″... Capital is cruel. ”
In the first quarter of 2023, the film and television industry did not wait for the imaginary "signs of recovery".
Since the beginning of the year, many crews such as "Girls' School in the Mountains", "Flying Elephant" and "Hotpot Law God" have been rumored on the Internet that filming has been shelved or postponed. Although first-line actors such as Gong Jun, Wang Hedi, and Yuan Quan appeared in the online lineup of these crews, they still could not advance smoothly as scheduled. Since the end of 2022, crews such as "Shangyuan Jinxiu" and "Camp with Love" have also continued to break out suspected wage arrears on the Internet.
Hengdian, a town that once became popular due to the film and television industry, will also have its operating rate drop by nearly a third in 2023.
According to the official website of Hengdian Film and Television City, from March 9 to April 13, 2021, the number of Hengdian filming crews remained around 27-34. According to data on April 19, 2022, Hengdian has 36 filming crews. In 2023, from March 7 to April 11, the number of Hengdian filming crews will only remain about 20. From March 7 to March 14, the filming crew was the least, only 15, and more than half of them were low-cost online dramas and vertical screen dramas.
Recently, Entertainment Studio has spoken to a number of "horizontal drifters", producers and investors. A Hengpiao told Yuli that since 2022, Hengdian has become particularly few plays, and the average girl can only receive a maximum of 5-6 plays a month, and boys can receive more than a dozen. According to media reports, in 2020, you can shoot 7-8 scenes in one day.
A producer revealed that the original film and television industry invested in 10 projects, and one project could recover all the losses of the remaining 9 projects when it made money. However, after the epidemic, the market situation is more unstable, coupled with the increase in high-risk events in the film and television industry, it may lose money in 10 projects, which has led to the entire industry being very cautious.
One investor described the film and television market in 2023 as follows: "The depression of the film and television industry has been rolling down since 2017. The pandemic is just a booster, it has made the stone roll down faster, and it may reach its lowest point in 2023. ”
Screenshot from Weibo
Where did the notice go?
In mid-March 2023, Xiao Shu, a junior major in literature, was inspired by the short video of Hengdian Group and came to Hengdian alone to chase his film and television dreams. In her thoughts, she can make money and watch stars, why not?
She booked an eight-bed house for 500 yuan a month. From the owner of the homestay, Xiaoshu learned the method of becoming a Hengdian group performance - every Monday morning in a certain APP to grab the number of actor licenses, 50 boys and 25 girls. After grabbing the quota, you can go to the actor's union to apply for an actor card.
In the first week, Xiaoshu grabbed a spot with his own hand speed. After successfully registering for an actor certificate, Xiaoshu was pulled into a girls' group WeChat group, and there were about 60-70 people in the group. The people in charge of recruiting group performers are called group leaders, and they usually send out pre-registration notices at 7 p.m., and those who want to go will grab places in the group, and at 10 p.m., they will announce the confirmed candidates.
Xiaoshu's path as an actor was not as smooth as expected. From mid-March to early April, her group sent out only five announcements, with only 3-4 people at a time. In the past half a month, Xiaoshu has only grabbed one game, and his salary is 105 yuan after deducting 10 yuan of actor union dues.
When there is no drama, she can only lie in the homestay and wait for a place. Xiaoshu will set the alarm clock at 6:49 every day. But the head of the group sometimes sends an announcement in advance, more than 70 people grab it together, and the quota is gone in a few seconds. Once, the head of the group sent an announcement in the group at four o'clock in the morning that a girl was needed immediately, and some people replied in seconds.
