Located in the belly of the Eurasian continent, Kazakhstan has always been a strategic point that China and Russia value, and the relationship between the three parties has always been very good. While China and Russia gave "benefits" to Kazakhstan, Kazakh President Tokayev also "swore a promise" to China and Russia to strengthen the partnership between Central Asian countries and China and Russia. However, recently Russian media came out with a bombshell news that Kazakhstan authorities confiscated a batch of DJI drones bound for Russia. As a traditional ally of Russia, between Russia and Western countries, has Tokayev already figured out how to "choose sides"?
(At the Eurasian Economic Union, Tokayev made promises to Putin)
It is reported that this batch of DJI drones was seized by customs officials in the Zhambyl region of Kazakhstan on the grounds of illegality, a total of 14 DJI AgrasT30 drones, with a total value of about 172 billion rubles. In addition, the drones confiscated by Kazakhstan have stated that they will not be returned to Russia and will be disposed of at auction. Of course, in addition to its high value, DJI drones can play a major role in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
British think tank research has found that limited by the strength of Russia and Ukraine, the two countries now mainly use drones to obtain intelligence and surveillance. And Russia, which has DJI drones, is simply "like a tiger with wings" on the battlefield, in three to five minutes, it can hit the Ukrainian military, then if there is no DJI UAV, it will take half an hour. Therefore, during the time period of the "counteroffensive" of the Ukrainian army, these drones were seized by Kazakhstan, and their combat effectiveness will be greatly weakened for Russia.
(DJI drones are very important on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield)
Then some friends may ask, why can Kazakhstan seize Russian drones? In fact, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in order to suppress Russia on a large scale, Western countries led by the United States adopted a series of sanctions against Russia, including not only diplomatic and political aspects, but also economic aspects. In order to circumvent Western sanctions, Russia and countries in Central Asia have adopted the methods of "parallel import" and "entrepot trade" on a large scale.
The so-called "parallel import" refers to the way in which importers in certain countries directly import goods from abroad without the manufacturer's permission, which is very effective for Russia to circumvent sanctions. And for Kazakhstan, the same can earn a lot of money in the process. For example, in 2022, Kazakhstan exported 100,000 washing machines to Russia, and the same seized DJI drones are operated like this.
(Through entrepot trade, Russia circumvents Western sanctions)
But apparently, Kazakhstan is now beginning to be reluctant to endorse Russia. And this also seems to have traces, at the very beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Kazakhstan seemed very wavering. As a member of the CSTO, Kazakhstan should have stood firmly on Russia's side and extended a helping hand in a timely manner. After all, the purpose of the CSTO at the beginning of its establishment was to maintain the security of its member states and jointly defend against the threat of external forces. However, Kazakhstan unexpectedly refused Russia's request, and even showed indifference.
Since then, after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Central Asia, Tokayev has publicly made two moves against Russia, the first is that some time ago, Kazakhstan publicly announced that the threshold for trade between Kazakhstan and Russia was greatly raised, which means that Kazakhstan took the initiative to close the door to trade with Russia. To add insult to injury, in May, Kazakhstan's state-owned railway company issued a statement stating that Kazakhstan banned the shipment of oil to Russia.
(In order to win over Kazakhstan, the United States sent Blinken to Central Asia)
Against this background, Kazakhstan has some signs of turning toward the United States. Therefore, Russia immediately sent a letter of invitation to the Kazakh side, and Tokayev went to the Russian capital to participate in the Russian Victory Day parade. After that, Tokayev began to ease the situation, "cooling" between Russia and Kazakhstan, and at the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union, Tokayev also vowed to make a commitment with Putin, saying that he would strengthen the alliance with Russia to promote the integration of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. In addition, when Tokayev came to Xi'an, China to attend the China-Central Asia Summit, he also reached a lot of consensus with the Chinese side. Among them, Kazakhstan also made a commitment, saying that the Central Asian region will meet China halfway and promote the development of bilateral relations in a better direction.
Then, combined with Kazakhstan's recent seizure of Russia's DJI drones, Kazakhstan is now choosing a "balance" tactic between China, Russia and the United States, and this is also a new tone for Kazakhstan in the future. Then, in the current context of Russia's deep involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, when there is no time to take into account the large rear of the Central Asian region, any movement in Kazakhstan is worthy of vigilance.
Editor: Xiao Zhou
Review: War Knife