Since July, the volatility of the commodity market has increased significantly, especially for black commodities, which has come out of a round of extreme price increases.
Affected by the tight supply, the price of coking coal has risen sharply, and the spot price is even higher than the medium- and long-term contract price of coal by more than 100%; at the same time, the soaring price of coking coal has also driven the price of coke to rise for ten consecutive rounds; the price of thermal coal has continued to reach a new high, and the current price has exceeded the 1,000 yuan mark.
As a major coal producer, the soaring price of coal has also brought a series of industry contradictions. Due to the sharp rise of coking coal, even if the price of coke continues to rise, the profit of coke once lost 300 yuan / ton. Recently, the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association suggested that in response to this kind of soaring price chaos, coal upstream and downstream enterprises should maintain sufficient vigilance, and relevant departments have also repeatedly intervened to ensure stable prices.
It is worth noting that due to the linkage effect of futures stocks, the recent stock market cycle stocks have also risen continuously, and the trend of "black three brothers" has not only become the focus of the commodity market, but also a hot spot in the stock market.
Due to the steel industry production restrictions led to a sharp drop in demand for iron ore, another major force of the black system, iron ore prices fell all the way, from a high of 1150 yuan / ton to 690 yuan / ton, and port inventories hit a new high in more than 4 months. The sharp decline in iron ore prices has made steel mill profits expand, and many listed steel companies are expected to deliver eye-catching three quarterly reports.
What is the current status of the coal spot market? How to view the extreme market of black products? Can the imbalance between supply and demand and the increase in the price of coal be alleviated in the fourth quarter? Recently, the Securities Times reporter conducted a multi-party survey to try to answer the above topics of market concern.
Behind the "Three Black Brothers" surge: supply disturbances superimpose strong demand
Coking coal is undoubtedly the star variety of the recent commodity market. Since July 9, the main contract price of coking coal futures has risen from 1800 yuan / ton. At the end of August, a strange name called "Ganqi Maodu" pushed the price increase of coking coal to a climax.
It is understood that the Ganqimaodu port is the most important port for China to import Mongolian coal, and half of the coking coal imported from Mongolia is cleared here. On August 24, due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, the Ganqimaodu port received a notice to suspend coal imports from Mongolia for two weeks, which exacerbated the market's concerns about the tight supply of coking coal, and the price of coking coal continued to rise sharply.
On September 10, coking coal rose to a maximum of 3099 yuan / ton, an increase of 72% in just 2 months, constantly refreshing the record high. The spot price of coking coal rose even more, taking the main coking coal (Inner Mongolia) as an example, its price rose from 1850 yuan / ton on July 10 to 3450 yuan / ton on September 14, an increase of 86% during the period. At present, the spot price of coking coal has been higher than the medium- and long-term contract price of coal by more than 100%.
Cai Yongzheng, president of the Fushi Data Research Institute, which focuses on the research of the black industry chain, told reporters that the rise in coking coal prices is mainly due to the restriction of Australian coal imports, the reduction of Mongolian coal imports affected by the epidemic, and the tight supply caused by the strict safety rectification in Shanxi this year, and the price continues to rise. At the same time, this year's coking industry capacity replacement is coming to an end, and the demand for high-quality and low-sulfur main coking coal in new coke ovens has increased significantly, while the market resources of high-quality and low-sulfur main coking coal are limited, and imports are reduced, thus once again promoting a sharp rise in coking coal prices.
"Under the situation of tight coking coal resources, the cost of coke production continues to rise, while the coking industry in some regions limits production, which has intensified the rise in coke prices in the recent National Day long holiday steel mill replenishment stage, and coke has risen for ten consecutive rounds."
According to the statistics of the Chinese reporter of the securities company, the main contract price of coke futures rose from 2400 yuan / ton to 3847 yuan / ton, during which the increase reached 60%. Although coke prices have also risen continuously, the profits of the coke industry have been declining. Entering September, the profit of the coke industry began to turn negative, and on September 8, a loss of 360 yuan / ton was reached.
