Speaking of JA Technology, I think of Xingtai New Energy Vocational College, which started construction last month.
This is the first local higher education institution invested by JA Technology, and the first new energy school in the entire Hebei Province.
Is JA Technology preparing for a long-term talent plan?
The school, which is small enough to accommodate 6,000 students, is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year and will be ready for enrollment next year.
There are not many enterprises that run schools, but not many are successful or well-run.
For this situation, some people criticize and some praise, I think, no matter what, no matter what kind of education, itself is good, as for other things, various, we will not evaluate.
Back to the protagonist we talked about today, JA Technology.
1. Company
The founder of JA Technology is called Jin Baofang, not a top student, but the kind of iron leader.
Jin Baofang's birth is very ordinary, born in 1952 in a farming family in Ningjin, Xingtai, Hebei, the education level is not high, and he went out to work after graduating from high school.
Later, he was pushed to Xingtai's Finance and Trade College for further study, which is also only a technical secondary school.
After graduating, he worked as an accountant in a local cement factory.
In the second year, he went to the county agricultural machinery bureau as the director, and then gradually rose to the position of deputy director.
In 1992, because of his outstanding performance, he was transferred to the head of the county power bureau, and his skills were very tough, and the loose power bureau was put in order.
The Jin Baofang family is deeply involved with officialdom, and there is no need to say much about avoiding sensitivity.
In the mid-nineties, which was the highlight moment after the reform and opening up, many politicians went to the sea to do business.
Jin Baofang also couldn't resist the restless heart, and after a certain accumulation, he also began to join the gold rush.
The first entrepreneurial project was to make shoes, but due to lack of experience, the initial battle failed.
The second project chose to make glass, and it failed even worse.
After these two blows, or tempering, Jin Baofang did not give up on himself, but calmed down to seriously study the way out in the future.
Later, by chance, he met a fellow named Ren Bingyan, who is the deputy director of the Semiconductor Research Institute of Hebei University of Technology.
When the fellows see the fellows, their eyes are full of tears!
After many times of communication, Ren Bingyan agreed to cooperate with Jin Baofang to start a "monocrystalline silicon factory" together.
So in 1996, "Jinglong Semiconductor" was established, which is the predecessor of Jinglong Group.
Subsequently, Jin Baofang showed his excellent marketing and management skills, and the semiconductor factory was prosperous.
The following year, in 1997, he persuaded Matsumiya Semiconductor Co., Ltd., the world's largest solar wafer company at the time, to hear the Japanese name.
That's right, this is Japan, and the two joint ventures established "Matsumiya Semiconductor".
Thanks to the support of Japan, the development speed was relatively fast, and the global market continued to expand in the following years.
In 2005, Jin Baofang copied this set of cooperation with Japanese companies, and in Australia, cooperated with local optoelectronic science companies, and again established a joint venture "JA Solar Energy Co., Ltd.", which is how JA Technology came about.
The business scope has also expanded from a single wafer to cells and modules.
From the first day of its establishment, it has been an international route, so until now, the performance of foreign contributions has been large.
Later, in 2007, the company was listed on NASDAQ and changed its name to "JA Technology".
This is the first overseas listed company in Hebei.
We all know that before the solar peak in recent years, there was a wave of new energy roller coasters.
In the roller coaster uphill stage, all photovoltaic companies are like hormones, rushing forward without caring about the cost and hidden dangers.
Including JA Technology, expanding production capacity is like eating.
So in 2010, JA Technology was the world's largest monocrystalline silicon company.
That is, from this time, JA Technology began to lay out photovoltaic "integration", which will be said when the following analysis business is introduced.
When JA Technology was first listed, it was also the time when the mainland photovoltaic industry was developing wildly.
I wonder if anyone remembers "Saiwei", or does anyone remember "Peng Xiaofeng" or "Shi Zhengrong"?
Peng Xiaofeng, who was only in his early 30s at the time, opened fire on the world photovoltaic industry with an invincible attitude.
I remember that at that time, there were at least 10 photovoltaic companies listed on the US stock market in the mainland.
But how did it end?
What a miserable word!
But 56-year-old Jin Baofang, wise and calculating, felt the mountain rain coming in advance.
