"Reconcile" with Japan and "one-sidedness" with the United States, what is South Korea's calculation?

Source: Overseas Network

【Rider Island Press】

Two days ago, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited South Korea, and the two countries resumed "shuttle diplomacy" after 12 years and promoted "Korea-Japan reconciliation"; Last month, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue visited the United States, and Korean media directly pointed out that "strengthening the ROK-US alliance has become the first diplomatic principle of the South Korean government." Before visiting the United States, Yin Xiyue even said that "the Taiwan Strait issue has become a global issue."

How do you view South Korea's recent foreign policy developments? How will these changes affect the situation in Northeast Asia and the world? Xia Kedao interviewed Zheng Jiyong, director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue (Source: Foreign media)

1. Xia Kejima: All parties are now very concerned about the "reconciliation" that South Korea and Japan are recently advancing. After all, due to colonial rule, comfort women and other issues, South Korea and Japan have a deep grudge. As a result, South Korean President Yoon Seok-hyeol said that "the two countries must get rid of 'future cooperation cannot be advanced without reckoning with history'", which caused a lot of debate in South Korea. What do you think of this interaction between Korea and Japan?

Zheng Jiyong: It should be said that Yin Xiyue and his ruling team have obvious pro-Japanese tendencies. Yoon Seok-yue's growing up environment is closely related to Japan, and the current head of the South Korean National Security Office, Kim Tae-hyo, and others also have a certain pro-Japanese complex. The Korean neoconservatives represented by them not only strongly doubt the policy direction of the progressives, but also dissatisfied with the past conservatives' failure to truly resolve the entanglement between South Korea and Japan, so as soon as they take office, they will "change the sky" policy.

There was originally a certain pro-Japanese element in the public opinion base in South Korea, but due to the anti-Japanese tendencies of progressives and the history of South Korea's colonial rule by Japan, this public opinion has not been hidden. Now that some people dare to say things that are different from the past, and many young Koreans do not have much sense of history, the actual behavior has begun to shift.

Most importantly, the United States has promoted the improvement of South Korea-Japan relations through inducement, high pressure and other means. The United States wants to use the Taiwan Strait and other issues to accelerate the containment of China, and if South Korea and Japan are not united and cannot achieve military and security cooperation, the United States will have many strategic ties in the future. Therefore, from the perspective of the United States, it is preferable to let South Korea and Japan "reconcile" as soon as possible.

2, Xia Ke Island: Yoon Seok-yue visited the United States and signed the Washington Declaration, which some public opinion said confirmed that South Korea had tied itself to the American chariot. Is it true that the ROK-US alliance has "upgraded on a nuclear basis" and that South Korea has received a "nuclear umbrella", as the South Korean side claims? How to evaluate the South Korean government's policy orientation towards the United States?

Jung Jiyong: South Korea's diplomacy has always been subject to the North Korean nuclear issue. Now South Korea wants to get rid of this stereotype and emphasize that it is a "global country" by participating in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait issues and even NATO activities. South Korea may believe that by participating in the U.S. "containment" of China and exerting counterpressure on China from the perspective of global issues, it can use this as a diplomatic bargaining chip to force China to help solve the North Korean nuclear issue and other problems facing South Korea. This is the deep logic of the ROK's recent policy orientation towards the United States.

Moreover, the Yin government may also have a belief that the Western camp will win. When the socialist camp suffered serious setbacks in the 90s, South Korea felt that North Korea was about to collapse and China was not doing well, and this judgment continues to this day.

On the North Korean nuclear issue, South Korea is exhausted by the involvement, and wants to "use nuclear weapons" by sharing US nuclear assets and even clamoring for its own nuclear weapons, claiming that it has a US "nuclear umbrella" to deter North Korea and demonstrate its military strength, which is the goal that the Yoon government wants to achieve. But in fact, the United States cannot allow South Korea to possess nuclear weapons, and the decision on nuclear use remains with the United States. The United States provided South Korea with so-called "nuclear protection" through the Washington Declaration to show the outside world the stability of the U.S.-ROK alliance, which is just a bluff.

3. Xia Kejima: Since the Yin government came to power, it has been pro-American, while advocating cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan, and has openly declared that "the Taiwan issue is a global issue." What impact will these developments have on Northeast Asia and the world?

Zheng Jiyong: The Yoon government's advocacy of ROK-US-Japan cooperation, and even breaking through the red line on China's reunification and territorial integrity when China and South Korea established diplomatic relations, has a very negative impact on the situation in Northeast Asia and the Taiwan Strait.

The first is to break the balance of conventional military power for Northeast Asian security. After the end of the Korean War, although there were many possible military conflicts on the peninsula, they were suppressed by the military demarcation line and the military and security forces of the North and the South, and now this containment has become unbalanced. South Korea's obvious pro-American stance, including its foreign and security policies, may trigger East Asian countries to "choose sides."

In particular, once other countries see that South Korea has actually benefited or received little punishment for doing so, they may feel that "taking sides" is a feasible way to play a reverse demonstration effect, which will seriously undermine regional security and stability.

The ROK side has repeatedly mentioned the Taiwan issue and the situation in the Taiwan Strait on occasions such as the US-ROK summit talks, which not only encourages the arrogance of "Taiwan independence," but may also encourage Japan to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue, forming a "wolf pack effect," as if there would be no problem as long as it "went together." This, of course, will be detrimental to China's core interests. Therefore, we have also seen the Ministry of Foreign Affairs protest, warning the countries concerned that they must clearly understand the essence of the Taiwan issue and must not go further and further down the wrong and dangerous road.

4. Xia Kejiao: South Korea's opposition parties, media and all parties in society have expressed concern about these policy trends of the Yoon Seok-yue government, and some Korean media have even called him a "new Cold War promoter". What do you think of these voices inside Korea?

Jung Jiyong: It is true that the foreign policy of the Yoon government is controversial in South Korea, and there is no shortage of criticism even within the ruling National Power Party. All sides are debating whether South Korea should follow the path of "values diplomacy" or choose pragmatic economic diplomacy. South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin said that while pursuing economic cooperation with China was not ruled out, China was required to meet South Korea's "values" and "international norms" in order to play a "responsible role." This absurd statement is also opposed by many people in South Korea.

Militarily, some South Koreans believe that South Korea's current policy could repeat the mistakes of the Korean War or even enter into a military conflict with China. Once the situation in the Taiwan Strait changes, South Korea's deep involvement will surely cost the country a huge price. During Yoon Seok-yue's visit to the United States, a survey by a South Korean polling agency showed that the South Korean people's poor evaluation rate of the Yoon government's governance was as high as 63%.

Many people of insight in South Korea believe that the "Inflation Reduction Act" and "Chip and Science Act" of the United States have hit South Korean companies, and the "leak door" has once again exposed the United States' eavesdropping and surveillance of South Korea. South Korea is so persistently pro-American, but it has not gained any practical benefits, but has just stamped itself with the "latest model ally of the United States". Is it worth it, is it a blessing or a curse? Time will tell.

Writing/dotting the sky

Editor/Ayanami

Source/Xia Ke Island WeChat public account