On May 22, 2023, at the Biomedicine and Health Sub-forum of the Greater Bay Area Science Forum, Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that predictions based on the SEIRS model show that the peak of the second wave of the new crown epidemic in 2023 will occur at the end of June, with a peak of about 40 million / week at the end of May and a peak of about 65 million / week at the end of June. However, he cautioned that this is based on model calculations and predictions and "may not be accurate."
Since May, more and more people around them have been "eryang", and many people have begun to worry that repeated infection with the new crown virus will bring long-term physical and psychological effects?
Recently, Gao Fu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out at the 2023 academic annual meeting of the National Clinical Medical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, "The more infections, the higher the risk of sequelae, which is clinical data, so the patient should be diagnosed and the drug should be used." ”
Long new crown or affect 10%~20% of infected people!
"Long COVID-19", the sequelae of COVID. The World Health Organization defines it as having symptoms 3 months after infection with the new coronavirus, lasting at least 2 months, and without other obvious triggers.
Common symptoms of the long new crown include: fatigue, brain fog, difficulty breathing and memory loss. These symptoms may appear after initial recovery from an acute COVID episode or persist after the initial COVID infection.
WHO pointed out that regardless of gender, age or the severity of the initial new crown infection, anyone infected with the new crown virus is likely to have a long new crown, and about 10%~20% of new crown patients will have persistent symptoms after infection.
According to the CDC, studies have shown that some groups of people may be more susceptible to the impact of long new crowns, such as people who have underlying health problems before contracting the new crown, people who have not been vaccinated against the new crown, and people who have multisystem inflammatory syndrome during or after infection with the new crown.
Does secondary infection increase the risk of coronavirus?
Studies have found that the more you get COVID-19, the greater the cumulative health risks. Even six months after reinfection, the excess risk of developing diseases such as heart disease, lung problems, diabetes, neurological disorders, etc. remains high. Washington University in St. Louis Ziyad Al-Aly, an epidemiologist at Louis's medical school, said that if you did not have the new crown at the time of the first infection, you may still be able to get a new infection after the second infection.
However, there are also studies that suggest the opposite. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the risk of a long coronavirus decreases with the number of infections. Adults have a 4% risk of developing a long coronavirus after the first infection, and the risk drops to 2.4% after reinfection. The risk of developing a new crown after the first infection in children and young people is 1%, and the decline is not significant.
On April 17, 2023, the team of Professor Yu Zujiang and Gou Jianjun of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University published a study in the Nature sub-journal "Signal Transduction and Targeted Therapy", clarifying that the sequelae of the new crown are closely related to microbiota disorders.
Studies have found that the oral and intestinal flora of patients infected with the new coronavirus are disordered, and they are long-term disordered after the nucleic acid turns negative; It also suggests that targeted modulation of fungal microbiome may improve COVID-19 prognosis, promote immune recovery, and prevent reinfection.
The long new crown needs attention, vaccination to help protection
The impact of the "long new crown" on individual health and public health burden cannot be ignored, but we do not need to be overly anxious and panic. At the peak of Eryang, the effective way to resist the new crown virus and its sequelae is still to do a good job of mask protection and active vaccination.
How to deal with emerging infectious diseases in the future? Lu Hongzhou, president of Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, said that it is still necessary to rely on vaccines, and the development of truly effective preventive vaccines is the direction to be worked on in the future. "At present, it has been found that the immune escape ability of the XBB strain is very strong, and the previous vaccines have not been effective against it, and we must develop a vaccine against the XBB strain as soon as possible, and vaccinate the elderly and tumor patients as soon as possible, which is the top priority."
On May 18, the World Health Organization (WHO) advisory group recommended a booster update for this year's new crown vaccine, suggesting that the new vaccine should mainly target the currently dominant variant XBB.
On May 22, 2023, at the Biomedicine and Health Sub-forum of the Greater Bay Area Science Forum, Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that it is very important to develop a vaccine with better protection against the XBB variant. He revealed that there are currently two vaccines against XBB that have been preliminarily approved, and three or four more will be approved soon.
How big is the risk of eryang? Key groups should pay attention to personal protection
According to the weekly report of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 6 months after the first infection with the new coronavirus Omicron variant, the chance of reinfection with the new coronavirus has increased significantly. If your immunity is weak, you may have less than 6 months since the previous infection, and you will have the risk of "two yang".
Wang Guiqiang, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Peking University First Hospital, said that at present, prevention work should pay attention to people who have not been infected before, especially the elderly who have not been vaccinated and have underlying diseases. It is recommended that high-risk groups always pay attention to personal protection and avoid infection as much as possible.
Once such people have cold and fever symptoms, they should be screened in time and seek medical attention as soon as they are determined to be infected with the new coronavirus. Early antiviral therapy and timely oxygen therapy are important to reduce the risk of severe disease.
Hu Bijie, director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Zhongshan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University, also said that according to clinical observations, the symptoms of secondary infection are generally milder than those of the first infection, mainly manifested as fever and sore throat.
Overall, a significant recovery in the coronavirus pandemic is less likely at this stage. While "yang" is no longer intimidating, it doesn't mean it's okay to sit back and relax.
In the post-new crown period, we need to insist on health protection for individuals, and also rely on the continuous promotion of vaccine and drug research and development, not "fear of crowns" or "light crowns", which is our confidence to calmly deal with the virus and the long new crown.