A decision was made very decisively, that is, the "clearance sale".
The price of monocrystalline silicon is at the top of the mountain, maybe sell it slowly, and you can sell it at a good price.
Jin Baofang did not have such a mother-in-law, in a very short time, at a discount, as long as willing to take over, the price can be pressed all the time, provided that the contract must be signed immediately.
It is precisely this kind of boldness and decisiveness that has allowed JA Technology to successfully avoid a catastrophe.
If we look at the price trend of polysilicon that year, we can see how risky it is.
Jin Baofang was outside in 78 of that year and saw that countless factories began to make polysilicon.
Regardless of what these large and small factories used to do, buy polysilicon rods back, and then build a cutting machine, click and cut into silicon wafers to do business.
Think about how crazy the market is.
Jin Baofang was immediately afraid, so in August, there was the fire sale mentioned earlier.
It just so happened that the price of polysilicon in August was at its peak, and it was almost 500.
Just one month later, the financial crisis came, and the global polysilicon price was not the cheapest, only cheaper.
This is actually a premeditated and planned encirclement and suppression action by European and American capitalists.
The world's photovoltaic industry is indeed developing extremely fast, we all know that China has always been a big production country, as long as it is full power, as long as the customer dares to ask, there is no goods that cannot be delivered.
But there is a problem.
Production is no problem, but raw materials and markets, there are big problems.
First of all, photovoltaic is the first development in Europe and the United States to drive the global follow-up, and the market is mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States.
And then, thanks to the foresight of European and American capitalists, they mastered silicon materials in advance.
That is, we can only buy raw materials from others, and then process them and sell them to others.
Excuse me, as a hardworking production people, where is your status? Where is the bargaining power?
People say today that the price of raw materials has doubled, do you want it?
If you don't want it, there is no business, if you want, it is better.
Tomorrow say that the purchase price of finished products will be reduced by half, will you sell it or not?
If you don't sell it, you will pile it up in the warehouse, and if you sell it, it's over, and it's a huge loss.
The photovoltaic industry in the mainland was harvested in this way.
There are also unwilling giants, such as Peng Xiaofeng mentioned earlier, and Zhu Gongshan and so on.
Zhu Gongshan at its peak, but let the world-famous "GCL" at that time become the world's first.
This group of people survived the financial crisis, so they bet that the photovoltaic industry will recover immediately, and continue to frantically increase leverage and expand production capacity, thinking that the moment of "the leftover is king".
But they didn't expect that the game was not over, and they were not really the few left.
Not long after, in 2012, the biggest event in the photovoltaic industry was the so-called "double-reverse" investigation of the mainland by the United States, which everyone should know.
Well, it is no longer possible to describe the mainland's photovoltaic industry, the world's largest photovoltaic production place, which has been nakedly ransacked.
So that large number of photovoltaic giants are vigorously dry, and then quietly fall.
Of course, there are very few people who have survived, or "remained".
JA Technology is one of the survivors.
After the rapid dumping of inventory, JA Technology lurked down, covered the money bag and shrunk the diet to live, while calmly engaged in research and development.
The loss is certain, but it is good that you are prepared in advance, and you can not spend money without spending money.
Since 2012, the mainland has been deeply aware of the importance of a complete industrial chain, so the focus of state support has been upstream and downstream.
It was from this time that the infinite scenery of Longji and Central emerged later.
So why can JA Technology withstand that round of looting of the mainland photovoltaic industry by European and American capitalists?
The reason is his integration strategy.
As mentioned at the beginning of the article, JA Technology has not only bet on crystalline silicon since it cooperated with relevant Australian institutions to establish JA Solar in 2005.
Instead, it continues to expand into new businesses, such as the battery and ingot projects established in Yangzhou and Donghai in 2008, which reached 650MW of battery capacity in less than a year.
By 2010, JA Technology was already the world's largest crystalline silicon cell company, with shipments of up to 1.5GW.
For example, in 2011, there was a significant expansion of the module business and photovoltaic power plant construction business.
In fact, regarding the choice of integration and professional vertical, each industry has always been very controversial, some people think that it is necessary to do a good job of a thing, and some people think that it is necessary to diversify risks.