Image source Weibo @Hengdian Film and Television City, has nothing to do with this article, is only for display
In her free time, she wanted to go out and play, but found that in addition to the cheap rent, Hengdian had other consumption levels comparable to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Two days ago, she wanted to watch the movie "Journey to the Bell Buds" and found that the movie ticket also cost more than 50 yuan a piece. If you want to leave Hengdian, you must take a leave of absence at a fixed time period, otherwise you will be kicked out of the group and removed from the actor's guild. Therefore, many actors like Xiaoshu who did not have a scene did not dare to leave, and could only lie down every day. Some people lie down, and even "mental problems" -
When Xiaoshu first moved to the homestay, a roommate had been lying for five months without much play, and he didn't even bring winter clothes. When we first started chatting, she didn't notice anything out of the ordinary. As a result, after the roommate answered a call, she suddenly began to break down and cry, dragging her and saying, "Someone is manipulating me behind my back." The next day, the roommate left after being complained by several other roommates.
Relatively diligent group performers will pick up part-time jobs, but in order to see the actor information posted in the group at any time, they dare not accept takeaways, couriers and other jobs that need to be busy. Xiaoshu's other roommate took over a manual job that could be done in the dormitory and earned 25 yuan a day.
In mid-April, Xiaoshu's rent expired, and she did not plan to renew it. Some people persuaded her that there would be more drama later, but she was worried that if she lay down like this, sooner or later she would become the roommate with "mental problems".
"It's good to lie flat and see the stars once in a while, but I don't like to lie flat. This month, I also entered the crew once, saw how it was operated behind the scenes, and it was worth it, and I could experience it once. ”
Image source Weibo @Hengdian Film and Television City, has nothing to do with this article, is only for display
In Hengdian, "no drama to film" is not only the new Hengdrift.
Lao Wang, who has been working hard in Hengdian since 2012, set up a casting company in 2016, mainly undertaking the recommendation of group actors, special contracts, prospects and other actors.
In Lao Wang's impression, before 2019, Hengdian basically had 40-70 long-term drama crews every month, and group performances even had several crews running back and forth. Since 2019, the long-term drama crew in Hengdian has gradually decreased by nearly 90%. After the epidemic, the company's monthly business has been reduced to single digits. In order to stay afloat, he had to reduce the number of company personnel from five to just himself.
Lao Wang told Entertainment Studio that in the Hengdian crew now, small-cost vertical screen dramas with a cost between 100,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan account for half. These short dramas can often be filmed within 10 days, but in mini programs, they are paid to watch them in the form of a few yuan per episode. Because this kind of vertical screen drama tends to have a fast plot rhythm, it will attract many middle-aged and elderly groups to watch, and it often costs tens to hundreds of dollars to watch the entire drama.
At present, Lao Wang's business focus has shifted to the casting of these vertical screen dramas, as well as some evening promotional videos. Every day, he will release the opening ceremony of four or five vertical screen dramas in the circle of friends, and in the eyes of outsiders, Hengdian seems to be as hot as before.
An online drama launched in Hengdian on April 6, the source Weibo @Hengdian Film and Television City, has nothing to do with this article, it is only for display
Where did the crew go?
The reduction of Hengdian crews stems from the disappearance of waist film and television projects and capital.
Zhang Qi, who works as an executive producer at a leading film and television company, told Entertainment Studio that at the end of 2022, he suddenly received news from several video platforms, saying that in the future, only projects of S level and above will be focused, projects below S level will be carefully considered, and projects below grade B will not be considered for the time being.
At the end of 2022, Wang Xiaohui, iQIYI's chief content officer and president of the professional content business group, mentioned to the media: "I basically don't do content below Grade A, saving more energy to do A+ and Grade S content." Tencent Video also proposed at the sharing meeting in early 2023 that there should be valuable content expression, not downgraded content with high input and low output.
"Now the platform usually has three requirements for a project. The first is the visual impact, and the level of special effects must be high. Today's dramas do not use the 4K and above format of the movie, and the platform does not accept it. The second is soul thinking, which can subvert the audience's previous cognition. The third is the value significance, that is, the need to have social significance. Only if one of these three satisfies it, it is easy to leave the audience. Zhang Qi said.
When each video platform receives a project, the script evaluation department will first look at the first few episodes or one-third of the script and determine that it meets the requirements before agreeing to continue to push down. But under today's trend, many film and television companies face abortion of A- and B-grade scripts. As of now, Zhang Qi's studio has no new projects to start in 2023.
