Pictured is Syrsky
In this issue, the Kremlin said that the Ukrainian army was panicking on the front, and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army admitted that the front line was deteriorating, what happened?
Ukraine is about to run out of money, this is not my personal words, but the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, said it himself. On April 28, local time, Syrsky said that the situation on the front line "has deteriorated", and under the powerful offensive of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army had to retreat to the defense line further west and lost some territory.
This is not the first time Syrsky has made such pessimistic statements, and on the 27th he said that the Ukrainian army's operations on the front line have been difficult. Under these circumstances, the morale of the soldiers on the front line is now low. According to Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said in a recent interview, panic on the front line of the Ukrainian army is intensifying, he said that this is very important for Russia, and the most important thing for the Russian army to do at the moment is not to stop and continue to strengthen the offensive against the Ukrainian army.
At present, Ukraine as a whole is already in a very unfavorable state, the "balance of strength" and "local advantage" shown by the Ukrainian army in the past two years have basically been lost, and the "offensive and defensive balance" between Russia and Ukraine is being quickly broken. So, what exactly happened to make this situation happen in Ukraine, which has been fighting against Russia for two years?
The picture shows the Russian-Ukrainian front
We can analyze this problem from three aspects. The first is that Western aid has declined, leading to a shortage of weapons. The main reason why Ukraine was able to withstand the powerful offensive of the Russian army at the beginning of the war is that it has received a lot of assistance from NATO, in the first year alone, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with more than 150 billion euros of support, and assisted a large number of advanced weapons and equipment, and also provided a lot of intelligence support.
With such strong support, Ukraine has the ability to wrestle with Russia, and launched a massive counteroffensive against the Russian army last summer, but it backfired, and Russia withstood the offensive. At the same time, the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict involved a lot of energy in the United States, the attention of Western countries shifted to the Middle East, and assistance to Ukraine began to decrease.
The picture shows Zelensky
Russia, on the other hand, relied on the support of its huge arsenal to wage a war of attrition with Ukraine. When external support is less than battlefield attrition, the Ukrainian army's weapons and equipment gradually tend to be in short supply. Some time ago, Zelensky also shouted to Western countries, saying that the Ukrainian army's ammunition use on the front line is only one-tenth of that of the Russian army, and if no assistance is provided, it will be quickly defeated.
However, the United States has just passed a nearly $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine, and British Prime Minister Sunak recently announced the largest aid to the Ukrainian army in history, including a large amount of weapons and equipment and 500 million pounds in funds. Led by the United States and the United Kingdom, Australia also recently announced that it will provide $100 million worth of aid to Ukraine, and more from the West is likely to come in the coming period.
NATO saw the unfavorable situation faced by the Ukrainian army, so at this critical moment, another wave of strong blood transfusions was carried out, and the assistance was also very large, but it is not possible to say whether it can completely reverse the situation on the battlefield, because at present, the Russian army has gained the strategic initiative and won some important areas, and the overall strategic advantage of the front line has been grasped by the Russian army, which can no longer be recovered by a large amount of weapons assistance alone.
The picture shows Shoigu
At the same time, the shortage of personnel in the Ukrainian army is already significant. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, since the outbreak of the conflict, the Ukrainian army has lost nearly 500,000 people, although there may be exaggeration, but from the continuous outbreak of forced conscription in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian government has repeatedly changed the conscription decree, the Ukrainian army is facing a more serious shortage of soldiers.
According to British media reports, some senior Ukrainian officials privately admit that it is difficult for them to carry out further mobilization now, and there are not many citizens in Ukraine who can be conscripted into the army, and about 300,000 people abroad are eligible, but these people are not willing to return to China, because they are all going abroad for the purpose of refusing military service.
Therefore, although the United States and the West have launched a new round of aid, and there will be no shortage of weapons and equipment in a short period of time, if the problem of insufficient troops cannot be solved, it will be difficult to reverse the disadvantage.
Finally, the Russian army is now in high morale, with sufficient soldiers and no shortage of weapons and equipment. Since the beginning of this year, the Russian army has changed its tactics and began to use the advantages of numbers and weapons to organize an offensive on all fronts, and gain advantages, especially in the Donetsk region.
The picture shows Avdeyevka after the war
According to a British military expert, there has been panic in Western countries since the Russian army took Avdeyevka on February 17. Originally, NATO hoped that the Ukrainian army could stabilize the front line here, and Ukraine has also made a lot of preparations, and at the same time, Avdeyevka has already been built into a strong military fortress by the Ukrainian army, and has also established multiple defense lines, Ukraine believes that this can withstand at least a while, but the speed of the Russian army's breakthrough through the defense line is completely beyond their expectations.
At present, the Russian army is concentrating its forces, steadily advancing from many places, and continuing to bomb Ukraine's rear infrastructure. According to the latest war report released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, in the past few weeks, the Russian army has carried out more than 30 combined attacks on the Ukrainian army.
Judging from the recent offensive of the Russian army and the latest wave of Western aid to Ukraine, there is quite a momentum of Armageddon between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, Sersky said that the Russian army may launch a full-scale offensive against the Ukrainian army in May or June, judging from the recent actions of the Russian army, it seems that it is also preparing to take some strategic points, and the facilities in the rear of Ukraine have been almost destroyed, and several important supply lines of the Ukrainian army have also been cut off, which is indeed like a preparatory action before launching a general offensive.
Pictured is Putin
It is not difficult to see that the next Russian-Ukrainian battlefield will be more bloody, and a large amount of assistance from the United States and the West will only exacerbate the sacrifices on the front line, and the impact on the battlefield situation may not be great. The possibility of the Russian army launching a summer offensive is still very high, because for Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict can no longer be delayed, which is also a primary goal of Putin in the new term.
As the saying goes: "One blow, then decline, three and exhaustion." "In the war that lasted for two years, the Ukrainian army has lost the initiative on the battlefield, and the shortage of weapons cannot be used as the main reason for the unfavorable situation, the most important thing is that the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive has gradually been thwarted, and the front line has been constantly defeated, resulting in low morale, and there is also panic, when this bad mood appears in an army, it means that the army is not far from a complete rout.