March 10, 2023 | Total Issue 3171
The 95th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on the morning of March 13, Beijing time, and the attribution of various awards has become the focus of attention of fans around the world.
A week before the awards, the winning films have already appeared. Nominations for the Oscars are selected by the relevant unions. For example, the Directors Guild selected the Best Director shortlist, and then more than 9,500 Oscar judges voted for the winners.
Hollywood has a tradition of awards seasons, which start in December of the previous year and continue until the eve of the Oscars. During the awards season, the Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Actors Guild successively commended outstanding films and main creators. The judges of the various union awards are likely to also serve as Oscar judges. The union awards and their Oscar counterparts overlap at a high rate.
This year's competition is extremely fierce, with Michelle Yeoh's "Instantaneous Universe" leading the way with 11 nominations, and films such as "Thar" and "No War on the Western Front" are strong opponents. Can Michelle Yeoh become the first Chinese actress of the Oscar? Can "Instantaneous Universe" win the Best Picture Award?
We predict each Oscar based on the attribution of major awards in the awards season, such as the major film union awards, Golden Globe Awards, and Critics' Choice Awards.
Best Picture Award
Prediction Award: "Instantaneous Universe"
Strong opponents: "No War on the Western Front", "Triangle of Pathos"
Nominated films: "No War on the Western Front", "Avatar: The Way of Water", "Inisherin's Banshee", "Elvis", "Instantaneous Universe", "Dream House", "Tar", "Top Gun 2: The Lone Ranger", "Triangle of Pathos", "Women's Conversation"
Prospect analysis: There are 9 films shortlisted for the Best Film Award. This award was a shortlist of 5 films before 2009, and the organizers began to expand the nominations to 10 in 2009 in order to make more outstanding films nominations, but the organizers also emphasized that it would be better to lack than to abuse.
"Instantaneous Universe" began the awards harvest during the awards season, winning the Producers Guild Award (Best Cinema Filmmaker), the Independent Spirit of American Film Award (Best Picture), the Critics' Choice Award (Best Picture) and many other awards. "Instantaneous Universe" increased the odds of winning the Oscar after it pocketed the top prize of the Producers Guild.
Throughout the past 10 years of the Oscar for Best Picture, reality has dominated the position. Among them, it can be subdivided into: themes that focus on ethnic minorities ("Twelve Years as a Slave", "Green Book") and themes that focus on vulnerable groups ("Focus", "Listening Girl", "Parasite").
"Instantaneous Universe" is a fantasy film, and the protagonists are minorities. The film's wild imagination is based on the protagonist's depressed and busy real life, and it is easy to win the favor of the judges in terms of subject matter and characters.
At the same time, the Oscar judges tend to encourage films that are innovative in audiovisual language and expression. "Birdman" and "The Shape of Water" both add bold imagination, vivid characters and emotional stories in real life and historical environments to touch the heartstrings of the audience, and "Instantaneous Universe" also belongs to this type of work. With the blessing of a number of positive factors, the winning surface is very large.
If "Instantaneous Universe" wins the Best Picture Award, it will be the first time that a Chinese-led film will win the highest Oscar award, writing a new chapter in Chinese film history.
There are two potential opponents of the film: "No War on the Western Front" and "Triangle of Pathos".
"No War on the Western Front" is a German-language film that previously won the British Academy Award for Best Picture. Anti-war films have always been praised by Hollywood, and the 1930 version of "No War on the Western Front" won the Oscar for Best Picture. The new version's deep portrayal of human nature and the fine depiction of brutal war scenes surpass the 1930 version and have the quality of winning the championship.
"Triangle of Pathos" won last year's Palme d'Or at Cannes. The film is rich in content and exquisitely structured, and it is also a strong contender for the top prize. The Korean film "Parasite" won the Palme d'Or first, and then won the Oscar for Best Picture.
Best Director Award
Prediction Award: Kwan Jiayong and Daniel Schnatter for "Instantaneous Universe"
Strong opponent: Ruben Osterlund "Triangle of Pathos"
Nominees: Todd Field "Thal", Kwan Jiayong, Daniel Schnatter "Instantaneous Universe", Martin MacDonald "Inischelin's Banshee", Steven Spielberg "The House of Dreamers", Ruben Osterlund "The Triangle of Pathos"
Prospect analysis: "Instantaneous Universe" has won the Best Director Award for Feature Film from the Directors Guild of America in February. Previous Academy Award winners for Best Director Jane Campion ("Dog Power"), Damien Chazelre ("La La Land"), and Alfonso Cuarón ("Roma") all won the Directors Guild Award first, and then successfully won the Oscar, with a very high hit rate.
"Instantaneous Universe" almost won the competition for the Oscar for Best Director. The film is co-directed by Kwan Jiayong and Daniel Schnatter, and the two directors are good at showing the brilliance of human nature in bad taste. The previous work "Swiss Army Knife Man" has already shocked four people, and "Instantaneous Universe" carries forward the unique directorial style. The bad taste in the film is everywhere, adding excellent humor to the plot and bringing the audience a unique viewing experience.