"In the first half of 2023, everyone is waiting and seeing, because they don't know what the overall film and television trend is at present? If there is no plan with a stable input-output ratio, or a very attractive script, the film side will not start rashly. Zhang Qi said.
Special effects scene of the first episode of "Long Moon Ember Ming". For demonstration purposes only and has nothing to do with this article
Even if the project is successfully established, it is only the first step of "learning from the Western Heavens". There is still an extremely difficult process before the official start of shooting.
Executive producer Wang Na told Entertainment Studio that the cost of filing film and television dramas is very low. In addition to major themes and historical dramas that require pre-approval, general themes only need to prepare scripts and synopses, and set up projects on the website of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television. Many film and television companies often see a news or Weibo hot search, so they hurry up to set up a project to occupy the theme.
After the project was established, the film convenience began the long road of finding funds. Wang Na revealed that under normal circumstances, the investment of the crew will be divided into own funds, investor investment, government subsidies, and sponsor support: own funds are usually relatively stable; In the past, sponsors who would give real money to support them, in the past two years, due to the problem of bad artists, they are very cautious, generally only providing products and not giving funds; Investor investment has become a key factor in determining whether the crew can be started.
"Most of the projects that can't be turned on are funding issues. Some are waiting for actors when they have enough money. Then when the actor has a schedule, the capital has a problem again. ”
After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, Wang Na clearly felt that it was more difficult to find money in the industry. She once heard that a crew had set up a project for two or three years, but she never found the capital and distribution channels, and finally shelved it directly when the theme was exhausted.
It has nothing to do with this article, it is for demonstration purposes only
The crew that has already started filming will also encounter the situation of unexpected withdrawal of capital in the middle of the process. If the producer can't find a new investor to come in, the crew can only be forced to disband halfway. Entertainment Studio has previously reported that the crew of "Dongjunyi" had an incident where filming was interrupted due to a break in funds. At the beginning of 2023, the crew of the period drama "Yuelai" also reported on the Internet that filming was temporarily suspended due to insufficient funds in the middle of the process.
Under the current atmosphere of advocating realistic themes, costume dramas and period dramas with Hengdian as the main filming location have become the hardest hit areas of the film and television industry's "cost reduction and efficiency increase". Compared with modern dramas, it is much more difficult to find good books for costume dramas and period dramas, and the scale of investment basically floats in the hundreds of millions. Before 2019, Hengdian also had hundreds of crews grabbing places to film, and now it no longer exists.
"There are also themes where the approval process is longer. Although I also got a issuance license later, I took a non-prime file and couldn't get on it for the time being. Dragging and dragging, slowly it does not meet the new taste of the platform, and it is directly dragged to death. Wang Na said.
Where did the money go?
So, where does the money go in the film and television industry?
In 2016, Zhou Ran, who has been an executive producer of variety shows since graduation, realized that the investment of variety shows was gradually weak. As a result, he entered the film and television investment industry that was booming at that time and became a project manager for a private equity fund.
In his impression, the film and television industry investors in 2016 are often called "grandsons of the gold master". In the environment of the sky-high copyright war on the Internet video platform and the copyright fee of a drama often hundreds of millions, if you want to invest in a good project, you must queue up, and only the capital with a good relationship with the film boss can share a piece of the cake of the head project.
When Zhou Ran first joined, the company had 200 million to invest. As a result, after half a year, not a penny was spent. So he could only use his connections in the variety show circle to participate in four urban emotional dramas that were popular at that time, with an investment scale of 10 million yuan to 30 million yuan for each work.
However, since 2017, the trend of film and television investment has begun to turn - it is difficult for film and television companies to go public, and film and television media companies have clearly prohibited cross-industry mergers and acquisitions. This means that the capital entering the film and television industry has no normal exit channels, and there are no basic rules for profit. An industry that can only invest money but cannot recover it is a forbidden area for capital - many companies that hope to take advantage of the east wind of the film and television industry to cut a handful of leeks have gradually lost the survival blood on which they depend.
