Ostrich spirit and exaggeration before and after the pandemic

The article is a voice input method input. If there are various errors in the text of the paragraph, please understand, the author has judged people with two attitudes, but the views on the epidemic are written at the beginning, ordinary mind, habits and personal prevention, there is nothing that cannot be discussed, as long as it is on the basis of seeking truth from facts.

The article is written by epidemic prevention science enthusiasts, there must be many immature views, please correct, the author never plagiarizes anyone's article, but epidemic prevention science must be the result of extensive data.

Data references:

The author writes the article based on science, and if you have any objections to some of the data quoted in the article, please raise it with the author. The 2020 judgment article on the r20 value in The Lancet and the article in The Lancet on the strength of viral toxicity are described by the authors in previous articles.

Regarding the question about the virus r0 value, the data I cited is,

xbb 1.5 26

BA5 is about 18.6

Ba2 13.3

Delta is 5~8

The original virus was 3.2

If the data is inconsistent with what you quote, it is purely normal, and there is no fixed value for the judgment of r0 value, as long as it is approximate and close, we should recognize each other.

Here the author puts forward a point of view, not that the greater the R0 value, the more serious the epidemic, this I have a special article for a process of judgment, here the recognition of medical views is necessary

3 Regarding CT standards, there are 4 concepts,

Confirmed patients, asymptomatic patients (CT less than 35)

Confirmed infection and asymptomatic infection (initial screening CT35~40)

4. Detection of IgG and Igm for antibodies

5. Cross-epidemic between virus strains of the same series and different series of virus strains

There are two articles, one of which is a practical awareness problem, such as direct respiratory infection or touch infection, which is very important.

Body:

Ostrich spiritual successor

What is the ostrich spirit? Bury your head in the sand and then think in your heart the question is, I can't see, I can't see, you don't tell me, you don't tell me.

What are these human characteristics? You can't talk about the epidemic, in fact, all of us know, when talking about the epidemic, we can think of the difficult state of the past three years, but the question we must know is, do you think that you have experienced such a state, which of us has not experienced it?

China did something worthy of the whole world, but some countries did something sorry for China, ostrich spiritists, they never understood where the covid came from and also determined what policy we achieved at that time.

At that time, the first generation of the new crown was found here that this matter is really what we reported first, in fact, I always thought that we should not report first, for three years I have been suppressing this topic, not talking about this matter, in fact, the international condemnation of us at that time, so that our international environment was unprecedentedly threatened, the citizens of some countries are not friendly to us, if you have a little memory, you can reflect the various situations at that time. So we have a comprehensive strict epidemic prevention policy, from the aspect of international environmental and social health and safety, we must consider such issues, we have sealed ourselves, then when they have been frantically accusing us, those variants that occur later, are they still related to us? In fact, in the past three years, all of our epidemics have come from abroad, from the initial generation of the virus, to Delta, to Omicron, each of us has experienced such days, and even happened to us for a lifetime.

We thought that the fact that scientists on the mainland bravely discovered the virus was a very honorable thing, a matter that benefited all mankind, but some countries made up some conspiracy theories to insult us. We respect the medical scientists on the mainland, but this incident also proves another problem, when there are new virus strains, after other countries have emerged, we will report, there is no big difference, we are not obliged to do good things for them.

During the most prevalent period of influenza in the United States, the world adopted an inclusive attitude towards them, such as where did the new crown come from? I personally think it's the United States, but the United States will lie. Thick-skinned do not admit that you can nail the geometry of the people?

We also saw how foreign countries dealt with us when we announced the liberalization ?? Many countries tighten their restrictions on us in this way, because they must have thought about such a question in their minds, will China, a country with a large population, produce new variants?

But we should be smart, we all know that Delta came to find India, Omicron probably came from South Africa, but whenever the first generation of these important variants is found, I don't know if we find that there is no important branch of the new coronavirus variant, it is difficult to appear in the United States, whether it is found and not reported, or wait for other countries to find and then report, I have doubts about this matter. Don't think too well of them, with him will not tell the world, this is how I know certain countries in the West.

