Based on current seismic activity combined with historical seismic activity, we believe that a magnitude 7 to 7.3 earthquake is expected to occur in the southeast waters of the island of New Britain in Papua New Guinea from June 3 to June 10, 2023 [5.68 degrees south latitude, 152.17 degrees east longitude], with an estimated focal depth of 10 km to 40 km.
Forecast basis
1. On June 1, a series of earthquakes occurred on the island of New Britain, Papua New Guinea, and we suspect that this series of seismic activity may belong to the preshock sequence of a larger earthquake
According to data from the United States Geological Survey, on June 1, a 5.3 magnitude earthquake, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake, a 4.6 magnitude earthquake, a 4.9 magnitude earthquake, and a 4.9 magnitude earthquake occurred in the southeast sea area of New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea. Our analysis suggests that this series of earthquakes is most likely a preshock sequence for a larger earthquake.
2. There is a strong earthquake blank area in the southeast sea area of New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea
We inquired about the historical seismic activity of Papua New Guinea and New Britain Island provided by the United States Geological Survey and found that there was a strong earthquake blank area in the southeast sea of New Britain Island that lacked strong seismic release energy.