Climate change is the most challenging issue today. Extreme disaster events associated with climate change – such as runaway forest fires and hurricanes – are more frequent and harmful. More and more areas are suffering from devastating fires and floods caused by persistent drought and volatile severe weather.
In Africa, the impacts of climate change are particularly pronounced, leading to food insecurity, water stress and increased competition for scarce resources, which in turn will destroy livelihoods and displace hundreds of people.
On March 25, 2017, local time, in Baidoya, Somalia, a Somali woman carried her 1-year-old child, Dahabo Sheikh Mummin, to a medical center.
On September 20, 2022, local time, in Dollow, Somalia, a woman filled a container with water in a disaster camp.
Many people are forced to migrate in search of food and drinking water, which can also lead to violent conflict, which in turn threatens the well-being of the population and the integrity and legitimacy of the State's structures. In some parts of Africa, climate change has prolonged violent conflict, leaving large areas of the continent ungoverned. In 2020, more than 40 million new people were displaced across Africa, and climate change or climate-related conflicts are a key factor in causing mass displacement.
On March 30, 2017, local time, Mogadishu, Somalia, Somali refugees displaced by drought wait to receive food in a temporary camp.
At first glance, Asia's problems may not seem serious, but the continent is clearly and continuously warming and weather patterns are unpredictable. According to relevant indicators, nearly 60 million people in the Asia-Pacific region were affected by climate disasters in 2021. In 2022, floods caused by monsoon rains killed 1,500 people and displaced more than 30 million people in Pakistan. For years, Bangladesh has been highly vulnerable to climate change due to rising sea levels, and large areas of the country have been submerged, triggering large-scale migration.
On September 5, 2022, local time, Kalam, Pakistan, flood-stricken areas, floods destroyed bridges and roads, and people walked with food on their backs.
On October 25, 2022, local time, Kapalala, Bangladesh, aerial view showed flooded farmland and houses after heavy rains.
Since April this year, there has been a scorching heat wave in most parts of Asia, with record-breaking temperatures in many countries. In Southeast Asia, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar set record high temperatures, with local maximum temperatures reaching 45°C, 44.2°C and 44°C respectively. India's heat has killed more than a dozen people, and extreme heat and drought are also affecting India's food production. This is a wake-up call for the future.
April 25, 2023, local time, Bangkok, Thailand, workers move ice cubes into a storage warehouse at a fresh market under scorching hot weather.
Given that many parts of Asia are very densely populated and predominantly agricultural, climate change is expected to severely affect its economies and societies. Therefore, it is necessary for Asian experts and policymakers to understand the lessons of the adverse impacts of extreme climate change on African societies and governments, and to predict the potential harm of worsening climate change to the region in the coming decades, so as to pre-empt appropriate response policies and mechanisms.
This short article will draw on Africa's experience in managing climate change-related conflicts to show Asian facilitators and experts how best to adapt and respond to the problem.
On May 22, 2023, local time, in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, women shielded themselves from the sun with plastic bags on the streets.
The impact of climate change on Africa
In recent years, the continent has been particularly affected by global warming trends and capricious weather patterns (data released by the World Meteorological Organization in 2019 showed that the continent's average temperature was 0.56°C to 0.63°C above the long-term average between 1981 and 2010). Temperatures in Africa have continued to rise at a rate comparable to most other continents in recent decades, but much of Africa is too dependent on subsistence agriculture and livestock, with sub-Saharan Africa, the Horn of Africa and southern Africa disproportionately affected by social impacts. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the number of undernourished people in drought-prone sub-Saharan Africa has increased by 45.6% since 2012. In 2022, Somalia had no seasonal rains for four consecutive years, and more than half of the population was threatened with hunger. Parts of Kenya and Ethiopia are also severely water scarce.
On June 30, 2022, local time, in Mogadishu, Somalia, 25-year-old Nunay Mohamed fled from the drought-hit Lower Shabelle region, holding a one-year-old malnourished child in a makeshift camp.
On September 19, 2022, local time, a girl ate at school in Somalia.
By and large, the instability caused by climate change in Africa stems largely from the community level. In sub-Saharan Sahel, for example, persistent drought and water scarcity lead to changing migration patterns, often undermining established customs and traditions of mutual aid specific to some regions. When outsiders or passers-by decide to stay in an area, the local community fabric is often destroyed.