I don't think there's a difference between good and bad, the key depends on our only and final backing, and that is the country.
In fact, the reason why the first two rounds of photovoltaic was miserable was that the mainland could not keep up with all aspects at that time, compared with developed countries, and the entire industry was completely controlled by others.
Now it's different, there are many listed companies that do well in a single business, especially in biological companies.
If there are resources and energy to do the industrial chain, of course, it is also good.
And in fact, when the mainland photovoltaic industry just started, the industry was originally developing in the direction of integration.
Because the entire industry chain is blank and each business makes money, many companies are similar to JA Technology and constantly expand new businesses.
However, the industry is developing too fast, making money is too easy, and people's hearts are inflated.
So concentrate all your resources and frantically make one thing as big as possible.
Among them, silicon wafers are the easiest to do, and the capacity expansion is also the fastest.
Therefore, it later evolved into most people giving up integration and specializing in one or a few products.
Now it's different, although I just said that integration or vertical is not good or bad, but most people still tend to be integrated.
We look at most of the PV companies now, and the business is a lot, including LONGi and Zhonghuan.
Later, JA Technology was privatized and delisted in the US stocks, and then listed on the A-share market through a backdoor in 2019, as everyone knows.
Let's mention Jin Baofang's two daughters, although the company is also a professional manager system, but there should still be inheritance.
Eldest Princess Jin Junhui.
Before 2021, it is estimated that most people did not know about this executive who suddenly appeared.
Because Jin Junhui has always been a civil servant before, he achieved the position of secretary of the provincial direct league working committee in 2021, and he did not hold the equity of JA Technology, so the outside world does not know.
However, in 2020, Jin Baofang's investigation incident was relatively large.
The event in the picture above has passed, and it is okay, so we will not make any guesses.
In April 2021, Jin Baofang returned to normal.
At that time, when this happened, the eldest daughter Jin Junhui began to appear in the public eye.
It's clear that this is arranging the latter one!
Shortly after Jin Baofang returned to the company, Jin Junhui became an assistant and met with the Queen of England on behalf of the company at the end of that year.
In the past year or so, the frequency of Jin Junhui's public appearances has greatly increased.
At the end of last year, JA Technology's board of directors was reorganized.
The new board members, Jin Junhui is among them.
Friends who pay attention to JA Technology can pay more attention to this rookie, who is basically the future leader.
The youngest daughter Jin Junmiao.
Unlike the eldest daughter, Jin Junmiao has been with Jin Baofang all these years, so there will be little princesses in many ceremonial venues.
In the months when Jin Baofang was investigated, Jin Junmiao also supervised the company as an assistant, and some important contracts at that time were signed by her.
Later, Jin Baofang returned to the company and immediately gave 25% of Jingtaifu's equity to Jin Junmiao.
It should be known that Xingtaifu holds 47.62% of the equity of JA Technology.
There is also the board election announcement I screenshot above, and the one on the right of Jin Junhui's name is called Tao Ran.
This big man is Jin Junmiao's husband.
It seems that JA Technology is moving step by step towards the road of no return of family business!
The above sentence is very important, everyone savor!
Before this, JA Technology had "four taibao", namely Niu Xinwei in charge of operations, Li Shaohui in charge of finance, Huang Xinming in charge of sales, and Wu Yandong, secretary of the board.
Now that none of the four taibao are on the board of directors, in 2021, Niu Xinwei and Huang Xinming are still there, what a thing!
II. Business
JA Technology has four major business segments, namely silicon rod silicon wafers, solar cells, solar modules, and photovoltaic power plants.
1. Silicon rods and wafers
This thing is very simple, that is, polysilicon is pulled through the single crystal furnace, and the production is silicon rod.
Then the silicon rod is generally cut into pieces by diamond wire cutting machine, which is the finished product.
JA Technology mainly makes monocrystalline silicon wafers, as well as polysilicon.
The use is to install on monocrystalline solar cells, which are basically self-produced and self-used, and there is little external sales.
We don't see the performance of silicon in trading software.
Therefore, strictly speaking, silicon rods and silicon wafers cannot be counted as the company's business, but can only be regarded as consumables or accessories.
