This article was compiled from: The Athletic
Written by John Hollinger
原标题：Do Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and the Suns have a math problem?
What should the Suns do with the first defeat? Data expert John Hollinger posted 4 shots from the G1 to analyze the Suns' current predicament: the mid-pitch was originally the team's strongest weapon, but now it has become a double-edged sword. Big data website FiveThirtyEight is more bullish on the Nuggets to turn the overall score to 2-0. At present, in the G2 game, the Nuggets have a 70% probability of winning, and the Suns only 30%.
The Suns' three-point shooting ratio is too low
At halftime in G1, the Suns should have felt good because they shot 55 percent from the field, but looking at the score, they were already 17 points behind.
Solar goals, except that the vast majority of their goals are counted as two points, not three. The Suns made just five three-pointers in the entire half, which is a ridiculous number on a basketball court in 2023. The data shows that in this year's playoffs, the average number of three-point shots per team per game is about 35, which means that the average number of half-time shots is about 17.5!
In terms of three-point shots, the Suns are well below the league average. In the first-round series against the Clippers, the Suns averaged 23.6 three-pointers per game, a third less than the league average (27.2 percent of Suns' shooting was three-pointers, compared to 39.2 percent for the league as a whole). Against the Nuggets' G1, the Suns made 23 final three-point shots, seven of which came from the final five minutes of garbage time.
The Suns' near-obsession with mid-range shooting lies in the fact that Durant, Booker and Paul are among the league's top mid-range shooters. As a central striker, Ayton also likes to shoot from mid-range. Regular season stats show Durant shooting 54 percent from the field, Booker 51 percent, and Ayton and Paul each with 48 percent.
The Suns often miss three-point chances
In the first round to the Clippers, the Suns didn't have to shoot a three-point shot to win. They carried this style of play to the series against the Nuggets, and it didn't work so well. This team No. 1 in the West is not afraid of the Suns' mid-range attack. There are only two points for one goal. Take a look at the following 4 shots -
Shot 1: Durant shows up in the bottom corner and reaches out, but Ayton chooses to make a mid-range throw. Change teams, and there is a high probability that it will be passed to teammates in the bottom corner.
Shot 2: Ayton attacks the inside under the opponent's defense, and finally attacks the interference ball and does not score. Booker in the bottom corner was also a big open position, kept raising his hand, but did not get a pass.
Shot 3: This was supposed to be an Okogi three-point opportunity from the bottom corner, but Durant's pass was too light, resulting in the opportunity being missed.
Shot 4: Durant once again passed too softly, so that Paul could not catch the ball immediately from outside the three-point line, and the opponent was close to the defense, Paul could only force the shot and missed.
Denver prefers to have Durant go to the passing organization, and the data shows that he is not as good at scoring as he is at scoring. In the G1 game, Durant only had 1 assist in the game, but made 7 turnovers. The Nuggets were effective on his defense. The Suns lost 18 points on 16 turnovers, while the Nuggets conceded just seven of their 10 turnovers.
The Suns need to consider their math the most, whether shooting two more and three fewer points will keep them passive in this series. However, to shoot three more points, it is not so easy for the Suns. The Nuggets aren't the Clippers who lost Pepper, and they have quite a few wing defenders who can better limit the Suns' three-point shooting.
In addition, in terms of control of rebounds and turnovers, the Suns also lagged significantly behind the Nuggets in G1. Can they make adjustments in G2 and take back a city?