The Centre for Humanitarian Dialouge has used the Sahel region as an example of how conflict erupts when outsiders of different faiths invade local communities. They may have interacted occasionally or periodically before, but climate change has forced once-moving populations to stay in areas already settled for long periods of time. After that, the original local customs and beliefs will be affected. Islamic pastoralists live side by side with farmers who practice "animism" or Christian rituals, and the former regard the latter's faith-related practices and rituals as cult gods under threat to each other's livelihoods. The result can only be violence.
In these cases, compromise and clear arrangements and agreements are needed to stabilize the situation and prevent or stop violent conflict. Local mediation and intervention are practical ways to address the impacts of climate change, but they target a wide variety of groups, which requires acceptance and understanding of the importance of mediation.
Projects that promote the efficient use of resources, such as ranching, improved planting and access to agricultural extension services, will be more conducive to successful mediation. Rebuilding managed by farmers and going with the flow is a community-driven, participatory and highly effective approach. However, convincing communities to embrace ingenious solutions based on nature requires effective dialogue and facilitation.
Local conflicts triggered by climate change affect state structures and governance, as people either address the destruction of traditions on their own or rely on opportunistic, often criminal- and ideologically motivated armed groups to provide security in the absence or absence of the will. Even when the state intervenes, its behavior is often reactive and even perceived by the community as taking sides. This could explain the serious violence that is currently taking place in parts of northern Nigeria.
In these circumstances, one of the main effects of climate change on humanity under the influence of water scarcity and food stress is that people are forced to move or migrate in different ways than before. Nigeria now averages more than 30 days a year with daily temperatures above 45°C, and millions of people are expected to migrate from the country's arid north to the wetter central region over the next 20 years.
The problem is particularly acute in so-called ungoverned or border areas, where government influence is low or non-existent. Across large swathes of Somalia and Nigeria, jihadist groups such as Al Shabab and Boko Haram still control communities increasingly affected by climate change. In the north-west frontier region between Nigeria, Benin and Niger, the challenge is even greater in anarchic areas, where criminal gangs thrive. This makes it difficult for communities to make ends meet. It is also difficult for international aid and relief agencies to intervene to mitigate the impact of food and water shortages in these regions. In the long run, inadequate government control will hinder the spread of climate-smart agriculture and help communities adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change.
The basic "three-step approach" to conflict resolution
Concerted efforts within and between countries to address these issues are a drop in the bucket. While some progress has been made in monitoring and measurement led by regional intergovernmental organizations, it is difficult to organize effective regional cooperation, given the high level of mistrust among affected countries and the frequency of direct conflicts. UNEP reports that in some of Africa's most affected areas, the issue is not just to provide short-term relief to communities, but also to promote nature-based long-term solutions to adapt to climate change.
Efforts to mitigate these problems have focused on resolving communal disputes. In the Sahel, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan, the Natural Resources Mediation Practice of the Humanitarian Dialogue Centre has shown that certain foundational tools can mitigate the pressures on communities caused by climate change.
First, natural resource mediation requires mediators to be knowledgeable about indigenous knowledge and the customs and traditions of affected communities. For example, although disputes may be related to the right to water, parties to a conflict often view the issue from an ethnic or religious perspective. Therefore, the emphasis on the perspective of natural resources helps to avoid override. The model of sharing natural resources evolved over several generations according to the ecological conditions of the time. Once conditions change, customs will be influenced and disrupted, causing tensions.
Working with local community leaders and establishing dialogue and mediation mechanisms, such as peace commissions, is the best way for parties to a dispute to reach understanding. In such cases, internal mediators and facilitators can best achieve effective use of external resources and advice.
Secondly, it is essential to have a detailed understanding and understanding of environmental changes or specific natural resources at the heart of conflict. This requires the effective use of technical experts to inform mediators of the most appropriate way to deal with resource disputes and their possible solutions. Technologists can also help communities adapt and increase productivity, such as Nigeria, which is increasing agricultural productivity through its National Livestock Transformation Programme.
Third, local community-based conflict mitigation efforts must be integrated with national structures and policy mechanisms to ensure that lessons are learned and disseminated or to inform national and regional policy development. This is the weakness of Africa — an Africa where there is a lack of coordination, incompetence in leadership and inadequate funding of national institutions, and in the absence of trust, it is difficult to establish links with multilateral institutions.
Despite simplifications, the basic "three-step approach" for addressing climate-change-induced conflicts at the community level holds important lessons for Asia.