The wafer sizes used are mainly 166mm and 182mm.
And in addition to its own production, JA Technology also needs to purchase silicon wafers.
According to the company's standards, wafer and cell production capacity remains at around 80% of module capacity, with each expansion occurring simultaneously.
Module production capacity will be said later, according to this scale, although silicon wafers are almost not sold to the outside world, but the scale is still at the forefront of the industry.
2. Solar cells
This battery does not seem to be discussed much, not as hot as power batteries.
Because the photovoltaic industry is still hot silicon wafers and modules, as well as power stations, these things are already integrated.
The battery is just one of the parts.
Like silicon wafers, the solar cells produced by JA Technology are basically for their own use.
At present, the company's mainstream product is the Percium series, which uses 166mm or 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers.
The most critical parameter of any battery is "conversion efficiency", and the conversion efficiency of Weixiu battery is 23.6%, which is already the industry-leading level.
And there will be a breakthrough in 2022, wait for the annual report to come out and analyze.
In addition to Weixiu, there is also a Bycium, N-type battery, which has a higher conversion efficiency, reaching 24.6%, but it is still in the optimization and upgrade stage.
Anyway, it's all a show, don't show the rollover.
The large amount of money raised privately in 2021 is used to expand the production capacity of silicon wafers and batteries.
From this point of view, batteries are also not a business, but only an important part of the assembly.
3. Solar modules
This is JA Technology's external fist product, with a total revenue of 41.3 billion yuan in 2021 and module revenue of 39.5 billion yuan.
From 2017 to 2021, the company's module shipments ranked among the top three in the world for five consecutive years.
Just like the style of JA Technology, it is really stable!
By the way, the specific introduction of silicon wafers, cells and modules, when analyzing the photovoltaic industry before, has been very detailed and popular science, here will not be repeated.
Especially last year, a lot of photovoltaic companies were analyzed, and if you are interested, you can turn to the previous article to see.
JA Technology's main business is abroad, with more than 60% of its modules sold overseas and less than 40% of its modules sold domestically.
According to the 2021 annual report data, module capacity is 40GW, and more than 50GW in 2022.
In recent years, JA Technology's investment in module research and development has also been relatively large, and the results are also there.
For example, the mainstream power of standard 72-piece monocrystalline DeepBlue series modules can reach 535-555W.
Whether it is the conversion efficiency of the battery or the power of the module, it is a leading level in the industry.
In the future, the battery will be mature and mass-produced, and the module power will be further improved.
For distributed photovoltaics, JA Technology also has supporting rooftop modules, such as DeepBlue 3.0 Light modules, which use ground 182mm silicon wafers tailored for rooftop solar energy, and the power can also reach 415W.
In the first three quarters of 2022, JA Technology's module shipments ranked fourth with a volume of 27GW.
The year-on-year increase also reached 68%.
The first place is, of course, LONGi, and the second and third places are TRW and Jinko, and the difference between the two is very small.
These companies have also been analyzed before.
More than 65% of the global market share is in the hands of these four companies.
At the end of last year, the photovoltaic cell boss Tongwei Co., Ltd. also distributed the announcement of entering the module, and the debut was a big deal, with a new production capacity of 25GW, but it was still early.
By the way, I remember seeing the news last year that in the middle of 2022, the cumulative shipment of JA Technology's modules exceeded 100GW, which is the third in the world.
Now the company's new generation of battery module DeepBlue 4.0X, the average conversion rate can reach 25%, the biggest advantage is that it can reduce the cost by about 2 to 4 percentage points.
Don't underestimate the small two or three points, which have a great impact on gross profit.
4. Photovoltaic power station
I have said many times that in the future, I am only optimistic about photovoltaic companies with power stations.
The photovoltaic industry has been frantically expanding production capacity in recent years, the market is actually saturated, you can wait to see the industry data in the second half of this year, there must be excess capacity.
In the future, only the power station can act as a rent-collector for the company, thus bringing stable income.
JA Technology has its own power station, and according to 2021 data, it has sold about 350MW of installed power to the outside world.
This scale is also accelerating, with 700MW of power plants coming online in 2022.