Under this premise, the ostrich spirit has reappeared in some people, that is, if you do not talk about it, there will be no new crown, if you do not report, there will be no new crown, but a country's hospital will not lie, when the patient exists, the virus strain changes more and more, do you think burying your head in the sand is over??

I hate people who exaggerate the epidemic, but I hate people who dare not admit it when it happens. When an epidemic occurs in an area, the run phenomenon of hospitals, do you think that you don't talk about it? When will our countrymen be able to do it, whether there is or not??

What are the signs of the end of the pandemic? It is that the large-scale epidemic infection population cannot be formed, the mortality rate is reduced, and the equilibrium point has been reached, and it will not be as large as the first time in the future, I think this is enough. Just like the flu, every year will form a period of epidemic, you will not feel that there is anything wrong with him, this is purely a matter of mentality change, in fact, the author has always been very optimistic about the epidemic. What if you are not optimistic?

As the highest unit of preventive science in the mainland, we have no reason not to trust him, but we must be clear that such a large epidemic spans such a long time, and he also has mistakes, we must understand this problem. Not to mention Chinese experts, Chinese and Western experts should look at them from the same perspective of development.

A spokesman for the CDC a few days ago, the spokesman for the epidemic said that this wave of the epidemic is nearing the end, which is the result of statistics. But what exactly are the characteristics of RNA viruses? is infinite variability, how far away is this wave of the epidemic and the next wave of the epidemic, we do not need to avoid, for example, Japan is about 8 rounds of the epidemic, the United States is also a multiple rounds of about the epidemic, including the Netherlands, in fact, they have engaged in a policy of universal immunity, their future is the future of China, we are synchronized with the world, there is no need to avoid this problem.

In the spirit of being responsible for their own people, China Disease Control and experts, in a timely manner, announced the situation of patients, there was no problem, and the people described their epidemic truthfully, and there was no problem.

Here we must have a conclusion, which may sound uncomfortable to you, but it is true.

As an RNA virus, the new crown virus will accompany humans for a long time, and one sentence can illustrate this problem, that is, 26 English letters are not enough in the face of the naming of the new crown virus. You can choose not to see him, you can also choose not to talk about him, but the characteristics of this virus is that there is no intention to defecate, this virus simply cannot survive, this author has done some models to prove this problem, the early article everyone to read by themselves, here we use an affirmative tone to tell you directly, in the future the new crown virus will be a normal virus for human beings.

But you can think on the bright side, the flu, which is also an RNA virus, has been with us for 100 years, what is your current mentality? In fact, you don't have any mentality, it's nothing more than when it's the flu season, pay a little attention to your own epidemic prevention problems, the new crown has also developed to the present, since it has become a Class B B virus, it can only be so.

If we can't realistically describe the characteristics of the new coronavirus strain and give early warning to our own residents, do you think it is possible? The mainland government is responsible for the health of its people.

In a word, I want to tell the ostrich that realistic description is the only rule for dealing with the epidemic.

Exaggerated status quo

What is called an exaggerator: fever, pain, self-feeling is the new crown, without even a test, he can judge that he is the new crown, what to say when posting? Yang!

Here I have criticized this phenomenon under many posts, many people did not even have an antigen test when they posted, and directly said that they were new crown, I don't know why he defined it this way. The reason why many people confuse the flu with the new crown is that the two have similar symptoms in symptoms, such as many people think they have a cold during the antigen test, but you need to know how he determined that he had a cold? At the earliest time, there were many people who did not admit that they were new crown and thought that they were cold, I will not say much about this, but we will make a summary here.

Here we can only summarize with the concept of probability

When testing for the new crown antigen, if you are two bars, and it is different antigens from multiple manufacturers, and the conclusion is two bars or multiple tests are two bars, then you have a more than 99% probability of being a new crown patient, which means that the accuracy rate is very high when the two bars are high.