Lessons Asia can learn
Asia's lessons from the current situation in Africa are that the physical impacts of climate change are closely linked to economic and social instability and conflict. Mitigating the effects of climate change can therefore not only make science better understand and better manage resources, but also anticipate and prevent social crises and conflicts.
In Asia, those whose livelihoods are closely linked to the environment will be most affected, and rural areas are dependent on the sky and therefore vulnerable to water scarcity and rising temperatures.
Myanmar, for example, is considered one of the world's most vulnerable countries to extreme weather events such as heat waves, floods and hurricanes. Myanmar's central arid region has long relied on agriculture and is also an area of current armed conflict, where farmers have to struggle to survive. Even as farmers manage to migrate to cities or more developed areas in central Myanmar, the lack of fresh water and electricity makes it difficult for people to earn a living in temperatures above 40°C.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that more than 60% of the population in Asia Pacific works in industries that are highly vulnerable to changes in weather patterns. It is estimated that the average temperature in Southeast Asia will rise by 2°C by mid-century. As a result, heat stress will have a huge impact on future productivity levels, reducing working hours and worsening the living conditions and health of those who cannot afford air conditioning, thereby exacerbating economic and social polarization. To mitigate the impacts of climate change on urban and rural areas, we need a detailed understanding of the impact of climate change on these communities and the ability to take effective preventive measures to resolve potential conflicts.
However, the nature of climate change-related conflicts in Asia differs from that in Africa. Migratory pastoralists in Asia do not have a tradition of crossing farmer settlements, and migrants from rural areas often leave their land and migrate to cities. Still, rural communities in arid areas most likely to be affected have long established local cultures. They practice the same rituals and customs that bind people to the land. If climate change creates displacement, the following impacts can be foreseen:
Socioeconomic hardship is less likely to lead to immediate anarchy and armed violence, but rather to increased inequality, social polarization and unrest, which needs to be managed by national and local authorities to prevent the escalation of violence;
Rising unemployment and resulting debt are already manifesting themselves in some areas, which may affect social harmony and stability;
• Migration of people from densely populated lowlands to less populated highlands can have further environmental impacts, such as deforestation and overexploitation of water resources;
• The need to strengthen border security management to address possible cross-border movements;
In areas accustomed to self-sufficiency, food security will become a serious problem.
Further learning from Africa's lessons requires dialogue and facilitation at two levels:
First, governments and localities need to support the development of community-level climate change mitigation tools and mechanisms. Climate risk assessment can start with creating heat maps of the most vulnerable areas and communities, just as other countries and regions around the world do. Once developed, the heatmap can be used as an early warning mechanism to facilitate inter-agency and cross-border cooperation. There is currently no effective country-based platform for cooperation, so more dialogue between experts and practitioners is needed to capture their attention and better dissect threats to human security.
Second, at the community level in the most affected areas, work with government agencies, local civil society organizations and international organizations to develop a range of preventive measures, such as:
- Dialogue and capacity-building activities to respond to and adapt to changing climatic conditions in potentially vulnerable areas;
- education and extension of climate-smart agriculture, conservation and environmental protection;
- Crop diversification programs;
- In areas affected by climate change, credit and loan schemes should provide adequate protection against further exploitation of local populations in response to declining incomes and employment;
- Identify potential resettlement areas and manage migration in a planned manner, taking into account the social, cultural and political impacts of climate change migration on the region of migration.
- Negotiate agreements to enable resource sharing and governance at the community level.
Given that climate change is already triggering large-scale social and political conflicts in Africa, it is critical that parts of Asia, particularly South and Southeast Asia, develop strategies to address climate-related economic and social change. Ideally, national institutions and decision-makers and affected communities need to be linked through public-private partnerships and platforms for dialogue. The case of Africa shows that there is a lack of coherence and coordination at both the national and community levels. Encouraging greater cooperation between government departments and civil society and the private sector can help develop feasible solutions to address the challenges of climate change to human security.
(Michael Vatijutis is a British writer, journalist and critic who studied at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London and received his PhD from Oxford University.) He has lived in Southeast Asia for nearly 40 years, traveled to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and other places, and worked as a reporter for the BBC and Far East Economic Review. He is currently a Senior Adviser at the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue based in Singapore. His recent Chinese published books include Monsoon-Blown Land: Fragmentation and Rebirth in Modern Southeast Asia. ）