On April 17, the navies of South Korea, the United States, and Japan held a trilateral joint exercise in international waters off South Korea's east coast that focused on procedures for detecting, tracking, and sharing information on North Korea's incoming ballistic missiles. At the same time, South Korea and the United States also launched another bilateral exercise involving nearly 110 fighter jets on April 17, which will last until April 28.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"This exercise does have anti-missile content, because there are the US Burke III destroyer and the South Korean THAAD system, which can be activated for anti-missile, and it can also strike land, air, sea and so on." First, maintain a state of high pressure on North Korea so that it enters a defensive state, not an offensive state; The second is to force North Korea to abandon missile tests; The third is to test combat capability in various states. ”
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"This kind of exercise of the United States, mainly with military allies such as South Korea or Japan, in addition to the US troops stationed in South Korea, there are many forces to deter North Korea from the sea direction and air direction, so it is an integrated land, sea and air exercise." First, a large number of troops was formed; Second, there are many spatial dimensions of containment. North Korea's vigilance will also increase, and its countermeasures may also increase. ”
01
North Korea has shown a tough attitude towards the escalating threat from the United States and South Korea. On April 18, Kim Jong-un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, inspected the National Space Development Agency of North Korea, during which Kim Jong-un made a speech saying that the United States and South Korea are still trying to expand military threats and provocations against North Korea, that the development of reconnaissance capabilities is a priority to deal with "threats" from the United States and South Korea, and that North Korea needs several satellites to firmly establish its intelligence gathering capability and preemptively use corresponding military forces in light of the overall situation.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"North Korea's public launch of satellites is, on the one hand, indeed developing its own space information, space reconnaissance and various means of satellite use. On the other hand, launching satellites, like launching launch vehicles, can reduce the sensitivity of developing nuclear launch vehicles through the news of launching satellites. ”
Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"We know that the development of delivery vehicles and the launch of atomic bombs must be linked to the development of satellites at a certain time, because without satellites, then become blind and deaf, and then launch atomic warheads, the range should reach more than 5,000 kilometers, 7,500 kilometers or even more than 10,000 kilometers, without satellites for navigation, the effect is unimaginable."
On March 13, 2023, the United States and South Korea restarted the theater-level field mobile joint exercise "Freedom Shield" for the first time in five years, which lasted for 11 days in the form of simulated actual combat.
The day before the exercise began, the North Korean military held a special meeting to analyze and judge the US-ROK military exercises, and finally decided to adopt more powerful and offensive deterrent means to deal with the threat of the United States and South Korea, and used the "8.24 Hero" submarine to launch two strategic cruise missiles on the same day.
Zhang Liangui, professor of the Institute of International Strategic Studies of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China:
"This exercise is characterized by all-round and large-scale, such as missile interception, landing exercises, air force control, occupation of North Korea, and the disposal of some nuclear facilities after the occupation. These exercises fully reflect the problem that the United States has become increasingly tough on the North Korean nuclear issue, and when the Biden administration came to power, he made it clear that he did not rule out any option in order to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, suggesting that the United States would use force if necessary. ”
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"North Korea means that its submarines can first attack, and then can properly do a certain amount of stealth, then they can carry out relevant attacks, which shows that its long-range attack ability and penetration ability are relatively strong." Such an ability is something that the United States, Japan or South Korea fear. ”
02
In the early 90s of last century, the United States and North Korea first triggered a crisis over the North Korean nuclear issue, and then signed the Agreed Framework on the Settlement of the North Korean Nuclear Issue in 1994, which temporarily eased the crisis, but the two sides soon entered a rhythm from tension to relaxation to tension.
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"This is a double standard and untrustworthy statement by the United States, because why can't North Korea test missiles, or test certain weapons, but Japan can?" In addition, when the United States and North Korea engage in bilateral exchanges, the United States asks North Korea to unilaterally make some commitments, but the United States does not take a step forward and does not meet each other halfway. Therefore, North Korea constantly consumes itself or destroys its martial arts, while the United States does not take any action, which shows that it is another double standard. ”
In 2018, North Korea hoped to make concessions in exchange for peace and ensure a stable development environment for the country, and the United States and North Korea took advantage of the trend to start the summit diplomatic process to promote the easing of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Military expert Cao Weidong:
At that time, North Korea put forward the condition that if the United States and South Korea did not conduct relevant military exercises around North Korea and did not threaten North Korea, then North Korea could no longer conduct relevant nuclear tests, and also made clear its attitude and blew up a nuclear test site in front of the media.
But the second time, the talks between the two sides of the "Kim Summit" collapsed, because the United States proposed to the DPRK that it would hand over all nuclear weapons to the United States, and the United States would destroy them and dismiss all the scientists. Such conditions were not possible, negotiations were fruitless, and the United States continued to conduct related military exercises with South Korea around North Korea. ”
In March 2022, Yoon Seok-hyeol was elected the 20th president of South Korea, abandoning the balanced foreign policy of South Korea and the "sunshine policy" towards North Korea under Moon Jae-in and turning to the United States across the board.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
In his speech at the ceremony marking the 77th anniversary of the liberation in 2022, South Korean President Yoon Seok-hyeol mentioned the roadmap for North Korea policy, saying that if North Korea takes substantial denuclearization measures, South Korea will help North Korea improve its economic situation and residents' quality of life in an epoch-making way.