But if you have a cold, pain, runny nose and other phenomena, just use the new crown antigen test, all the time, different moments are a bar, then you may be a flu cold or norovirus.

In fact, every patient should know such a problem, the new crown has its antigen, influenza A also has its antigen, for example, there is this connection on Taobao, you go to see for yourself, in front of some nervous people, we can't talk about these things, because they will tell others that I am in business and do nucleic acid, anyway, I don't know what his thoughts think.

To ostrich spiritualists, or exaggerators, both seriously lack the spirit of science, and to be honest, both are hateful. When a person distinguishes the worldview by good and bad, you can no longer debate with him, I told a netizen such a thing, each of our fathers may be great and kind fathers in our minds, but what others know about your father you can't control.

If you don't test, you won't get sick, if you don't report, you won't get sick, like a country like India, everything is harmonious and beautiful, but because of the new crown people who died, there are people. Who occupies better medical resources, who has a higher chance of survival, who has a better body with a higher chance of survival, is a typical law of the jungle, survival of the fittest, I have nothing to say about them, as long as they are infected, wearing masks and not infecting others This is enough, as for what he says, it doesn't matter, everyone should have an attitude to the epidemic

And those who want to go back to the strict epidemic prevention era of the past. Some people can't work, he can't survive, the number of this group of people is not a small number, always thinking about home isolation, do you want to live people's lives?

I can guarantee the ticket here, we can't go back to the era of strict epidemic prevention, don't think that when there is public opinion on the Internet, it seems that we can return to the era of strict epidemic prevention, that is absolutely impossible, you don't understand the first paragraph of my article, you will not understand this problem, our country has resisted for us for three years, but the person who has done the most is yourself, the real problem is that we have actually resisted for the world for three years. We are a WTO country, we can't do a total closure in terms of the exchange of goods and people, that era is gone, stop thinking about things like home isolation.

Seeking truth from facts is our only way out, and the author is not the self-media in your hearts.

I only have one advice for these two types of people, if you have symptoms, put the mask on, try not to infect the people around you, you can't do what can't be done, you just do it well. Those who are not infected are afraid of contact with society. , just now we have already said that the new crown virus is an RNA virus is a long-term virus, how many years are you going to do it?

When I first let go of the policy, I criticized it. I told them, I said that we can step by step to separate and open, gradually advance, so that medical resources no longer run on, in fact, the author's article in October and November pointed out such a problem, but unfortunately we people are in danger of others will not listen, until one day, I opened an article and saw that my article was read by more than 1 million people, I realized such a problem, when things happen, no one will pay attention.

The author proposed the concept of R0 value at the beginning of 2020, but I didn't know that the concept I mentioned was the r0 value, many people asked me, why did you mention such a number at that time, to be honest, I was to trace the source, because from the number of patients at that time, combined with how many people each person can infect, we can deduce the epidemic that occurred in the end, so that we can wash away the grievances of our country. I am an engineering person, not a medical expert, and I have been a so-called epidemic prevention enthusiast for three years. Don't think that I write articles to make money, the money I take in Toutiao, I have all kinds of screenshots, I can give you all to netizens, this money is of little use to me. I don't want to be famous even more, because I'm two numbers, is it easier to make money with V? I didn't bring it! Don't put the set of money you make from media on me, I'm talking about science, you're talking about banknotes, you can't understand me, but I may not understand you.

If a science lover cannot fight for the honor of our country, then what a broken article to write, like a child the other day said this, reading for the rise of China, I very much agree with his words, because I have written many such articles.

There is only one question, and I am full of doubts, of course, my personal doubts

We all know that whether a person is positive or negative is based on CT35 as the standard, but in fact, when we volunteer, we know that a person is infected with people in the range of 35~40, and some people also have symptoms. Until 2022, we will use CT40 as the standard. After changing to CT35, then we will have 4 types of people, confirmed patients, asymptomatic patients, confirmed infections and asymptomatic infections. The death of the new crown in our country is based on the patient's standard, I think so, if we are internationally connected, then let's do it, but in terms of determining whether a person is dead, should we change it?