Xiao Feng of the Shanxi Pengfei Coking Futures Department told the Chinese reporter of the securities company that the current spot price of coking coal and coke has gradually peaked, one is the auction pricing of coking coal, and the number of flow auctions has increased significantly, especially in these two days; second, traders do not hoard goods and do not sell as before, but successively ship goods to cash in, and high-priced coal has signs of falling back at a high level; third, coking plants and steel mills have been reducing production one after another due to environmental pressure, and the tight supply trend of coking coal will also improve, unlike before there is money that cannot buy coking coal, and at present, money can definitely buy goods.
"Coke is also easing because of the environmental protection and production limitation of steel mills, and it is expected that the supply will begin to accumulate." Overall, the short-term supply of coking coal and coke is still disturbed by supply, but it is disturbed by demand for a long time, speculation and hoarding are significantly reduced, and prices are expected to gradually peak and fall. Xiao Feng said.
The thermal coal market has been in the off-season since mid-to-late August, and prices have continued to rise. As of September 15, the price of thermal coal futures has broken through the 1,000 yuan mark, and the price has soared by 37% in the past month.
Industrial Futures analyst Wei Ying said that the tightening of the safety supervision situation in the production area before the National Day has made the implementation of the policy of ensuring the supply and increasing production of thermal coal clouded by uncertainties, and the advance of the winter storage behavior in the north has strengthened the market's expectation of the continuation of the tight pattern of coal supply and demand, which together make the price of thermal coal still strong in the near future.
Some people in the coal spot industry told reporters that the supply is not up to expectations, and the demand is at a high level, which is the core reason for the recent continuous rise in coal prices. "At present, we can only solve the problem from the supply side, although we have done a lot of work before, but the effect is not ideal, and some deep-seated reasons should be known by the competent departments and must be determined to solve."
Be vigilant against coal price chaos, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be alleviated
It is worth noting that the soaring price of the "Black Three Brothers" has aroused the high attention of the exchange, and the two major exchanges have continuously raised the margin and fee to prevent market risk and overheating.
The Black Industry Group of the Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute said that after the introduction of the exchange policy, the recent bifocal has dropped sharply under the policy interference. At the same time, in addition to policy factors, the decline in demand has also given bifocal some pressure. Recently, coking limited production coking coal stocks have begun to accumulate. Coking production limit is mainly two regions, Shandong region due to environmental protection production limit requirements and annual coal consumption indicators are close to exhaustion, some coking production limit, while Jiangsu and other places energy consumption double control coking operating rate declined.
For the price chaos of coking coal, which is soaring and soaring, the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association has also recently suggested that upstream and downstream coal enterprises should maintain sufficient vigilance and adhere to the basis of signing medium- and long-term contracts to resist business risks and reduce price fluctuations.
Whether the imbalance between supply and demand and the price increase of coal can be alleviated in the fourth quarter has attracted much market attention. It is worth noting that the relevant departments have also repeatedly intervened to ensure stable prices. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to all localities and relevant enterprises to make arrangements for the full coverage of medium- and long-term coal contracts directly guaranteed by power generation and heating enterprises.
Liu Dongfeng, chief black researcher of Ping An Futures, believes that the contradiction between coal supply and demand in the fourth quarter may gradually ease, and the National Development and Reform Commission has accelerated the nuclear increase of open-pit coal mines and other production capacity, and it is expected that the release of coal production capacity will gradually accelerate. However, the absolute inventory of coal mines, ports and power plants is low, and the challenge of energy and electricity security in winter is still large. Overall, coal prices may slowly adjust downwards.
Cai Yongzheng said that from the perspective of the industry, first of all, it is difficult to loosen the policy pressure on production and control, and the probability of crude steel production this year will not exceed last year, and the overall supply will remain tight. On the demand side, infrastructure demand is expected to continue to next year under the impetus of special bonds and other funds, but real estate financing has not been loosened, and demand may be weaker than infrastructure demand; secondly, the fourth quarter still needs to observe the development of the epidemic. Overall, the fourth quarter may show a weak supply and relatively flat demand. Steel prices continue to rise, the downstream market is difficult to accept, the price downward and cost support, so the probability of maintaining range shocks is larger.