There are two conventional modes of photovoltaic power plants.
The first is centralized power stations, which need to cooperate with the local government and have various indicators and requirements.
After the power station is built, the company is responsible for operating it.
Another is the distributed power station, that is, rooftop solar, where the company will first sign a contract with the owner and then invest in construction.
The electricity generated is given priority to the owner, and the excess electricity is sold to the power grid company.
Both technology and models are mature.
5. Integration
Combining the above businesses is called integration.
I think the only advantage of integration is that when the industry has overcapacity, the company will be hit relatively less and the ability to resist the blow is a little stronger.
In fact, from the cost point of view, whether it is integration or verticalization, the difference is not big, and it will not make the profit of integration higher because of overcapacity.
For example, silicon wafers, if supply and demand reach a balance this year, then next year capacity will definitely be excessive, and prices will inevitably fall.
At this time, JA Technology has two choices, the first is to continue to produce for its own use, and the second is to purchase externally.
It is not that the cost of doing it yourself will necessarily be low, and when the industry is rolled, it is possible to buy someone else's cheaper than your own production.
Therefore, integration will only have a buffering effect when the industry is greatly turbulent, and in terms of advantages, there is actually nothing outstanding.
I see that many people boast about the integration of JA Technology, including JA Technology itself, I don't think it's necessary.
Including the so-called "one body and two wings" proposed last year, there is no need to pay attention, let alone study.
The photovoltaic industry is actually very simple, just 6 things, silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, modules, power stations, equipment.
I like to call it the Six Donkey Kongs.
These things are now very mature, and technological breakthroughs are very slow.
Everyone's direction is in two aspects, one is conversion efficiency, the other is processing technology.
Whether it is new energy or photovoltaics, conversion efficiency is the bottleneck of the industry, so it can only be used.
Therefore, everyone is studying various battery technologies, solar panel technologies, large silicon wafer technologies, etc., all in order to maximize the conversion rate of a lost sun.
As for the processing technology, it is to reduce costs.
In my opinion, these six things, whether to make one, or to do several, the difference is not so big, the key is still the power station.
As for N-type crystalline silicon, perovskite battery technology and energy storage, these fields are also under research by JA Technology, so let's not talk about it today.
3. Performance
Since it was only listed on the A-share market in 2019, there is no financial data before 2019 in the software, and some are also backdoor data.
The revenue performance in recent years has been quite good.
In 2021, the revenue was 41.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the revenue reported in the third quarter of 2022 was 49.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89%.
Cell modules hit a new high, with 27.1GW shipped.
It has been expanding production before, and now it has been releasing performance, which is normal.
According to the scale of investment in previous years, it would not be normal if there was no such growth.
Net profit performance is also very good.
The net profit in 2021 was 2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35%, and the net profit in the third quarter of 2022 was 3.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 150%.
If according to the data of the performance forecast.
In 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent will be between 4.8 billion and 5.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 135.45% to 174.69%.
Deduction of non-net profit between 4.82 billion and 5.62 billion, the year-on-year increase is higher.
Anyway, it's all about increasing income and profit.
This is also the reason why the photovoltaic industry has been too hot in recent years, the global installed capacity has been rising, and the market demand has always been in short supply.
For example, in 2022, China's new PV installed capacity will be 87.41GW, a year-on-year increase of 60.3%, and the EU27 will add 41.4GW of PV installation, a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%.
Next year it will not be so good, and it will start rolling.
Some people may wonder, hasn't the growth rate of photovoltaics been growing significantly, why did it start to roll?
PV growth is right and will continue to grow for many years to come.
But do you know how scary the capacity expansion of these companies is?
In the first half of 2022, the four core products of polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules expanded to 4.58 million tons, 588GW, 293GW and 361GW respectively.
And not only players in the industry are expanding, there are many rookies who come across borders.
Open an announcement from any company, and in recent years such announcements have been issued every once in a while.
For example, fixed addition, such as project progress, such as production and so on.
I won't take screenshots one by one, you can see it in any software.
Needless to say, JA Technology may only announce a 5GW project this month, and another 10GW project will be announced in two months.