The film's world view, character relationships, and visual effects are original, opening up the grand world of the multiverse from the perspective of ordinary people. This creative concept breaks through the Hollywood fantasy film pattern and finds a precise balance between commercialization and creators' self-expression.
The other nominees did not achieve such a breakthrough in creation, and Ruben Osterlund's "Triangle of Pathos" is a certain threat to "Instantaneous Universe" with a mastery of directing techniques.
Best Actor Award
Prediction Award: Brandon Fisher, "Whale"
Strong opponent: Austin Butler "Elvis"
Nominees: Austin Butler "Elvis", Colin Farrell "Inischelin's Banshee", Brandon Fisher "Whale", Bill Nye "Lust for Life", Paul Mescal "After the Sun"
Prospect analysis: The Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Critics' Choice Awards all awarded Best Actor to Brandon Fisher, the star of "Whale", and the two major vane awards went to his home, and the Academy Awards were getting closer and closer to him.
In the film, Charlie, played by Brandon Fisher, is a 270-kilogram obese man. The self-abandonment and uncontrolled diet of homosexuals after his death made him bloated. Brandon Fisher is crazy to gain weight for the character, not only to show the character's difficulty in action, but also to show Charlie's complex state of mind.
Charlie's character has a unique image and an exceptionally rich spiritual world, giving the actor a wide space to perform.
Austin Butler won the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor for "Elvis". He showed his excellent singing and dancing skills in the film, and his interpretation evoked the audience's memories of Elvis. Biopics are rich in Oscar winners, "Lincoln", "The Theory of Everything" and "King Richard" are all in this category.
Best Actress Award
Prediction Award: Michelle Yeoh's "Instantaneous Universe"
Strong opponent: Cate Blanchett, "Thal"
Nominees: Cate Blanchett "Tal", Michelle Williams "Dream House", Michelle Yeoh "Instantaneous Universe", Anna De Armas "Blonde Monroe", Andrea Riceborough "To Leslie"
Prospect analysis: The competition of film queens is a short battle, and the contest between Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett is becoming increasingly hot.
Michelle Yeoh won the Screen Actors Guild Award (Best Actress) and the Golden Globe Award (Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy Category) during the awards season.
Cate Blanchett won a Golden Globe Award (Best Actress), a Critics' Choice Award (Best Actress), and a BAFTA Award (Best Actress).
Michelle Yeoh brings together her years of acting experience in the film industry in this work, showing her acting skills and successfully creating a housewife with a smart image and strong martial arts.
Cate Blanchett's performance in "Thal" is equally stunning, although the film expresses the suspicion of obscurity and confusion, the gaze of Cate Blanchett allows the audience to fully appreciate the character's arbitrary and charming artist's temperament. Kate's performers are indistinguishable and impeccable.
There has not been a Chinese film queen in the history of the Oscars, and Michelle Yeoh is expected to achieve a breakthrough of zero this time, we will wait and see.
Best Original Screenplay Award
Prediction Award: Kwan Jiayong and Daniel Schnatter for "Instantaneous Universe"
Potential rival: Martin MacDonald, The Banshee of Inischelin
Nominees: Martin MacDonald, Inischelin's Banshee, Kwan Jiayong, Daniel Schnatter, Instantaneous Universe, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner, Dream House, Todd Field, Todd Field, Thal, Ruben Osterlund
Prospect analysis: In the past decade, the two awards for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay have a high overlap rate. "Birdman", "Focus", "Green Book" and "Parasite" have successfully won these two awards. Best Screenplay is the basis for Best Picture.
Kwan and Daniel Schnatter created a fantastic multiverse on the screenplay, providing a subtle creative text for this hard-to-classify film.
"Instantaneous Universe" has won the Writers Guild of America Award (Best Original Screenplay for Film) and the Critics' Choice Award (Best Original Screenplay) in the awards season, and the Oscar trend tends to be obvious.
"The Banshee of Inisherin" is a serious contender. The film is ostensibly about the break in friendship between two men, and inside it is a metaphor for Ireland's civil war in 1923. The conflict and friction between the characters implies the history of national struggle. Such an exquisite setting highlights the ingenuity of the creator.
epilogue
"Avatar 2" directed by James Cameron and "Dream Maker" directed by Steven Spielberg have also attracted much attention. But the Oscars have historically focused on rewarding creators with realistic themes and breakthrough performance.
Therefore, "Avatar 2", as a commercial entertainment blockbuster, can only hope to compete for technical awards, and the film is very likely to win the Best Visual Effects Award.
"Dream House" is Spielberg's sincere work, but the creativity is lacking. As a young man, he was a leading figure in Hollywood's new generation of filmmakers, creating cinematic peaks in both commercial and literary fields.
Now he is in his seventies. "Dream House" is his reminiscence of his film road, which can give fans an in-depth understanding of the growth process of this movie giant, but it is difficult to impress the Oscar judges who have read countless films.
【Text/Cui Ting】