"The exchange's series of policies superimposed on the expectation of bifocal supply and demand marginal repair have released the market's fear of heights." However, at present, the fundamentals of less supply and more demand and low inventory of bifocal still exist, and if the problem of coal shortage is not solved one day, this supply and demand gap cannot be repaired for a day, so that the fundamentals of the contradiction between supply and demand make the bifocal support strong, and the possibility of resuming the shock market in the future is greater. South China futures analyst Xia Yingying said,
Stock period linkage sharp rise or near the end
On the one hand, the price of black futures has continued to rise, and on the other hand, the performance of related sectors of the stock market is eye-catching. Since the beginning of this year, the sharp rise in the linkage of stock periods has become a beautiful landscape in the market.
Wind data shows that as of September 15, the three industries with the largest year-to-date gains in A-shares are steel, coal and non-ferrous metals, with cumulative increases of 82.1%, 81.2% and 79.61% respectively. The coal sector has accelerated its rise since late August, rising as much as 42% in less than a month. Yanzhou Coal, Huayang Shares, Shaanxi Black Cat and other 15 individual stocks rose more than 100% during the year, and Yanzhou Coal occupied the top spot in the sector with a 241% increase.
Cai Yongzheng pointed out that the recent sharp rise in cyclical stocks is, on the one hand, the impact of the contraction of the supply side of the industry. For example, the steel industry energy consumption double control, crude steel production fell sharply, resulting in raw fuel, especially iron ore prices plummeted, even if the price of coal and coke rose, steel mill production costs also showed a downward trend, steel mill profits continued to expand. In addition, the market is bullish on cyclical stocks against the backdrop of global monetary easing, rising inflation and the macro impact of big infrastructure.
Since mid-July, the price of iron ore has fallen from a high of 1150 yuan / ton to 690 yuan / ton. The sharp decline in iron ore prices has made steel mill profits expand, and many listed steel companies are expected to deliver eye-catching three quarterly reports.
"At present, the control of the policy side has not been loosened and should be sustainable." However, it is worth noting that near the end of the year, the Federal Reserve continues to release the signal of balance sheet reduction, coupled with the rapid rise in raw fuel and freight prices this year, many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the pressure of too rapid rise in production costs, and the economy continues to grow or turn to stagflation, and the fourth quarter is also the stage of winter reserve materials for the steel industry, the pressure on cost has not been completely alleviated, and the demand has gradually turned into an off-season. Therefore, the market of cyclical stocks may come to an end and enter the stage of phased adjustment. Cai Yongzheng thought.
Liu Dongfeng believes that the recent cyclical stocks have risen significantly, and the maintenance of some commodity prices has triggered the valuation repair of cyclical stocks, and at present, from the perspective of price outlook, the reversal factors are not sufficient.
Xia Yingying also said that this year's commodity market is still in a pattern of easy to rise and fall in the future, especially some upstream energy-related commodities (such as natural gas, coal, crude oil, etc.), in the current traditional demand off-season, but still show a relatively tight state, to the winter demand season such a shortage may be further aggravated.
The three major futures exchanges have continuously cooled down, why does the market not fall but rise?
Recently, the previous period, Zheng Shang, and Dashang have continuously introduced trading control measures for some varieties, and the strength is rare in the past. However, the current round of cooling measures has a limited impact on the market, and the price of thermal coal futures has reached a new high, which has aroused widespread concern.
Black is tied to the focus of control
Black varieties are the focus of recent exchange control. On August 26, Zheng Shang took the lead in implementing trading limits for some contracts of thermal coal futures, stipulating that from the night trading hours on the night of August 27, the maximum number of non-futures company members or customers opening positions on the thermal coal futures 2109, 2110, 2111, 2112, 2201, 2202 and 2203 contracts in a single day is 200 lots. At the same time, it was also decided to adjust the trading margin standard of the thermal coal futures 2110, 2111, 2112 and 2201 contracts to 30% from the settlement time on September 3, and the trading margin standard of the thermal coal futures 2202 and 2203 contracts to 20%.
On September 2, the big commercial firm attacked coking coal and coke. Since the settlement on September 6, the margin level of speculative trading of coking coal and coke futures contracts has been adjusted from 11% to 15%, and the margin level of up-down stop-and-go board and hedging trading has remained unchanged at 8%. The next day, it was also decided that from the night of September 3, non-futures company members or customers should not open more than 100 positions in a single day on each month contract of coking coal and coke futures.