However, the capacity of each country's power grid for new energy power is limited, which I also talked about in detail when analyzing TBEA before.
Unless the grid is fully upgraded, only so much electricity can be allowed to come in.
Even if it is a grid upgrade, this is a huge investment, and the cycle is bound to be very long, compared to the expansion rate of new energy, it is simply a turtle speed like a rabbit.
But this year is no problem.
Therefore, in the case of such a good market, the production capacity is being released at a rapid pace, and module shipments have of course skyrocketed.
But with the increasing capacity of the entire industry, coupled with the rise of certain raw materials, the gross margin is getting lower and lower.
As shown in the chart above, the gross margin in 2021 has dropped to only 14.6%, and the third quarter report in 2022 has further decreased to 13.4%.
That is, now it is completely dependent on the amount of stacking, small profits and quick turnover.
Once it begins to fall into the competition of the stock market, the gross profit margin will decline again.
With continuous investment over the years, JA Technology's asset-liability ratio is not low, 70.7% in 2021 and 63.4% in the third quarter of 2022.
In 2021, the current liabilities were 32.65 billion yuan, the total liabilities were 40.25 billion yuan, and the current liabilities reported in the third quarter of 2022 were 39.98 billion yuan, with total liabilities reaching 48.28 billion yuan.
Let's look at cash flow.
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2021 were only 6.5 billion, and the third quarter report for 2022 was only 4.3 billion.
Compared with debt, the gap seems to be a bit big.
So every year there is more than 10 billion in cash raised, otherwise it will collapse.
Of course, operating cash flow is good, especially in 2022.
Operating cash inflow in 2021 was RMB39.1 billion, and the third quarter of 2022 reported RMB48.3 billion.
In the words of the bank loan specialist, the turnover is not bad.
However, the operating cash outflow is also not small, 35.4 billion in 2021 and 45.8 billion in the third quarter of 2022.
This in and out, in fact, there is not much left, just two or three hundred million.
Fortunately, with current assets of 431 billion, it is still no problem to repay debts.
But at the same time, there is another problem, such a high debt ratio, such a low cash flow, if the industry has been booming, it is okay, but once the prosperity declines, I don't need to say what kind of consequences.
In contrast, although LONGi's asset-liability ratio is also 60%, there are 48.6 billion yuan in cash lying on people's books.
Even if the current debt of 73 billion yuan is higher than that of JA Technology, it is clear that the debt risk is much smaller.
IV. Summary
The new energy thing counts the time, and it has been popular for several years, and these years can be said to be a golden period of development.
Whether it is the mainland's photovoltaic installed capacity has been expanding at a relatively high rate, the same is true globally.
For example, in 2021, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics increased by 175GW, a year-on-year increase of 21%.
Such a hot market is almost going to cool down.
My view is that this year you can still enjoy the dividends of the expansion period, and next year slowly it will not be.
For most new energy companies, not only photovoltaic, high debt is a common situation, of course, development must be leveraged, this itself is not a problem.
But you can't go into debt blindly.
When the victory and defeat are not scored, everyone thinks that they are the ones who stay.
So while there is still time, the prosperity is still there, and expand wildly.
It can be said that this is also a helpless move, if you do not expand now, then you will begin to slowly decline now, expand now, then there is a small probability that you can successfully run out in the future, and there is a high probability of bankruptcy.
This is not an exaggeration, the number of large and small photovoltaic companies is uncountable, just like running a marathon, people are crowded when starting, and the closer to the end, the fewer people are.
JA Technology used to go through the cycle, relying on "stability", now do you think it is stable?
I made the following table, a summary table of A-share core asset research, which selects hundreds of high-quality leading companies and attaches tens of thousands of words of analysis methods.
In the future, all the analyzed companies will update the data in the above table, and in the future, every weekend will make an in-depth summary of the companies analyzed this week, and the weekly summary will also be put together with the table.
Every time after analyzing the company, some more in-depth views or calculation methods will be added later, and they will also be put together for easy reading, remember to read.
Focus on listed company financial reports and fundamental in-depth analysis.
Many times, profit and loss are just a thought!
Liking and following the continuous update of content can avoid many risks for you.
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