However, in fact, South Korea's 'sunshine policy' towards North Korea has changed, and the more typical is that South Korea mentioned in the "2023 Reunification White Paper" released in April this year, directly and unabashedly directly blamed North Korea for the tension on the Korean Peninsula and the interruption of North-South exchanges. ”
Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in and current President Yoon, the stance against North Korea is one in the sky and one in the ground. Moon Jae-in has greatly contributed to the easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula and to the promotion of rapprochement between North Korea and the United States. President Yoon has fully defected to the United States, and his views on North Korea and his analysis of tensions on the Korean Peninsula are all American scripts, trying to subdue North Korea with the powerful American military machine. ”
03
Recently, Yoon Seok-yue followed the pace of the United States, promoted South Korea to actively join regional multilateral organizations led by the United States, and clearly strengthened trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan to support the "Indo-Pacific strategy" of the United States.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"South Korea is now strengthening trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, joining the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, joining the NATO cyber defense system, etc., in order to show its status as a world-class country and have its own say in major international occasions." At the same time, it also has other goals, such as one of its strategic objectives, which is to surpass Japan and surpass China, and lay the foundation for the future reunification of the Korean Peninsula in the international environment. ”
According to Korean media reports, from April 11 to 12, South Korea and the United States held a meeting of the United Nations Defense Consultation Mechanism in Washington, D.C., and the United States will further enhance its ability to implement extended deterrence, while further strengthening cooperation between the two countries in space, defense science and technology and other fields.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"The so-called extended threat is one of the nuclear strategies of the United States, which means that the United States' nuclear deterrent is not only used to protect the homeland, but also to extend the scope of protection when allies are threatened by nuclear attack." Since the beginning of this year, North Korea has continuously tested new missiles, publicly demonstrated combat nuclear warheads and underwater strategies for the first time, and based on its own security considerations, South Korea has urged the United States to substantially fulfill its commitment to extend the threat. ”
Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"I think the message that the United States wants to send now is that if there is another war on the Korean Peninsula, it will be a global, all-round, air-space, sea-diving five-dimensional deployment together."
04
Just as the United States and South Korea met, North Korea conducted the first test launch of a new Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile. Because the appearance of the missile launcher is very similar to the Russian "Topol"-M solid intercontinental missile, it is known as the North Korean version of the "Topol"-M. Kim Jong-un expressed satisfaction with the results of the test launch.
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"The 'Mars Cannon-18' has some major differences from the 'Hwasong-17', mainly its fuel is solid fuel, because the use of liquid fuel will corrode the projectile after filling, it needs to be shot out in a short time, and the use of solid fuel, it is no problem for a year or two after refilling, you can put it on the car, pull it everywhere to swim."
There are many mountains in North Korea, so it is hidden in the mountains or woods, and it is difficult to spot it. Therefore, North Korea believes that both missiles launched in silos that hit far and have multiple warheads, as well as missiles that are flexible and have a relatively strong survival rate, will raise their counterattack capability to a higher level, and the United States will dare not take action against them. Once hands-on, these weapons are fired. ”
Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Globalization Think Tank:
"In the past, the United States thought that North Korean missiles could reach Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, but now the message from North Korea is that it can hit the United States mainland even further. I think North Korea has reached this point, it has become a nuclear-weapon state that the United States cannot ignore. ”
On April 14, the U.S. Air Force again sent B-52H strategic bombers to the Korean Peninsula to participate in a joint air exercise between South Korea and the United States. South Korea's Defense Ministry said that South Korea and the United States held a joint air exercise over the peninsula on the same day, and the US Air Force B-52H strategic bombers participated in the exercise with US F-16 fighters, South Korean Air Force F-35A stealth fighters and F-15K fighters. This is the second time that the US B-52H has flown to the peninsula in nine days, and it is also the third time it has appeared on the peninsula since the beginning of this year.
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"The United States wants the situation on the peninsula to heat up, because the situation on the peninsula will be beneficial to the United States, which will make South Korea and Japan more afraid of North Korea, and their two military allies can unite, which is in line with the intention of the United States."
Third, the situation on the peninsula is completely created, because the United States is playing up the threat of North Korea, conducting military exercises, and provoking North Korea. ”
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"North Korea and South Korea are showing their advantages, South Korea has advantages in conventional forces, North Korea has advantages in nuclear weapons, and they both want to use their advantages to force each other not to use force easily." North Korea believes that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is the trigger for the explosion, which is actually a language often used by the North Korean media, but it does warn the other side that the slightest carelessness may become the trigger for war. ”
According to KCNA, North Korea accused the United States and South Korea of escalating tensions to the "brink of nuclear war" through joint military exercises, and promised to respond with "offensive actions", perhaps the bayonet will see red again in the near future, after all, the two sides are only truce.
Military expert Wang Yunfei:
"An armistice is not essentially an end-of-war agreement, nor is it a peace agreement. Therefore, in a legal sense, there is still the possibility of continuing the war without one side declaring war, and war can occur at any time. ”
Military expert Cao Weidong:
"Since it is an armistice agreement, whether there will be a new war depends entirely on the attitude of the two sides, or the military strength of both sides."
The Korean Peninsula is in the most unstable atmosphere in the past five years, and the indefinite convergence between South Korea, the United States and Japan has deepened the hostility between the regimes in the South and the North of the Korean Peninsula, and hopes for peace talks have become increasingly elusive. However, security concerns everyone on the Korean peninsula, north and south, East Asia as a whole and beyond, and all parties have the responsibility and obligation to maintain peace.
Producer: Wang Ruixue
Director: Yi Yan
Editor: Li Weifan