The investment industry is often the fastest to smell the market winds. In 2018, with the exposure of chaos such as the "yin and yang contract", the capital market began to lose confidence in the film and television industry. Bona Film Yu Dong mentioned in public that half of the film and television stock market value of the film and television industry fell this year, the market value of 160 billion yuan evaporated, and the market value of 8 film and television companies was cut.
According to the statistics of the observation report network, the number of investment and financing events in the mainland film and television industry has shown a downward trend year by year since the peak of 286 in 2017, and the number of investment and financing events from January to April 2022 was only 18.
Since 2018, the projects passed by Zhou Ran's investment company every year have been cut from five waist to two, and the waist project has basically been abandoned, and only the head project that can be stabilized in the four david stars has been invested.
In 2019, due to shareholder conflicts, Zhou Ran's investment department was dissolved, and he returned to a media company as a buffer. In 2021, Zhou Ran found an opportunity to invest in film and television in a central state-owned enterprise. The company, which began investing 800 million yuan a year in the film and television industry in 2017, shrank the share of film and television investment to 100 million yuan in 2021, and converted venture capital into fixed income investment, which is equivalent to bank loans, preferring small returns to pursue stability.
A year later, in July 2022, Zhou Ran once again received the news of the dissolution of the company's film and television department. The reason given by the leader is that the risk of the film and television industry is too high, and they are ready to stop this sector, and the projects that have been invested must also enter the exit process.
"Every industry has its own time for rapid development, and during this cycle, funds will flow here, and after the cycle, capital will begin to withdraw outward, and capital is very cruel."
In the "big waves" of the film and television industry, the wave of bankruptcy of a batch of film and television companies has reduced the liquidity in the industry, and the market value of the large companies left behind has also seriously shrunk. Wanda, China Film and Guangguang all fell by nearly two-thirds in their market value from their peaks, and Huayi Brothers, once the first stock in the film and television industry, fell by nearly 90%. Aiyuteng, which previously issued hundreds of millions of copyright fees, has also entered the stage of reducing costs and increasing efficiency to maintain cash flow. According to an exclusive report by Radio and Television, iQiyi's content investment in 2022 has been reduced to 19%.
It has nothing to do with this article, it is for demonstration purposes only
The foreign streaming giants are also having a hard time. In the first two quarters of 2022, Netflix subscribers fell by 200,000 and 970,000 in a row, and its market value was almost halved. Since launching Disney+ in 2019, Disney's streaming business has lost more than $8 billion.
Now Zhou Ran has entered a new investment company. The difference is that he has abandoned the film and television industry, but is watching some so-called sunrise industries, namely artificial intelligence, big health and so on. So far, he hasn't made a single investment.
In his forecast, the film and television industry will recover at a rate of 7%-8% per year. But a full return to pre-2017 levels may need to wait until 2026.
postscript
Although everyone from actors to producers to investors faces structural difficulties that are difficult to solve in the short term, they still have expectations for the future of the film and television industry.
Executive producers Wang Na and Zhang Qi are both preparing new projects on hand and preparing to start up in the second half of the year. "Good projects are never bad money, such as artists with heads and main creative teams. Films with stable distribution channels and popularity guarantees will never worry about investment. Wang Na said.
Investor Zhou Ran still has confidence in the film and television industry, because he found that whether the economy reaches a high tide or a trough, people's enthusiasm for film and television drama consumption has never changed. In 2023 there will be "Crazy", in 2022 there will be "The World", and in 2021 there will be "Age of Awakening". In the future, if he has the opportunity, he still wants to return to the film and television investment industry.
On April 5, the day of the Qingming Festival, the senior Hengpiao Lao Wang also posted a circle of friends: "Slowly Hengdian plays will become more and more, and everyone will have more opportunities to practice." Everyone seize the opportunity. I told you about it. We come from all over the world, not relatives or reasons, only if your character business is good, you may have a chance. ”
(Xiao Shu, Zhang Qi, Wang Na, Zhou Ran, Lao Wang are pseudonyms)
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