Lin believes that consumption may not be too bright, but there are still some structural opportunities, such as this year's pan-consumption field, whether it is health care, medical health, or clothing, gold jewelry, etc., the increase is considerable, so even if the entire consumption macro beta is relatively weak, it is still possible to find some structural opportunities in the entire pan-consumption field.
This article is from CaiLian News