Why are fertility rates declining in many countries around the world? How will this change the world?

Decades ago, people were still worried about the "population explosion theory", but today, countries around the world are facing population stagnation and declining fertility rates. The New York Times described a heart-stopping scene on the 22nd: funerals are more common than baby first birthday feasts, and vacant houses will abound. Population experts predict that by the second half of the century, the global population will peak and then enter a state of continuous decline, when the number of deaths will exceed the number of births for the first time. How will population decline change the world? How do we respond?

The global population is declining

In the past, there was often concern that excessive population growth would have a negative impact on the world. As life expectancy increases and infant mortality declines, the global population increased from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000.

To this day, this trend continues in some countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, each family now has an average of 4 to 5 children. But in other parts of the world, the opposite may be true, and the era of high fertility is coming to an end.

Demographers point out that the total fertility rate, or the average number of children born to a woman of childbearing age, is declining. If that number falls below 2.1, the overall size of the population will begin to decline. "This change may take more than a decade to occur, but once it begins, the demographic downturn spirals exponentially." The New York Times said.

But at present, the total fertility rate in many countries simply does not reach this level. Birth rates in countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada hover between 1.5 and 2. In populous countries such as India and Mexico, the total fertility rate has also fallen or is falling below 2.1.

Among developed countries, South Korea has become a typical case. In 2019, South Korea's fertility rate has fallen to an all-time low of 0.92, the lowest among developed countries. This means that on average, each Korean woman has less than one child.

The declining birth rate, combined with rapid industrialization, has led to the polarization of Korean society as more Koreans move from rural towns to large cities. In big cities like Seoul, population growth is putting enormous pressure on infrastructure and housing, but in rural towns, schools and amusement parks are overgrown. At present, non-elite universities, especially universities outside Seoul, have recruited underage students, and the number of 18-year-old students in South Korea has dropped from 900,000 in 1992 to 500,000.

In order to increase the birth rate, the government has introduced a prenatal cash subsidy, from 2022, every child born will receive 2 million won, but with little effect. Kim Mi-kyung, a 38-year-old full-time housewife, said: "From all sides, it is not worth having a lot of children. ”

The same is true of Italy, thousands of miles away. Capracotta, a small town in southern Italy, has converted kindergartens into nursing homes. Another town, Agnone, closed its maternity ward 10 years ago and this year has only six babies born in the town. In Germany, thousands of houses have been razed to the ground and converted into parks.

Census data released this month by China and the United States also show that population growth in both countries is continuing to slow. The U.S. population has grown by 7.4 percent over the past 10 years, the second-slowest pace in U.S. history, only better than during the Great Depression.

Why is fertility declining?

Like an avalanche, the decline in global fertility appears to be widening and accelerating.

According to research by the Institute for Health Indicator Evaluation at the University of Washington, the global fertility rate has nearly halved to 2.4 by 2017. Last July, researchers at the University of Washington published a study in the academic journal The Lancet predicting that in 2100, that number would fall to 1.7, with fertility rates in 183 of the world's 195 countries falling below 2.1, and most countries experiencing population contraction.

The researchers expect that the total global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 and fall to 8.8 billion by the end of the century. By then, the populations of 23 countries, including Spain, Portugal, Thailand, South Korea and Japan, are expected to halve in 2100, and the number of Chinese is expected to fall from 1.4 billion today to 732 million.

Why is the global fertility rate declining?

According to the New York Times, women's improved educational attainment, anxiety about having children and more contraceptive methods have allowed more families to postpone having children and fewer babies to be born. Persistent gender inequality and the high cost of living also lead to the reluctance of young people to marry and have children.

Surveys show that in many countries around the world, young people face many obstacles even if they want more children. Anna Parolini, who lives in Milan, Italy, said her monthly salary of less than 2,000 euros was simply not enough to raise a child: "When I think about having children, I take a breath of cool air. ”

Experts warn that perhaps without worrying too much about population decline, many women choose to have fewer children on their own initiative, which in many ways also represents positive factors, such as increased job opportunities for women.

Other demographers believe that future historians may think that the current human race is in a "transition period" or "gestation period", and that human beings need to find ways to improve the social environment and make more people willing to build the families they want, but this effort may also fail.

How to change the world?

Some people think that a decline in population may be a good thing for the natural and social environment. A smaller population may lead to higher wages, a more equitable society, lower carbon emissions and a higher quality of life. But analysts warn that a shrinking population will bring about a series of unpredictable changes in the social fabric.

According to the New York Times, an aging population and low fertility rates are bound to lead to a decline in the labor force and an increase in retirees, which may subvert the current concept of young people driving economic development and helping the elderly pay pensions, and may also reshape the concept of family and country.

"Imagine areas where everyone is in their prime, where the government gives huge rewards to immigrants and mothers, grandparents work odd jobs to subsidize the family, and Super Bowl ads to encourage childbearing...

Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, says that an upside-down age structure (more old people than young people) will have a whole set of negative consequences, creating a huge social shift.

In a world of massive aging, who pays taxes? Who pays for health insurance for seniors? Who will take care of the elderly? Can people still retire? "We need a soft landing." Murray said.

"A paradigm shift is necessary." Frank Swiaczny, a German demographer who worked at the United Nations, said: "Countries need to learn to adapt to negative population growth. ”

At present, from East Asia to Europe, countries are struggling to adapt. South Korea is pushing for university mergers; Japan, where adult diaper sales surpass baby diapers, is integrating cities with shrinking populations; and Sweden has begun shifting resources from schools to elderly care centers. Delayed retirement is on the agenda in many countries around the world, with Germany, which previously raised the retirement age to 67, and is now considering raising it to 69.

How to deal with negative population growth? The experience of some countries is also worth referencing.

In recent years, after Expanding Childcare and Paid Parental Leave coverage in Germany, the fertility rate rose from 1.3 in 2006 to the most recent 1.54. The Once-Declining German city of Leipzig is now growing again after downsizing and increasing its attractiveness.

Other countries encourage people to have children and give various subsidies and incentives. For example, the Swedish government not only allows mothers to take maternity leave, but also legislates that fathers can also take maternity leave. Bonuses can also be received if both parents take a total of 480 days and parents take 240 days of maternity leave each. In addition, children are eligible for financial subsidies from the time of birth until the age of 16.

The Danish government also stipulates that financial subsidies are available from the birth of a child until the age of 18. At the same time, Danish parents can enjoy one year of paid maternity leave, of which the mother's full-pay maternity leave is 18 weeks, the father's two weeks, and the remaining part of the couple can be distributed by themselves.

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Title Image Source: Figure Worm Image Editor: Su Wei

Source: Author: Qiu Wenhan