Also on September 2, Zheng Shang announced that from September 6, the maximum number of non-futures company members or customers to open a position in a single day on the ferrosilicon futures 2201 contract is 1,000 lots, and the maximum number of single-day open transactions on the manganese silicon futures 2201 contract is 2,000 lots.
On September 7, Dashang raised the fee rate of coking coal and coke-related contracts, and the handling fee rate of the 2110, 2111, 2112 and 2201 contracts was adjusted to 6/10,000 of the transaction amount, which was 2 to 6 times that before the adjustment. On the same day, the previous issue announced that since the night of September 13, the maximum number of non-futures company members and customers opening positions in the stainless steel SS2110 and SS2111 contracts during the day was 2,000 lots.
On September 10, the big commercial firms again regulated coking coal and coke. It was announced that the margin level for speculative trading of coke futures JM2110, JM2111, JM2112 and JM2201 contracts and coke futures J2110, J2111, J2112 and J2201 contracts will be adjusted from 15% to 20% from 14 September.
In just over half a month, the three major futures exchanges have launched a total of 8 restrictive measures for black varieties. According to statistics, for coking coal and coke varieties, dashang has issued a total of 5 notices of raising the deposit this year; Zhengshang has issued 6 notices of raising the margin for thermal coal varieties this year.
With the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, according to the practice, domestic futures exchanges will increase the range of futures contracts and the level of trading margin during the holiday period in accordance with the relevant provisions of the risk management measures, and relevant experts remind investors to maintain a rational trading mentality, pay attention to the security measures before the relevant festivals, pay attention to the management of positions and capital preparations, and prevent and control transaction risks.
Futures regulation is difficult to change the pattern of spot supply and demand
Despite frequent offers by the futures exchange, the market has not cooled down as scheduled. Thermal coal futures broke through the 1,000 yuan mark and hit a record high. The reason is that the main contradiction at present is in the spot market, so the actual impact of futures regulation is limited.
Wei Ying, a senior researcher at Industrial Futures, said that by raising the margin of the variety, the Futures Exchange has increased the scale of capital occupation involved in the futures trading of the corresponding varieties, which can reduce the willingness of speculative funds to participate in the trading of the variety to a certain extent, thereby weakening the kinetic energy of the extreme rise or fall of the futures price, in order to achieve the purpose of regulating the futures price and controlling the risk of futures trading. Counting the varieties of the three major exchanges that have frequently raised margins since 2021, most of them are basically varieties with sharp increases in futures prices.
However, judging from the results of the 2021 exchange's increase in the trading margin of coal and coke varieties, the increase in margin has not effectively inhibited the rise in the futures prices of these varieties. We believe that the reasons are as follows: (1) after the increase in margin, the transaction costs of both the long and short sides have increased, and the pressure of short pursuit is obviously greater than that of the bulls, which may lead to the bears being forced to leave the market, thereby accelerating the upward trend of futures prices; (2) the increase in margin has not substantially changed the supply and demand pattern of corresponding commodities, if the supply gap cannot be made up, the spot prices of commodities continue to rise, and the power of futures prices under the premium pattern is still strong. Therefore, in addition to raising the margin, the futures exchange will also take more stringent measures, such as strict position limits and window guidance, to curb market speculation and regulate futures prices. However, the inflection point of the market still needs to be guided by fundamental or expected changes. Wei Ying said.
South China Futures Metal Analyst Xia Yingying pointed out that in futures trading, margin can be regarded as a leverage, if the margin is low, then it is high leverage, which means that investors can use a small amount of funds to get a relatively large gain or loss, the risk is higher, the risk of blowing up or wearing a position is relatively large. Raising the margin means that the reduction of this trading leverage, so that traders use a relatively large amount of funds to trade, in the big rise or fall of the market, the more frequent increase in the margin can make the strength of the short or long be quickly weakened due to the lack of funds, change direction to reduce the number of speculation, thereby reducing the speculative heat of the market. Generally speaking, frequent margin increases may become an important signal that the market will "stabilize".
Editor-in-charge: Chen Shuyu