What is the next wave of workhorse variants? (FYI)

Unfortunately, I used the blood transfusion method to judge this method, we all know that there are BA5.2BA5.1bf7bq and so on in the BA5 series. The BA2 series also has BA275BA276xbb and so on. The areas of widespread infection in China are BA5.2 and bf7, and in the 6-month range, the virus we are most likely to infect should be Xbb, not bq, for the simple reason that the same series of viruses and the characteristics of different series of viral infections. But the author has a different opinion, for example, the author thinks, for example, in Tibet and a certain coastal area (the virus they are immune to is the BA2 series), their characteristics are different from other vast areas, and I prefer BQ. I submitted a special article for this and conducted relevant analysis for the guidance of epidemic prevention scientists. The new virus that emerged in Thailand is not something I do not understand, so I will not paraphrase it here.

Maybe we just need one rule, try not to infect others when we have symptoms, and that's enough. If you try your best, I think that's enough

Whether you like it or not, the new crown virus is around us, we humans can coexist with the influenza virus until this moment, when we have nothing to do with it, we can only coexist with it, wait for the great development of medical science and technology, we can solve the huge problem.

Someone told me such a question, in fact, I know it very well, once upon a time when the old lady went to do something, I deeply despised, for example, they bought salted salt and grabbed garlic, which is incredible for us, during the epidemic, someone asked me such a question. What do you do when the old lady and the old man go to grab the goods? This question really knocked me down. Because when the epidemic was open, I remembered such a problem when I didn't have medicine, when he went to grab these things, we followed it and it may be right, and no one gave it to you when there was no medicine.

But how did this problem come about? It must give us food for thought. I hope that there will be no more medical runs in this life, and I wrote this article on this basis, because we can only calm down if we seek truth from facts, and now the opposition between the two kinds of people makes us confused

The unpredictability of the epidemic is a world-recognized problem, few countries can accurately judge the specific time or peak of the next wave of the epidemic can only be a rough estimation process, in this regard experts make what predictions, we as outsiders must follow. I was one of the first to criticize experts for using data from the strict epidemic prevention era to calculate data after opening, but I agree with some experts in judging the next wave of the epidemic and its direction after opening. A person should not have black and white thinking, people will support others who are not right, we will raise objections, which is also the discussion method advocated by the author about things and not people.

After we form natural immunity or because vaccines form immunity, because everyone's antibodies, the time to weaken to the extent that they can be infected is inconsistent, so the local scattered epidemic is the mainstream in the future.

In fact, I respect a certain disease control expert, but his idea of having an epidemic during the Spring Festival is beyond my imagination. The internationally accepted period of antibody weakening is between three and six months. According to this inference, we will probably have other outbreaks in batches after March 10, and this is also based on the fact that new virus strains have come in our country. I don't know why he put this conclusion at the end of January and the beginning of February ?? However, this comrade has made relevant corrections, which is commendable. In fact, this expert is an expert I admire.

A netizen asked me today how to deal with the virus, in fact, how can I be qualified to answer this question, but I think only 12 words of mantra is enough.

Face bravely, not afraid of the virus, personal epidemic prevention.

You can't talk about it, it's all there, and we can only habitually be neighbors with it. Over time, each of us learns our own set of defenses based on our own experiences.

And I have an expectation, I don't know if I can get a response from experts, what is the expectation? I think as the R0 value of this virus increases, my understanding is that the virulence of this virus may decline to a level that we can accept, of course, this is just a wish, because in a Lancet magazine someone has shown that the toxicity of the original virus Omicron is decreasing, but the note to this article has written another paragraph, and some scientific figures object.

When we get used to living with it, over time, where there will be any fear, or self-confidence, just normalize the mind.

A single sentence can represent a future epidemic, with or without it. That is to describe the future situation of the epidemic realistically. Only when each of us becomes normal, what else can we not solve?